Hillary Wins Florida, and She Wins Big!

Cross-posted at Daily Kos

The Florida primary is now history, and it appears that twice as many Democrats turned out in 2008 than 2004. What did they tell us and how loudly did they say it?  Any analysis tells us that Florida Democrats wants Hillary Clinton to be the nominee, and they said it with persuasiveness loudness.

The vote totals on the Democratic side, with 99 percent of the vote counted, are these:

Hillary    856,944,
Obama   568,930
Edwards 248,930

Hillary is winning with 288,014 votes right now.  Hillary's vote total is 50 percent higher than her nearest competitor on the Democratic side.  Now that's a victory.

Let's mix and order the vote totals of leading Democrats and Republicans:

1.  Hillary 856,944

  1.  McCain 693,425
  2.  Romney 598,152
  3. Obama 568,930
  4. Guiliani 281,703
  5. Huckabee 259,703
  6. Edwards 248,575
  7. Paul 62,060

So Hillary got 23.6 percent more votes than the vaunted John McCain got.  In fact, she got more votes than Guiliani, Huckabee, Edwards, and Paul combined.  Now that's a victory.

Let's put this in even starker perspective.  How many people have voted in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina?

Iowa 221,000
New Hampshire 285,000
Nevada 118,000
South Carolina 530,000

That's a total of 1,154,000 votes.  Hillary win in Florida is only a third less than the total of every vote cast for every candidate in the prior four contests. Now that's a victory.

Tags: 2008 elections, Barack Obama, Democrats, Florida, Hillary Clinton, Iowa, John Edwards, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Nevada, New Hampshire, president, Ron Paul, Rudy Guiliani, South Carolina (all tags)

Comments

48 Comments

This article says it all

about Hillary's Florida "win". (FYI, it's the #1 viewed article on the WaPo website today).

MUCH ADO ABOUT NOT MUCH

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/con tent/article/2008/01/29/AR2008012902998. htmla?nav=hcmodule

"Cheering supporters?  Check.  Election returns on the projection screen?  Check.  Andrea Mitchell and Candy Crowley doing stand-ups?  Check and check.  In fact, the only piece missing from Hillary Clinton's Florida victory party here Tuesday night was a victory..."

Hilarious!!!!

by puma 2008-01-30 01:32AM | 0 recs
Well,

surely we can count the student vote in Florida, can't we?  We don't want to disenfranchise the students now.

by Beltway Dem 2008-01-30 01:45AM | 0 recs
Ha!

For all the Obama campaign's talk of everyone else "disenfranchising" voters, they seem to have no problem disenfranchising Florida Democrats... Hypocrisy, perhaps?

by atdleft 2008-01-30 04:19AM | 0 recs
Re: Ha!

Since Obama never campaigned in FL this seems like empty rhetoric to me. FL and MI are Hillary "wins", a victory without any trophy....

by hopeful 2008-01-30 05:07AM | 0 recs
Re: Ha!

Its a victory. Just like kissing your sister.

by Trey Rentz 2008-01-30 07:29AM | 0 recs
Re: Ha!

You must have a pretty hot sister if you feel this way about her.

by Steve M 2008-01-30 10:16AM | 0 recs
Re: Ha!


I suppose if Hillary wins the nomination, I'll go back to what I was doing before Obama came along... I'll sit on my hands, plug my nose and probably vote for her in November.  I imagine many people my age will do the same without the whole "act of voting" part.

Oh, and she won with only 10% of young people turning out?  Very inspirational, Hillary.  You blow me away... from the voting booth.

by IowaCubs 2008-01-30 09:42AM | 0 recs
Re: Ha!

I'm not sure what you're referring to, but I suspect you're reading that stat completely wrong. I think 10% of the people who voted in FL are young people (not that 10% of young people voted).

