• on a comment on The Importance of the Question over 4 years ago

    I think a likely voter screen far from an election makes sense.  If you want to show trends over time, why would you suddenly switch your sample space?

  • on a comment on The Importance of the Question over 4 years ago

    As noted in the link you mentioned, Rasmussen uses a likely voter screen.

    In terms of results, I believe Rasmussen tends to be more accurate than other groups.  Nate Silver, for example, considered them one of the better pollsters during the 2008 primaries.

  • comment on a post Does Starting this Early Give Romney an Edge? over 5 years ago

    The idea that running early is a good thing can be attributed to the successful campaign of Jimmy Carter.  Bill Clinton reinforced that notion, and Howard Dean nearly did so.

    For 2012, I think that the lack of any clear front-runners helps someone who starts out early, but I think that Romney is too much of a known quantity to get much of an advantage from that.  The type of politician who would benefit most from starting an early presidential run is probably someone who is relatively young and relatively unknown to the point that people say that person should wait until 2016 or later.

  • comment on a post Iran: A nation of bloggers over 5 years ago

    Children of Jihad by Jared Cohen includes discussion of his travels in Iran and how youths there use technology for social purposes.

    Also, as a Filipino-American, I would like to know which blog, if revealing it doesn't interfere with your project.

  • comment on a post Universal Voter Registration on a national scale over 5 years ago

    I'd rather just tie voter registration into a national ID card.  Make it government-funded.  Make sure that everyone gets a card.  Have a grandfather clause where everyone 60 or older when the card is implemented doesn't have to get one and can register to vote by the old rules.  Otherwise, there is a national voter roll which includes the name of every citizen.

    This proposal will get bipartisan support from the populist nativists in the Republican Party.

  • comment on a post Vetting the veeps--Part III--Jim Webb over 6 years ago

    I think that Webb's appeal is mainly to those who believe that the primary job of the vice-presidential nominee is to serve as an attack dog.

  • If it passes by a slim majority with declared Clinton backers switching their votes from a previous "no" vote (if they voted for stripping Michigan and Florida previously), then people being for punishing the two states before being against it might be the big media story that comes out of the vote.

    You could, for example, have 13 public Clinton endorsers, Katz and Brewer voting for their states, and one other voting as a majority.  Accurate or not, the comparisons will be to things like the 2000 Supreme Court decision on the presidential election and Henry Clay's "corrupt bargain."

  • comment on a post Vote Counting the DNC Rules & Bylaws Committee over 6 years ago

    How many of them were on the Rules and Bylaws Committee when it voted to strip Michigan and Florida of delegates?  Has the membership changed at all?  (The only dissenting vote last time around was Allan Katz of Florida, who is in the Obama column.) I tend to think that Alexis Herman and James Roosevelt Jr. are not inclined to reverse their votes, especially Roosevelt, who called himself a "rules geek" and signaled that his emphasis is on following the letter of the law.  I tend to think that Howard Dean made them co-chairs of the Credentials Committee at the national convention because they were inclined toward deciding things for legalistic rather than political reasons.  

  • As I pointed out, one link in the diarist's chain, that the DNC is convinced by future events to stack the credentials committee in Hillary Clinton's favor, is not reasonable because those members of the committee have already been chosen.


  • 3)  DNC simply stacks the 25 members of the rules board that Dean selects with Pro Hillary votes.  Thats where it will happen.  Dean will crown Hillary for the good of the party.

    Howard Dean has already made his appointments.  As a clue for how they will vote, two of the three co-chairs that Dean named to head the committee are/were the co-chairs of the Rules and Bylaws Committee that voted to increase the delegate penalty to Michigan and Florida.

  • comment on a post How To Attack John McCain: A Search Study over 6 years ago

    Attack his strength.  Hit him on his military record.  There's a reason why his nickname is "Reverse Ace".

  • That's not entirely true.  Since it will be close, Howard Dean appointed a bloc of delegates who will probably decide anything where Obama and Clinton delegates are divided by candidate.  Considering that two of the three co-chairs of the credentials committee were the co-chairs of the rules and bylaws committee that chose to enact the fullest penalty on  Michigan and Florida and the rest of Dean's appointments may be similarly-minded, it looks like the committee is tilted against seating Florida and Michigan.

  • comment on a post Buzzing against McCain over 6 years ago

    Your ideas are too direct.  You need to ask leading questions.  Insinuate, insinuate, insinuate!

    Get bloggers to write posts answering these questions:

    -Is George W. Bush actually smarter than John McCain? (probably)
    -Did John McCain do anything of distinction in the military besides become a POW? (not that I know of)
    -Is John McCain too old to be president? (change vs. tired old politics)

    If you're lucky, the mainstream media will pick up on these questions and post polls on their websites.

  • comment on a post Talk looking forward over 6 years ago

    Michigan/Florida delegations being seated or not only matters if those delegates actually swing the nomination, in which case we will get an interesting procedural battle involving court cases.

    If you're the sort who wants to blow up the current primary system and schedule, then you might want to root for a gigantic mess to occur.

  • on a comment on Out of Iowa over 6 years ago

    I think that conservative Democrats tend to be economic populists.  Edwards might win more votes if he expanded his populist appeal to areas other than an anti-corporate message.

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