Not necessarily. I can see that scenario playing out, but I think a more comfortable Obama win is probably just as, if not more, possible.
Actually, I think Obama is going to comfortably win the popular vote. I do, however, thing he could well fall short in Ohio and Florida. I think there is an outside shot McCain wins the electoral college but loses the popular vote by a signifcant margin - I'm talking 4 to 5%. Now THAT would cause a bit of a scandal.
That said, I think Nevada is going Obama. I think pollsters tend to overpoll Republicans in western states. And Obama is way outperforming Kerry in the early voting.
I thought the primary campaign going on as long as it did was very good for Obama. I really think this now. I kinda thought it at the time.
I was actually giving Clinton money in Feb/Mar to keep her in for several reasons - because I wanted to see Obama fully "vetted" I felt that if Clinton could beat him, he didn't deserve it anyway. I was also nervous about all the baggage that might come up and I just felt Clinton represented less of a risk. However, there were things about Obama I liked better. On balance, I wanted to play it safe.
I was basically undecided throughout the primary season. As such, I thought it would actually be beneficial for the party to have a tough primary fight. It is clear now that it was.
If you look at the trendlines, Ohio is going to be the toughest nut to crack and I do think this poll - as it has - overstates Obama's support there.
HOWEVER, PA is not a toss up state. Obama is going to win there. He has led basically every poll in PA since June. People need to understand that PA is considerably more liberal than Ohio and even to an extent Michigan. I've lived in both OH and PA, trust me. Eastern PA, even outside Philly metro, which is 40% of the state's voters, is probably a much closer match to NJ or NY. Western PA is much more like Ohio. But nevertheless, this makes PA a state that is fundamentally better for Obama.
As to FL, I wouldn't take anything for granted. But real movement has occurred there and if the election were today, Obama would win the state. That doesn't mean it won't swing back either. But FL is a state McCain cannot lose.
Really, McCain is on the back foot right now. Ohio and Florida are states McCain has to win, but Obama doesn't. And he's losin them both right now - at least he's certainly losing FL.
Its not a knock out blow by any means - at least not as the story stands - but it is not a pretty story for McCain, as it ties in to past unseemly behavior - its starts to create an image of McCain as a leacherous mysogynist. Remember, Cindy McCain is a product of an affair too - and 17 years his junior. This fits a pattern of his behavior, which is dumping women for younger women, more attractive women as they age. This does not make him look good, especially to female voters.
are basically mainstream liberal to moderate Democrats today.
But this doesn't mean their work as historians should thus be discarded or somehow viewed as suspect. Indeed, I tend to view as more suspect people who right about historical events from which they have little emotional distance - at least if your criteria is History (with a capital H).