Which is to be expected considering:

Florida ranks 5th in highest median age among states .
Florida ranks #1 in percent of people of 65.

http://www.statemaster.com/red/state/FL- florida/peo-people&all=1

by LakersFan 2008-01-30 10:39AM | 0 recs
Re: Ha!

Let me see if I understand correctly how Obama's disenfranchising Florida voters:  Dean and the DNC said "don't hold your primary before this date or it won't count."  FL and MI held their primary before their date, so now their votes don't count, as per the rules established by Howard Dean and the party.

Damn you, Obama!!!  

by schroeder 2008-01-30 08:24AM | 0 recs
sour grapes?

this is what super tuesday is likely to look like. Get used to it.

by MollieBradford 2008-01-30 01:46AM | 0 recs
As I said at daily kos

last night, for that sort of people who dislike the Florida results, Super Tuesday's gonna make them wretch.

by Beltway Dem 2008-01-30 02:02AM | 0 recs
yup
and they are all going to be sitting around scratching their heads wondering why it happened.
Obama's campaign so far has been a lot of wishful thinking and singing la la la la with their fingers in their ears.
by MollieBradford 2008-01-30 02:19AM | 0 recs
Re: This article says it all

Puma your etreme partisanship is no secret to anyone who is a regular at this site. 1.5 million Floridians,  twice the number that voted last time, vote in a primary which was as real as any other. If you and for internal political reasons the DNC and Dana Milbank don't want to recognise the outcome that's fine because we know your much more interested in supporting your candidate than any reality or democracy per se. It's a fairly sad spectacle but not uncommon. We'll have to see whether what happened last night is a more accurate guide to next Tuesday than your and Milbank's denial.      

by ottovbvs 2008-01-30 04:56AM | 0 recs
Re: This article says it all

This is just one more step in the "crowning" of Hillary, who the media decided from day 1 would be the candidate...

by hopeful 2008-01-30 05:10AM | 0 recs
Re: This article says it all

Have you read the article. It doesn't sound like it. It's one long Clinton hit piece so where do you get the media crowning Hillary from. Anyone who reads this and thinks it's pro Hillary probably has a serious reality deficit disorder.

by ottovbvs 2008-01-30 05:37AM | 0 recs
Re: This article says it all

plus Obama won Florida 39-31 amongt Floridians who made up their mind in the last month.

69% of those whose votes were counted yesterday voted over a month ago.

so the win ain't a win.

by rapcetera 2008-01-30 05:45AM | 0 recs
Re: This article says it all

The Washington Post got it right. Just the Clintons again trying to skirt the rules. Everyone, John Edwards, Barack Obama and Hillary agreed not to campaign and abide by the DNC rules. Now when she needs to change the subject after South Carolina and the Kennedy endorsement, she wants to claim a "victory". Laughable.

by commoncents 2008-01-30 06:50AM | 0 recs
Re: Hillary Wins Florida, and She Wins Big!

"If Ted and Caroline Kennedy's endorsement means anything, its first test comes tomorrow in Florida."(Craig Crawford)

Yay Hillary!!!

by samueldem 2008-01-30 01:40AM | 0 recs
Apparently,

Ted and Caroline don't have a huge pull in Florida.  

by Beltway Dem 2008-01-30 01:46AM | 0 recs
YOU ARE WRONG!

read this:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/01/29 /florida-results-show-late_n_83957.html

"Despite losing the state overall by 17 points, Obama actually won more support than Clinton from voters who made up their minds in the last three days (46 percent to 38 percent), in the last week (39-31) and in the last month (47-40)."

The results seem to indicate that Obama picked up significant momentum in Florida following his victories in Iowa and South Carolina, as well as his high-profile endorsements (49 percent of Florida voters said Ted Kennedy's support was important to their decision).

by rapcetera 2008-01-30 05:47AM | 0 recs
Clinton grabbed a night of free press

Her speech came on at about 6:45 in the west and her interviews were all between 7 and 7:30 in the west.  She got a lot of free coverage.

