U of C Ohio Poll - McCain Has Slight Edge

U of Cincinnati's Polling Report shows McCain ahead with 48% to Obama's 44% in a telephone interview of 775 likely voters, MOE + or - 3.5%.  The Ohio Poll does have a history of oversampling GOP voters, so don't put too much weight on it.

http://www.ipr.uc.edu/documents/op091208 .pdf

19% said they might change their mind, 4% were undecided.

Gender breakdown - 45% of women support McCain, 47% support Obama - that lead needs to increase to between 50% and 55%.  Big Dog is the last Dem who won here who knew how to get those large margins of women voters.

Tags: Election 2008, mccain, obama, Ohio (all tags)

Comments

27 Comments

Re: U of C Ohio Poll - McCain Has Slight Edge

The only poll that I have seen that has him behind is the Quinnipiac poll .

Like I said I see a lot of reasons for him being ahead in Ohio , he announced the Palin pick there and he has held rallies over there with her and she definitely would be helping out with working class folks there.

However i don't see why Obama would be expanding his lead in that state in the last two weeks like Quinnipiac shows..

I would like to see a surveyusa poll of OH , they polled it exactly right in the primary , even the margin was right...

by lori 2008-09-12 08:01AM | 0 recs
Re: U of C Ohio Poll - McCain Has Slight Edge

SUSA was great in the primary, but has been erratic in the general election.

The Ohio Poll is slightly GOP-leaning but is pretty reputable. I recall in 2004 it had Bush leading by much larger margins in Ohio than the final result.

by elrod 2008-09-12 08:05AM | 0 recs
Re: U of C Ohio Poll - McCain Has Slight Edge

One demographic that won't be reached in any telephone poll are college students.
I know that college students have not proven themselves to be very good about voting.

But Ohio has lots and lots of college students. I think that I heard the figure that it has the most in the country. And with OSU being here, I wouldn't be surprised.

I go to college in Ohio and the activism both in registering students to vote in Ohio and for Barack Obama is pretty astounding.

I'm not saying that Obama is definitely going to win Ohio. But I wouldn't trust any poll that shows Obama winning or that shows McCain winning.

by pomology 2008-09-12 08:07AM | 0 recs
Re: U of C Ohio Poll - McCain Has Slight Edge

Pennsylvania is pretty similar in terms of college students being energized (on both sides).  And I still haven't gotten the explanation of how the pollsters take into account those of us who no longer have landlines.  I know they make an attempt to weight, but how?  Poll more young people?  I am pretty confident that people without landlines are more likely to be liberal, though maybe it's the other way around (liberals more likely to forgo landlines).

by ProgressiveDL 2008-09-12 08:37AM | 0 recs
Re: U of C Ohio Poll - McCain Has Slight Edge

Well, college students definitely don't have landlines.

by pomology 2008-09-12 11:02AM | 0 recs
Re: U of C Ohio Poll - McCain Has Slight Edge

This is an urban myth.  Reputable polling companies have adjusted to poll for "landlineless" people.  Cell phones are polled too, etc.  Look it up- I heard Mario Solis Marich debunking this notion.

by easyE 2008-09-12 12:46PM | 0 recs
Re: U of C Ohio Poll - McCain Has Slight Edge

I actually did.  And the problem is that while a couple pollsters (Pew, at least) have called cell phones, they don't make any distinction between "cell phone only," "cell phone mostly," and "both cell phone and landline" respondents.  So they call cell phones, but they aren't correctly weighting for the fact that of the 14% of people who have only cell phones, most are under 30 (and therefore, more likely to be liberal).  

More difficult, "only about 10% of respondents in landline samples are under age 30, which is roughly half of what it should be according to the U.S. Census."

http://pewresearch.org/pubs/901/cell-pho nes-polling-election-2008

So, again, the pollsters try to fix this by weighting those respondents twice as much.  But now you have increasingly small samples being weighted increasingly more, for both cell and landline respondents.  This means that while the overall margin of error is still ok, the margin of error for these specific subgroups is definitely growing.  

