The polls are all over the place. I'm throwing out the 2 polls in back to back days showing Sweeeney up 14 and Gillibrand up 13. Those are just plain nuts. Constituent Dynamics is trying a new technique and I don't think it is reliable at all. The Siena poll is surprising to me and I don't know for sure what they are doing wrong (other than over sampling Republicans) but a closer look at their demographic breakdowns makes it clear to me that the poll is way off base. It shows Gillibrand barely winning amongst Democrats and even amongst women. There is no way in hell either of those numbers is anywhere near accurate. No way in hell.
Throw out those 2 polls and you are left with each parties and candidates internal polls. Usually not the most reliable but they actually paint a clearer and more reasonable picture.
Those polls show Gillibrand down -12, -8, -6, -1, and the latest one up +2.
Those sorts of numbers match closer to what we are seeing anecdotally going door to door amongst Republican and independents.
This race is essentially tied. It'll all come down to turn-out and how many Republicans and independents vote Democratic this year.
... for those officials sitting on a bank roll to contribute serious funds to their state parties.
For instance, Senator Clinton has done a great job campaigning with, fund raising for, and contributing to, congressional candidates in New York.
She has also given a $1 million to the DSCC. And given about $150k to the state party as well as directing her own field organization to work with the state party and Spitzer's organization to help state wide.
This is all good, good stuff. Kudo's to Sen. Clinton.
But she still has what... $16 million or something like that?
What about another $1 million to the state party for it's field organization?
9 Republican held seats. 7 of which are highly competitive Republican held seats. The other 2 could be competitive.
An additional $1 million dollars would be a serious boost in the ground game for each of the 9 challengers, would assist Sen. Clinton, AG Spitzer, the other 2 statewide candidates, AND would help the state legislature candidates across the state as well.
She'd still be sitting on $15 million and no one would be able to say she hadn't done her part. That extra million would go a long way to making Democrats won at least a few of those Congressional Districts and thereby put a big dent into the number required for Democrats to take control of the House.
Good for you Chris. Maffei is a great candidate that didn't get the kind of notice he deserved early on... but with the tsunami getting ready to wash away the republican in the northeast his is a race that is seriously winnable. An influx of cash and a serious crew of volunteers and that Democratic leaning district (NY-25) can be made ours for the forseeable future.
NY-23 and NY-13 are the only safe Republican seats this year.
NY-26 appears to have risen to the top of likely Democratic take-overs.
NY-24 had just gained it's rightful place as the top pick-up opportunity before Reynolds self-destructed and NY-26 vaulted past it.
After those top 2 come several that are all too close to call, NY-29, NY-25, NY-20, NY-19, NY-3.
The circumstances in New York and nationally are as good as we could possibly hope for. Money and, particularly important in these last 3 weeks, volunteers knocking on independents and republicans doors are the key to sweeping the state.
If you live in New York, know people that do, or are in a safe democratic district and have some time on your hands, please pick one of these districts and help us wipe out republicanism in New York.
And a special shout-out to the DCCC, Hillary Clinton, Eliot Spitzer, and the New York State Democratic Party for putting serious resources (we could use more though - Chuck? Chuck? Hillary? Rahm?) into building a field team unlike any we've seen before.
As a friend of Mike's let me just say that I first met him at Dean meetups when he was probably still just a "closet caller." LOL
Mike is a great guy. He was active in our Dean group before the calling started to get notice.
But not all his activities take time away from his daughter. I remember Sep. '05 on the steps behind the state capital in Albany, NY when we were hosting the Bring Them Home Now Bus Tour and Mike showed up with his then 2 (?) month old sleeping soundly (and beautifuly) against his chest in one of those front knapsack carriers they have these days.
Sorry. No can do. I'm sure your Mom is wonderful but if she truly is wonderful then she'll switch to being a democrat. The modern day Republican party needs to be crushed. There are plenty of decent, fine Republicans out there. Some are even elected officials but there is absolutely no excuse for the behavior of the George Bush lead Republican party and no excuse for supporting anyone for anything that would lead to a strnegthening of support for the modern day Republican Party.
No can do.
They need to be crushed. Not defeated. Crushed. Only then can a decent, respectable Republican party arise from the ashes.
If you and your Mom want to do some good then have her run for state chair of the Republican Party and kick out all the right wingers.
Then she can go to work on the other 49 states.
There is no excuse (other then she's your Mom - I'll buy that one) for supporting a Republican in today's political environment.
I don't know the others well enough to know for sure. What I do know is that there are 9 Republican held seats in NY and there isn't one of them that is a lock for a Republican if the right candidate has the right amount of money and the right number of people on the ground working their tails off to make it happen.
I'm sure this is true of most states and districts to one degree or another.
If you aren't involved where you are then why not?