Furthermore the numbers you lay out may be ignored by many in the media, but a lot of smart voters are going to be looking.  They are going to see more evidence that Obama can't win important demographics unless he has 9 months to campaign and 15 million to spend to win them over in a state like Iowa.

by dpANDREWS 2008-01-30 02:26AM | 0 recs
Yep, the media HAD to pay attention...

With Hillary in Florida to thank her supporters, the media couldn't completely ignore the state. Instead, they had to give coverage. This way, the media was forced to put aside the "Obama is Camelot Restored!!" meme they've been pushing for the last 4 days to actually pay attention to what voters say. This shows yet again that Hillary knows how to deal with media, and she knows how to WIN the important swing states for us. :-)

by atdleft 2008-01-30 04:22AM | 0 recs
Re: Hillary Wins Florida

Obama must be dispatched quickly.  McCain is already the GOP nominee.

Aside from the Clinton-hating MSM, ancient losers like Ted Kennedy, very poor campaigners and losers like John Kerry, Bill Bradley, and lost-in-the-shuffle senators and governors--most losers or just bare winners themselves--promulgating Obama, the clear bedrock Democrats have been heard time and again--we won't abandon our very successful WINNING Clintons!

Another astonishing fact, lost in the fawning of the MSM for this three year, not-ready-for-primetime candidate, why, if he is the "next JFK," does Obama need so many people from Oprah to Teddy to Caroline to the MSM to serve as his surrogates?

Why does Obama require the entire parade of Obama maniacs constantly telling us how to vote?  Shouldn't Obama himself, after more than fourteen months of solid national campaigning, and scores of televised debates, have been able to convince the rest of us how "special" he is?

Truth be told, we bedrock Democrats--not all those "indies" and "leaners" who early on descended upon Iowa--do not like what we see.

We did love the peace and prosperity of the Clinton years--and still love the Clinton know-how.

The Clintons fully grasp how to win national elections.  John McCain would dispath the increasingly imploding Barack before the first general election vote were ever cast.

The MSM understands the truth of the entire 2008 campaign: it was not about McCain or Obama, but all about stopping the Clintons.

Not McCain, the dinosaur who is an extension of George Walker Bush, but rather only the terrible candidate Obama now stands in the way of another successful Clinton term.

Florida Democrats know that all too well--and they went to the polls in droves to punctuate that fact.

by lambros 2008-01-30 02:51AM | 0 recs
Re: Hillary Wins Florida, and She Wins Big!

And a big salute and shout out especially to savvy Latino voters who know how to play the Beautiful Game and are playing the political game beautifully. Goal......Goal........ Gooooaaaaalllllll! Go Hillary.

by superetendar 2008-01-30 04:25AM | 0 recs
Re: Hillary Wins Florida, and She Wins Big!

Interesting Victory.

She was held under 50% (Yes folks 49.7% is under 50%) She was held under her Pollster average, Obama easily beat his Pollster average by about 7%.  Hillary did worse then she did in the last state no one could campaign in which was MI, which is odd considering Florida is a state tailor made for her in this primary.  Interesting victory indeed.

by Socks The Cat 2008-01-30 04:51AM | 0 recs
Re: Hillary Wins Florida, and She Wins Big!

Yes total disaster for Clinton. Obama won big last night 33%. The ability of his partisans to find diamonds in mountains of coal is unequalled. Ever thought about prospecting as a career.  

by ottovbvs 2008-01-30 05:39AM | 0 recs
Re: Hillary Wins Florida, and She Wins Big!

Hillary received more votes than the entire 2004 field combined

by sepulvedaj3 2008-01-30 05:55AM | 0 recs
I would like to ask a question..

Why is it a good thing, for a candidate to spend the money given to it by its voters and supporters - to campaign in a state where the delegates will not be counted in convention?

Isn't that a waste of money. Do we want to vote for people who put style over substance?

I am voting for Obama.

by Trey Rentz 2008-01-30 07:40AM | 0 recs
Re: Hillary Wins Florida, and She Wins Big!