Another problem is that no automated pollster is legally allowed to call cell phones, under the Telephone Consumer Protection Act.  So automated polls are NEVER calling cell phones.  

Here's what I think: the polls may be statistically acceptable, but I think all the weighting and the fact that they can not properly get large enough sample sizes of "cell only" voters means that they are woefully underrepresenting young, technologically savvy voters.  I guess we will know in 2 months.

by ProgressiveDL 2008-09-12 05:28PM | 0 recs
Ohio slipping away

Increasingly, it looks like Obama will ahve to carve out a victory by winning NM, IA and CO.

OH, NV, VA and FL are long shots in my opinion.

by ann0nymous 2008-09-12 08:08AM | 0 recs
Confidence Slipping Away

Pfft. VA is the longest of shots. The race is very competitive in the others,a nd there is reason to believe Palin may be hurting McCain in FL and CO more than it's helping. Stop the defeatocrat hand wringing

by iohs2008 2008-09-12 08:15AM | 0 recs
Re: Confidence Slipping Away

It is not defeatocratist in my opinion. Ohio is really challenging (always was), but right now
I think Obama will loose by 1-2 %.

I think he has a much better shot at wiinning CO+IA+NM. That will be enough.

by ann0nymous 2008-09-12 08:27AM | 0 recs
Re: Confidence Slipping Away

Yeah, I think Ohio is a tough sell for Obama too.

by the mollusk 2008-09-12 08:33AM | 0 recs
If the election were held today, maybe

But all these polls use historical turnout models, and in 2004, AA turnout was less than half. Remember, these are models from surveys, not actual surveys. I say we should have a moratorium on poll obsession when McCain is still onhis bounce.

by iohs2008 2008-09-12 08:45AM | 0 recs
Re: If the election were held today, maybe

How many more days? weeks? will it take before  the bounce apologists admit that this is not a bounce but a surge a shift that won't be reversed until something else significant happens?

by wasanyonehurt 2008-09-12 09:13AM | 0 recs
Re: Ohio slipping away

The difference in the poll was 31 people.

The margin of error is 27 people.

Yeah. Ohio sure is slipping away.

Obama should give it up for lost.

by pomology 2008-09-12 08:19AM | 0 recs
Re: Ohio slipping away

Agreed.  He has to defend Pennsylvania and Michigan like crazy too because losing either one of them is game over.  This is the "perfect chain of states" strategy we warned about in the spring, because all chains are as weak as their weakest link.  

A resurfacing of primary issues "what Obama really thinks of Pennsylvania" or "Michigan, why didn't Obama want to count your vote then?" could seal the deal.  

by BPK80 2008-09-12 08:21AM | 0 recs
Re: Ohio slipping away

Obama's chain is this (from strongest to weakest IMO) - IA, PA, MI, CO, NM/NV

McCain's chain is this (strongest to weakest again, IMO) - VA, FL, OH, NM/NV, CO.

Which one is weaker?

by the mollusk 2008-09-12 08:32AM | 0 recs
Re: Ohio slipping away

Obama's is weaker.  Nevada leans right and you left out New Hampshire & Wisconsin.    

The Democrat needs to be up nationally by about 1% since the Electoral College system favors the GOP.  

Finally, I find Florida much more strong for McCain than Virginia.  Virginia is swingier this cycle, IMO.  I'd even say Obama has a better shot in Virginia than he does in Ohio.  It's a bit more favorable demographically with a lot of progressives in Northern Virginia and a heavy base of AA's throughout the state.    

by BPK80 2008-09-12 05:46PM | 0 recs
No, he can win Ohio

He has a good ground campaign here, just needs to change his campaign message.

