Lifetime poll: Obama's performance among women
by Blazers Edge, Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 07:25:36 PM EDT
So the topline number is an unsurprising 49-38 lead for Obama over McCain among women voters interviewed by the Lifetime network. The lead stems mainly from Obama's overwhelming performance among Hispanic and African-American women. Obama still has some work to do with white women as he is trailing McCain 47-38, which is a larger deficit than Kerry had against Bush among white women.
The more interesting number is how these women responded when asked about either candidate taking a women as his running mate. Surprisingly, 20% of these voters would be less likely to vote for McCain if he ran with a woman while 15% would be more likely to vote for him. With Obama, 29% of these voters (twice as many as the number for McCain) indicated that they were more likely to vote for him if he did run with a woman while 15% would be less likely to vote for him.
As for those women interviewed who voted for HRC, 47% indicated that they were more likely to support Obama if he ran with a woman while only 4% said they were less likely to vote for him.
Favorable/Unfavorable among these voters: Obama 53/28, McCain 37/31
Ten percent remain undecided (I suppose that means 3% will vote third-party or not vote at all); if Obama splits this ten percent, he will end up defeating McCain by a 54-43 margin among women, which may the biggest disparity among this demographic group in quite some time. McCain would probably need to win 70% of the white male vote (which may be possible and what McCain may be aiming for judging by the way he performed in Sturgis) to defeat Obama if Obama beat McCain by double digits among women.