One can tell by the above comments just how sadly delusional Obama supporters are.

To begin with, that campaign spent nine months and tens of millions of dollars to bus in total outsiders into Iowa so they might have a head count to give them 38% of caucus goers, yet they clearly lost the bedrock Democrats to Edwards and Clinton that same day.

The anti-Clinton MSM then spun that "victory" into the stratosphere.

After the reality of New Hampshire, Michigan, and Nevada--all Obama losses, everything was concentated upon South Carolina.

South Carolina, the state which the MSM themselves dismissed as racial and unrepresentative when Jesse Jackson claimed it with 64% of the vote in 1988.  

And which obvious fact they flogged Bill Clinton for bringing up.

And so Obama, race-baiting for months there, naturally triumphed--but by losing the lion's share of the non-African-American vote.

Then came Florida, fourth largest state, wherein Clinton trounced Obama (with Edwards yet on the ballot), winning across the board every demographic except African-Americans, and now Obama acolytes try to spin this into insignificance?

Lations have obviously demonstrated--in huge numbers--that they do not want him; likewise huge numbers of women, Jews, Asians, Catholics--well, just about every non-African-American demographic, and there is any other way to spin this except as a disaster for Obama?

Granted that from the outset for the MSM and its minions, this race was neither about McCain nor Obama, but all about stopping the Clintons.

The MSM already have their first honey, McCain, secured for the GOP nod, now they need that last Clinton hater in the bunch, Obama, to somehow go the distance.

But reality insists that Obama, aside from bused-in crowds in Iowa and race-baited South Carolina, has gone nowhere at all.

In my fifty-four years, this is the saddest I have ever viewed political opposition.

After fifteen long years of hate radio and Right Wing pundits, impeachment drives and ceaseless investigations, we Clinton fans know the MSM loathes all things Clinton.

But this year, whether by way of relic Ted Kennedy, or by way of tragic losers John Kerry, Howard Dean, and Bill Bradley, their championing of a three-year novice senator over the accomplished Clintons, has become beyond ridiculous.

What the Florida results clearly revealed is that Obama would be lucky to prevail in African-American communities against John McCain.  After that, McCain becomes a blow-out winner.

That reality has been there throughout 2007 and indeed throughout 2008.  

Too many years of anti-Clinton myopathy has left the MSM deranged.

Reality, even the reality of reality, they may never be able to grasp again.

by lambros 2008-01-30 07:52AM | 0 recs
Re: Hillary is just 6 pts ahead nationally(Gallup!

PRINCETON, NJ -- Barack Obama has now cut the gap with Hillary Clinton to 6 percentage points among Democrats nationally in the Gallup Poll Daily tracking three-day average, and interviewing conducted Tuesday night shows the gap between the two candidates is within a few points. Obama's position has been strengthening on a day-by-day basis. As recently as Jan. 18-20, Clinton led Obama by 20 points. Today's Gallup Poll Daily tracking is based on interviews conducted Jan. 27-29, all after Obama's overwhelming victory in South Carolina on Saturday. Two out of the three nights interviewing were conducted after the high-visibility endorsement of Obama by Sen. Edward Kennedy and his niece Caroline Kennedy.

Clinton's lead in the three-day average is now 42% to Obama's 36%. John Edwards, who dropped out of the race today after Gallup conducted these interviews, ended his quest for the presidency with 12% support. Wednesday night's interviewing will reflect the distribution of the vote choice of former Edwards' supporters as well as the impact, if any, of Hillary Clinton's popular vote win in Florida on Tuesday.

by BDM 2008-01-30 08:03AM | 0 recs
Re: Hillary Wins Florida, and She Wins Big!

Again, the unreality of BDM--a spin on a national Gallup poll BEFORE the results of the staggering Clinton victory in Florida, and taking into account only the positives of Obama in the MSM on the days before.  

