IL-14 Assessment: Don't Let the NRCC Spin You

The following is a memo regarding the real political story in IL-14.  The mainstream media has decided that the spin coming from the NRCC that this seat is red should be reported as fact.  

The truth is, this seat is very vulnerable to a Democrat with Bill Foster's background and experience.  

Full memo after the jump.  Learn more about Foster here

-- TOM
Campaign Manager

To: Interested Parties
From: Thomas C. Bowen
Re: Vulnerability Assessment of IL-14

As former Speaker Hastert makes his intentions known to voters in Illinois' 14th Congressional district today, it should be kept mind that  IL-14 is now a vulnerable Republican seat regardless of the former Speaker's decision to seek reelection or not.

Ultimately, Bill Foster's background, voter dissatisfaction with Bush's mismanagement of the war in Iraq and government, demographic changes and political factors make IL-14 a very winnable district for Bill Foster.

Voters Want Change - Bill Foster Embodies Change.

More than any time in recent history, voters desperately want change from the broken system in Washington.  This is evident in the "Right Track, Wrong Track" numbers across the nation and apply in IL-14 according to a poll conducted for the Foster campaign in April by Global Strategy Group (GSG) where 65% of voters believed the nation was "off on the wrong track." 


  • Voters are looking for a fresh face and Bill Foster's background as a Scientist and a Businessman fits that profile.
  •  
  • Foster opposes Bush's wrong-headed policies on Iraq and wants to bring a responsible end to the war as quickly as possible.  In 2006, Foster took action to end the war by working on the Get Out the Vote program for then Captain Patrick Murphy, the only Iraq veteran elected to Congress.

  • As a scientist, Foster has experience solving complex problems; as a businessman, he has experience solving problems close to home like meeting payrolls and budgeting for the future.

  • Voters respond to Foster's background.  When voters are read a short bio on his candidacy, they prefer him to Speaker Hastert by a 3 point margin, 43-40.

  • Foster spent 22 years raising his family in the Fox Valley and working at Fermi Lab National Accelerator Laboratory.

George W. Bush - Dominates voter's views of Republican Candidates.

George W. Bush's record as president dominates voters' impressions of Republicans across the country.  The damage done is evident in the 14th District.

  • From Iraq to Hurricane Katrina to spending to energy policy, Republicans receive low marks from voters on basic competence as a result of the Bush presidency.

  • GSG found that the generic ballot test, where a voter is asked if he/she prefers a Democrat or a Republican representing them in congress, resulted in Democrats leading 40%-30%.  This is truly astounding for a district the respected Cook Political Index pegs a +5 Republican district.

  • Voters prefer Democratic approaches to issues by double digits on nearly every national issue, even taxes.

Demographics - Growth, New voters. 

  • According to the US Census Bureau, Kendall County is the 3rd fastest growing county in the entire nation and Kane County has 90K new residents since 2000.

  • Voters who enter this electorate will be change voters.

  • The I-88 corridor is home to many new, high-tech industries and potentially would be open to supporting a scientist with a high-tech background.

Politics - Durbin, Obama, Labor, Party Strength.

  • Senate Majority Leader Durbin stands for reelection in 2008 and has minimal opposition.

  • Senator Obama could potentially lead the presidential ticket.  In 2004, Senator Obama received an astounding 72% of the vote statewide in IL.

  • Organized labor has a significant presence in this district.  Members from the building trades work on much of the construction growth in the area.

  • Two open State Senate seats were captured by Democrats in 2006.  In 2002, State Rep Linda Chapa LaVia flipped a GOP house seat.  In 2005, Democrat Tom Weisner was elected Mayor of Aurora, Illinois' 2nd largest city.  The Mayor of Dixon, Illinois - Ronald Regan's hometown - is a Democrat.  But then again, so was Reagan at one point.

  • Republicans have no statewide elected officials, no majorities in either legislative branch of government in Illinois and no majorities in Congress.

  • The most recent fundraising numbers nationally have Democrats out-raising Republicans in both the presidential race and at the congressional committee level; the first time since campaign finance limits were implemented in the 70's.  The DCCC has approximately 19 million dollars cash on hand.  The NRCC has approximately 2.

Crossposted at Daily Kos, Open Left & Prairie State Blue

Tags: Bill Foster, Congress, hastert, IL-14, Iraq, Patrick Murphy, Science (all tags)

Comments

6 Comments

Long travel day today

So, I won't be able to hang out in comments, but I'll look them over tomorrow.  --TOM

by BillFoster4Congress 2007-08-17 04:51AM | 0 recs
Re: IL-14 Assessment: Don't Let the NRCC Spin You

As usual the Repubs are full of it. There are at least 20 Democratic Reps in districts far more red than this one. On paper IL-14 looks very winnable with the right candidate. Maybe that candidate is Bill Foster. Good luck to the campaign.

by conspiracy 2007-08-17 05:25AM | 0 recs
Re: IL-14 Assessment: Don't Let the NRCC Spin You

I exaggerate, it is actually 16, but the larger point stands.

by conspiracy 2007-08-17 05:36AM | 0 recs
Re: IL-14 Assessment: Don't Let the NRCC Spin You

I was right the first time - Cook lists 25 seats as being as or more Republican than IL-14:

http://cookpolitical.com/races/report_pd fs/2006_house_potcomp_dec20.pdf

by conspiracy 2007-08-17 05:58AM | 0 recs
Re: IL-14 Assessment: Don't

Hastert was very popular in his district, despite coddling child molesters and enriching himself with the last highway bill.

This is definitely a winnable district as an open seat.

by JJCPA 2007-08-17 05:52AM | 0 recs
if the democratic nominee is competitive...

by bored now 2007-08-17 10:06AM | 0 recs

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