Politico has a good summary of the advice Bill Clinton likely gave Obama yesterday:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/090 8/13394.html

Obama needs to talk less about himself and more about the issues voters are concerned about.  Making the race all about Obama the candidate makes him vulnerable to GOP attacks.  If he makes the campaign message about specific ideas,specific proposals and overall vision for the future, the attacks don't stick.  He has to make his message and campaign be about the voters and their lives, not his.  In Ohio, that's jobs, jobs, economy, jobs.

by Betsy McCall 2008-09-12 08:40AM | 0 recs
Re: No, he can win Ohio

That advice list which is an excellent list and spot on with what would likely be Bill Clinton's advice, is nevertheless purely conjecture, an assumption.

So despite saying he'll do anything asked of him.

Nobody knows what was spoken during the 2 hr meeting but: a) nobody saw a public handshake whatsoever even in photo-op or parting between the two [yes, could have happened in private] and b) Clinton had "other obligations" with his foundation and can't help until the end of September

Different people will interpret the meeting differently

by wasanyonehurt 2008-09-12 09:53AM | 0 recs
If Obama is smart

He will take Clinton's advice.  He knows how to win an election and dodge GOP dirty tricks.  

In the end, it has to be Obama who makes the changes and wins the election.

by Betsy McCall 2008-09-12 01:28PM | 0 recs
Obama Needs to Shake Things Up

Perhaps, Obama should return to give speeches at the college campuses. At the campuses he can get the big crowds and a lot of volunteers to knock on doors for him. He can start using his oratory skills that got people excited about him in the first place.

Also, part of Obama's appeal was that he was engaged in a historic campaign because if elected, he would be the first non-white president. He convinced primary voters that electing the first African-American as president was a bigger deal than electing the first woman president. Somehow, the Republicans have convinced people that electing the first woman vice president is a bigger deal than electing the first African-American as president. Obama has to bring back that sense that he is engaged in a historic campaign, and yes that is change.

by Zzyzzy 2008-09-12 08:42AM | 0 recs
He needs to shift the focus to voters

and talk more about what they need, what their problems are, and less about the story of Obama.

It makes him too vulnerable to GOP attacks when the race is all about him as a candidate and less about the voters themselves.

by Betsy McCall 2008-09-12 08:47AM | 0 recs
See the Front Page

I think Jerome Armstrong front page peice citing George Lakoff gives Obama good advice. Obama needs to go back being Obama. I think Obama can still be inspiring and connect with people about the economy through effective story telling. Obama should talk to that man who lost his factory job and to that working mother who can't get health insurance. Then he should tell their stories.

by Zzyzzy 2008-09-12 09:15AM | 0 recs
When the campaign is about him only

he's vulnerable to attack.

So far Obama's campaign has been about two people, him and McCain.

He needs to focus on voters needs and the future. How else to get people to support him than to communicate to them that he understands their issues and will help them?

by Betsy McCall 2008-09-12 01:34PM | 0 recs
Obama has to be Obama

I think that's what got him this far.   Whenever candidates try to change their styles it comes off as kinda fake and ineffective.  One exception was Hillary Clinton but I actually think that he change was more toward her true self -- she unchained herself from the high-pay consultants and was herself, and thereby one the last third of the primary season.

I feel solid on IA for Barack.   I don't believe that MI and PA are in much real danger.  They tend to lean blue and in this year that will be enough.   Where do the rest of the electoral votes come from?   Next up I like NV and NM but these w/IA aren't enough.  He needs CO, VA, FL, or OH.   None of these look great now.   To me FL and VA will be toughest.   OH and CO seem better bets -- note that he polls well in CO - I think having the convention there helped it.   If we can take IA, NV/NM, CO we win.

by activatedbybush 2008-09-12 09:36AM | 0 recs
Obama needs to talk about voters

and what the people of the US need.  It makes it much harder for the GOP to attack him.

If the essence and theme of his campaign is tied to US voters and the future of the country, then attacks against him are also perceived as attacks against US voters.

Put them out front, in the ads, etc.  Being the star of your campaign makes you vulnerable to attack - ask John Kerry.

by Betsy McCall 2008-09-12 01:31PM | 0 recs
I agree

So now we also need to make McCain pay the price for his personality-driven approach.  Doing this, and a return to the issues, will win

by activatedbybush 2008-09-13 04:00PM | 0 recs

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