As a further unreality, not acknowledging just how badly Obama is doing in most of the key states next Tuesday.

And as a final unreality, trying to spin as a positive the fact that the African-American "race" candidate now has no deflection of non-African-Americans as a result of the departure of John Edwards.

Even if one accepted as fact this 6% difference--weighing only the Obama positive days without the great positive of the Clinton huge win in Florida, that margin alone would be a knock-out in national terms between just two candidates.

Unreality upon unreality upon unreality, all borne out by fifteen years of Clinton hating.

Thank the Lord, come Super Tuesday, we core Democrats at last can reclaim our party.

by lambros 2008-01-30 08:23AM | 0 recs
The McCain factor

It's becoming accepted wisdom that McCains going to get the nod and I suspect this is going to concentrate a few minds next Tuesday. It's done Clinton a huge favor actually him breaking from the pack right now. The Obamanauts can wave all polls they want but I suspect most Democrats know in their gut that in a McCain Obama match up Obama would get his face ripped off. A decision for Obama dooms our chances of recapturing the presidency because I could see at least three reliable blue states in the NE falling to McCain.  

by ottovbvs 2008-01-30 08:58AM | 0 recs
Re: The McCain factor

I could see McCain winning IA, WI and MN if Clinton is on the ballot.

Rasmussen poll today"
McCain 48
Clinton 40

McCain 47
Obama 41

We are in trouble because our party is divided and their is bitter acrimony.

by BDM 2008-01-30 09:34AM | 0 recs
Re: Hillary Wins Florida, and She Wins Big!

Clearly the momentum is on Obama's side. from this poll.

Also Rasmussen's CT poll released yesterday.

Obama 40
Clinton 40
Edwards 11

Edwards and Guliani's with drawls are the news today and Clinton's beauty contest win is not on the news cycle. NY times didn't prominently show it and it got little play in the Washington Post.

Lambros you spin and also cannot see reality.

by BDM 2008-01-30 09:31AM | 0 recs
Man, Clinton supporters love cheerleading

Let's look at some of the facts:

1) It doesn't count.  And since neither candidate campaigned in the state, it's not very representative.

2) Clinton did worse than expectations, Obama did better.

3) Clinton's only won big in states where Obama didn't campaign.

The whole story of this campaign has been, Clinton started with a big lead, due in large part to name recognition and the media treating her as the presumptive nominee early on.  And Obama's gained, and gained, and gained on her.  The better people know Barack Obama, the more they like him.

Now, I don't presume to write any self-congradulatory "and here's what's going to happen on Super Tuesday!" comments, because no one knows what'll happen.  Plus, it's obnoxious as all hell.  But I don't think Florida says anything, other than that Clinton is the "default" candidate for a lot of voters who haven't paid close attention.  Once they get to know Obama, some of them stick with Clinton, some of them go to him.  But it means that the longer the campaign goes on, the better the upside for Obama, and the more of Clinton's support is going to subside.  So it looks like it's a race for her to lock up the nomination before he passes her.  We'll see what happens next week.

by schroeder 2008-01-30 08:52AM | 0 recs
Re: Man, Clinton supporters love cheerleading

"It doesn't count.  And since neither candidate campaigned in the state, it's not very representative"

Have they campaigned in AL. The unreality of the above statement about a primary that attracted 1.5 million double last times is what worries me about you Obamanauts. Nominate this guy and you are handing the election to McCain which is why so many in the media and gop want you to. Hopefully the adults are going to stop you committing suicide.

by ottovbvs 2008-01-30 09:04AM | 0 recs
22 States. Six days.

Likely some smaller states will not have a campaign visit at all or at best an airport rally, and nobody has the money to swamp the airwaves in every media market in every super tuesday state. Most people will be making up their minds by what they see on TV and in the newspapers combined with their impressions of Hillary and Obama to date. Which is to say they will have the same knowledge base as Floridians.

