Mason-Dixon: Obama Leads Clinton in Colorado

http://tpmelectioncentral.com/2008/01/ma sondixon_romney_leads_big_in_colorado_ob ama_edging_hillary.php

Obama 34%
Clinton 32%
Edwards 17%

Looks like Obama has a real chance of taking the Colorado caucuses. Polling for Colorado has been scarce, but previous polls from ARG way back in September showed a 10-16 point HRC lead, so it seems believable that Barack is making a run at it. This poll was conducted between the 21rst and the 23rd, so it doesn't include any "bounce" Obama might get out of his South Carolina win.

Whites and latinos far outnumber blacks in the state (90/19/4%), proving if Iowa and NH hadn't already that Obama can do well outside of the Southern states with large AA populations.

Tags: 2008 election, Barack Obama, Colorado, Hillary Clinton (all tags)

Comments

12 Comments

Re: Mason-Dixon: Obama Leads Clinton in Colorado

Hillary has never polled particularly strongly in Colorado.  I would imagine Obama has a good shot there and in a few other smallish caucus states.  Hillary will clean up the large primary states.

by markjay 2008-01-27 06:01PM | 0 recs
Re: Mason-Dixon: Obama Leads Clinton in Colorado
Which states are you talking about?
FL? Probably.
CA, NY, and MA ? I think not. Try not to forget that most of these primary states are not 'Winner take all"
by Bruticus 2008-01-28 06:05AM | 0 recs
Link to the

Denver Post Article is here:http://www.denverpost.com/breakingnews/c i_8089114

Pretty high Margin of Error in this poll.  

It's good news for Obama - I would have loved to see the cross-tabs - in particular the how the Hispanic vote is breatking.

by fladem 2008-01-27 06:11PM | 0 recs
Re: Link to the

I read some where and tend to agree since I grew up in Denver that there isn't much black/brown animosity or friction in Colorado.  I think the Hispanic vote that Hillary is counting on to vote against Obama will be found closer to the coasts--like CA and FL. (NV was an exception due to the importance and prominence of the caucus. Altho NV highlighted the Hispanic vote, the machine dems were driving the turnout and not race.)

by aiko 2008-01-28 04:44AM | 0 recs
Re: Mason-Dixon: Obama Leads Clinton in Colorado

seriously, does anyone trust ARG anymore?  either clintonpawns, or much more likely, they just suck at what they do.

by Doug Tuttle 2008-01-27 06:50PM | 0 recs
Re: Mason-Dixon: Obama Leads Clinton in Colorado

Him have the caucus states. By the time the state convention where they choose national delegates, Clinton will be the nominee (or presumptive) and get those delegates too without even winning the state.

by RJEvans 2008-01-27 07:33PM | 0 recs
Re: Mason-Dixon: Obama Leads Clinton in Colorado

And this was taken before South Carolina.

by Drummond 2008-01-27 08:51PM | 0 recs
Re: Mason-Dixon: Obama Leads Clinton in Colorado

ARG is awful- they are the ones who had Clinton way up in Iowa before the vote- you might as well snatch the numbers blindfolded out of a hat.

by reasonwarrior 2008-01-28 02:46AM | 0 recs
Re: Mason-Dixon: Obama Leads Clinton in Colorado

CO is a caucus state, it's one of the ones I expect Obama to win in.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-01-28 03:59AM | 0 recs
Re: Mason-Dixon: Obama Leads Clinton in Colorado

Well, I don't expect Obama to win it. I was born and rasied in Colorado. I recently went back to Denver to attend a funeral, and her support was strong there. I only moved to Houston 3 years ago. Colorado has a huge Hispanic population. Colorado Spings is home to a huge AFB. Hill's supports is strong on the Base, Obama is not. Hillary is strong in all the major counties, Denver, Arapahoe, Douglas. Obama will do well in Boulder and Greeley counties, as they are the home to the University of Colorado at Boulder and Colorado State University as well as so-called elites. He will also do well is Weld county. They will fight over the Independent vote. Don't get me wrong it will be close, but I expect Hill to pull a narrow win.

by lonnette33 2008-01-28 04:34AM | 0 recs
Re: Mason-Dixon: Obama Leads Clinton in Colorado

I went to East High...

by aiko 2008-01-28 04:39AM | 0 recs
Re: Mason-Dixon: Obama Leads Clinton in Colorado

I went to Thomas Jefferson High School.

by lonnette33 2008-01-28 04:47AM | 0 recs

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