it's the Economy, Stupid
by anna shane, Thu May 15, 2008 at 02:44:27 PM EDT
I don't speak for anyone but myself, but this particular Hillary supporter is tired of the 'myth of inevitability' that Barack's supporters keep trying to sell. She wasn't, early on, although some claimed she thought she was, and she certainly appeared polished and confident, and he isn't either. The entire reason for super delegates is to overturn the delegate lead when that candidate can't get elected. It's not just the economy, although that's why she's winning those so-called Reagan Democrats he claimed early on were for him. It's the electoral map, updated right here, that shows that even a dorky guy like John McCain can beat Barack Obama in the fall. The pugs have a built in advantage, recall that we're a Republic, not a Democracy. Recall now voter ID's are the law of the land. Recall they cheat. Recall they will do and say anything to win, so that we can lose even more rights that will expand their built-in advantage for the coming elections.
But, I don't just think she can win the nom and the GE, I think she will, and here's why.
Hillary is ahead in the popular vote. Barack's supporters cite the rules that will keep some of those votes from counting, but Hillary agreed to a revote in both Michigan and Florida and agreed to pay for them too. That will look to the super's like he's afraid to face her, because he wants to hold onto his lead, any way he can. The popular vote lead is at least as strong as the delegate lead to argue before the super's, and after bush vs. gore arguably rather stronger.
Barack is losing his momentum, while she's making inroads with new voters. Both can claim credit for bringing new voters in, but she's getting more party members back and voting and he's getting more independents, and cross over pugs who may see him as easier to beat in the Fall. McCain also wants Barack's independent voters, and many who voted for him in primaries polled that they had a hard time choosing between the two. Indies come with no guarantee they'll vote for him in the fall. They may, but they also may not.
Barack has annoyed women with his campaign style. Some are so angry they are actually thinking of boycotting the election, or even demonstrating at the convention. This is entirely the fault of the party leadership under Howard and Nancy. No one has spoken out against real or perceived misogyny, not even softly. It's even pissed off pug women, only those women who think Hillary uniquely deserves to be trashed, dismissed and mocked think this is okay. This completely undermines Barack's claim that she has insider advantage.
Hillary has more plans that are clearly stated, she can speak on every issue. She's put in the hard work of preparing herself to take over the job of president and that counts with people who admire hard work over innate talent. He's talented, more than she, but she's far more prepared. She's done all the homework and she's turned it in.
Hillary has a huge staff-in-waiting, professionals and experts, retired and those who've taken time off at their own expense to get started so that she'll be ready on day one. It's not just a campaign slogan, it's what she's been doing. She has thousands of years of collective experience behind her candidacy, and they would not be sacrificing for her election if they thought they wouldn't be appreciated and allowed to do what they do best.
Hillary knows history, she knows what languages are spoken in different nations, she knows economic development problems in different nations. She answers questions directly and without hesitation. She's so on top of her message that she can joke around and make fun of herself. She's so confident she makes her supporters relax, we know if she's our president there will be a prepared mature woman in command. She gets briefed on foreign affairs, she doesn't slip on her own knowledge, she stays current. She doesn't claim she doesn't need foreign policy advisors because that's her strong suit. She doesn't value her own judgement over experts and professionals. She'll hire the best team she can get and she'll let them work as hard as they like. She's made mistakes, she's not perfect, but she admits it, she's not pretending to be perfect or flawless. She's promising she'll do her best and she's asking us to hold her accountable. This is a very strong argument for her candidacy.
Everyone knows bush has made a hash in Washington and that there will be a lot of cleaning up to do. Those pugs who don't like McCain a lot won't mind having her as our president. they want universal health care too, it's good for business, and they want someone competent in charge. Many pug women secretly support her because of her work ethic and how much cleaning must be done. Think FEMA, think our broken hack filled military, think every single agency that Bush has filled with hacks. Being president isn't necessarily a fun job, it's a tedious and detailed job that isn't likely to fascinate any but the most wonky, and if Hilary's not a wonk, I don't know Hillary. McCain simply isn't up to it. Barack is already tired, and it's still primary season.
Hilary is polite, she shows respect to everyone. when she was a junior senator she wasn't too proud to fetch coffee for everyone, and she didn't need to have the last word. She never took credit for someone else's work. That's why she gets along personally with pugs, like McCain; she disagrees with him on nearly everything, but they have a friendship. For some reason Barack has made a personal enemy of John, which simply show poor planning. One does not have to be disagreeable just to disagree. One can have empathy for others even when they're nothing like you. It's possible, but it requires humility. Condescending doesn't cut it.
And last but not least, Hillary cheers us up. She says she likes campaigning, she always has a ready smile and a cheerful word, she likes working hard, she finds the challenge of the office exciting and she'll have fun working around the clock. It's her thang.
I think she's our likely nominee, if not our inevitable one. She's running stronger and stronger, and I think that will be what the remaining super's base their decision on. We want to win the GE. We want it bad.