Obamaphiles have in large part tried to sell the message that in a general that Hillary's negatives mean people won't vote for her in the end. You can call it a beauty contest if you want but Florida's 'meaningless' primary is a pretty good indicator of Florida's very real vote in November. People who have been incessantly arguing that she is unelectable have some explaining to do. Florida's demographics are pretty similar to national ones and it is reasonable to suggest that she can win head to head and that her negatives are not reverberating in the way Obama needs them to.

Six days. 22 states. Obama supporters have a lot of work to do here. Some of you were suggesting she should drop out even before New Hampshire as one particularly cluefree person said 'the primary voters have spoken', this before any primary had come off at all. You can obsess about delegate count all you want, in November 48 out of 50 states will award their electoral college votes on a winner take all basis. In that context this result is not meaningless at all. If the General were held tomorrow Hillary would in all likelihood bag 27 EV from Florida.

by Bruce Webb 2008-01-30 10:58AM | 0 recs
Re: 22 States. Six days.

Bruce you have it exactly right. The whole no campaigning in FL storyline was nonsense because the fact is there's next to no campaigning ANYWHERE! There's the national media and some campaigning in a handful of major states but do you know how big CA is? To me FL was a very good test lab for what we're going to see in most places. I expect high turnout across the piece so that means a lot of indies voting in open primaries but also that women and hispanics are highly motivated and will show up too. If only all the dwellers here would get it into their heads that the intensity here and in IA is not typical. Edwards departure shuffles the pack. I believe looking at his demo it probably favors her but if it's 50/50 she wins.      

by ottovbvs 2008-01-30 11:22AM | 0 recs
27 electoral votes

And Obama wouldn't get those electoral votes?  The Democratic turnout was massive compared to the Republican one - that tells you more about which party is going to win Florida than which Democrat voters went for.

by schroeder 2008-01-30 02:56PM | 0 recs
Re: Man, Clinton supporters love cheerleading

Ottovbvs' comment exemplifies why I stopped supporting Clinton: her fucking supporters.  The people on here who post about Obama, Edwards, hell, even Kucinich - none of them have this snide, condescending attitude that Clinton supporters do.  Anyone who disagrees with you is an idiot, doesn't understand anything, and wants the Democrats to lose.  And every time, that serves to remind me that Clinton herself has in the past had a snide, condescending attitude towards people who disagreed with her - not something I'm looking for in a chief executive.  So you're not really selling your candidate here.

I've read maybe a hundred posts just in the past week declaring that "Obama can't possibly win," or "you're handing the election to McCain," and I have yet to see a shred of reasoned argument in any of them.  If I wanted to write "OBAMA RULEZ HILLARY SUX" I'd be carving it into my 7th grade desk with a pen-knife, not writing on a political blog.

And finally, "the adults"?!?  Are you kidding me?!?  Remember when Bush took over?  And Rove and all those idiots talked about how "the adults are in charge now," as they childishly spread obvious lies about the Clintons trashing the White House and crowed about stealing the election?  Remember what incredible assholes they sounded like?

That's how you're coming across.  Now, that kind of shit might fly on Free Republic, but when you post it on this site, you're doing a disservice to MyDD, Democrats everywhere, and your candidate of choice in particular.  You're making us sound like we're no better than the cretins who cheered as Bush tore down our Democratic principles.  So if Obama getting the nomination shuts up people like you, then frankly, that's reason enough to vote for the guy.

by schroeder 2008-01-30 04:27PM | 0 recs
So FL voters don't pay attention?

They have televisions, know about the results of South Carolina and about Teddy's endorsement, and many have seen the debates. They are not dumb uninformed people like many Obama supporters want to imply. They wanted to make their voice heard, and gave Clinton a resounding landslide victory. It may not have affected the delegate race, but it's a confidence booster for the Clinton campaign going into Super Tuesday.

by Christopher Lib 2008-01-30 09:19AM | 0 recs
Re: Hillary Wins Florida, and She Wins Big!

Hillary wins where again?

by Drummond 2008-01-30 10:42AM | 0 recs
Got polling?

Obama supporters have been dismissive of Clinton since Iowa. The basic line of argumentation, if you can call it that, is that Obama will win states that Clinton would lose. Well so far that is all blow and no show.

People are touting the Gallup number today and pointing out the gap was 20 points a week ago. Well the gap was only three points two weeks before that.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/103960/Gallup -Daily-Where-Election-Stands.aspx
Gallup is showing Hillary with a 12 point lead in California and 28 points in NY. So I guess a partial answer to your question would be CA and NY. Put those two and FL and MI together in November and this one is almost in the electoral bag.

by Bruce Webb 2008-01-30 11:10AM | 0 recs
Re: Got polling?

Wait tillwe see their up-dates before you make statements such as you do.

This is a dynamic process and not a static process.

by BDM 2008-01-30 11:48AM | 0 recs
Re: Got polling?

I'm in California, and I think you may be in for a surprise.

by Drummond 2008-01-30 02:23PM | 0 recs
Polling has been wrong in every state

All blow and no show?  So, who was it that shattered records in South Carolina, one of the most heavily Republican states in the Union?  More people in SC voted for Barack Obama than every Republican combined.  Clinton had fewer than McCain and narrowly edged out Huckabee.  That's what we're talking about when we say he'll win states Clinton won't.

And your argument about NY and CA?  Is Obama going to lose those states?  We could nominate Dennis Kucinich's hamster and New Yorkers would vote for it over Mitt Romney.  Plus, Clinton's lead in CA is dwindling, and NY is her "home" state, so of course she has a lead there.  That proves nothing.  Show me a red state she's going to flip that Obama isn't.  Just one state.

by schroeder 2008-01-30 04:53PM | 0 recs
Florida a reasonable precursor to other big states

We are six days to Super Tuesday. It is likely that most states will not get even a single event beyond perhaps a rally at an airport, nor does either candidate even with their large amounts of cash raised able to blanket all 22 states with ad buys.

Most people in both large and small states are going to cast their votes based on name recognition, what they see on TV and what they read online and in the newspapers. In other words they will be pulling the trigger based on pretty much the same information base that Floridians did. Moreover the demography of Florida is pretty close to the demography of the country as a whole.

Obamaphiles who don't believe that a 20 point victory in a large diverse state is important are deluding themselves. For one thing it says volumes about electability, certainly Florida is clearly in play for Hillary in November.

Obama supporters continually make the argument that people just won't vote for Hillary. Well the people of the fourth most populous state put paid to that notion. A strategy that relies in whole or in part on selling electability is vulnerable to results that show the opposite effect, and this one does. You can be certain that people would not be so dismissive if Obama had pulled out a narrow win, they would have taken that and rightly so as proof that when voters were given a head to head choice that Hillary was less likely to beat the Republican.

The issue right now is not delegate count but perceptions. Will people in large states show up in large numbers and vote for Hillary even knowing that there is an excellent chance those votes will not translate into seated delegates? Voters in the fourth and eighth largest states answered that in the affirmative. If you get similar margins in California and New York the whole electability argument breaks down entirely, if you put together Calif, NY, MI and FL together in November (where those votes will count) you are a long way towards a Democratic victory.

by Bruce Webb 2008-01-30 10:43AM | 0 recs
Re: Hillary Wins Florida, and She Wins Big!

Most media reports go on to say that no delegates were awarded in the Democratic primary because its timing violated party rules. However few, if any, emphasize that this was not a contested election and that Obama's message and persona were not presented to Florida voters. Of course, the former first lady would win big.

And she'll push to have these delegates counted.

I hope that pundits and editorial writers will criticize the presumptuous, cynical performance by Senator Clinton in holding a "triumphant" victory rally in Florida on election night.

homer   www.altara.blogspot.com

by Homer 2008-01-30 11:52AM | 0 recs

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