Results Thread

This is my version of Kos' thread, used for spillover. Put in the results you find interesting from tonight's primaries.

A recap so far:

Alabama - The Republicans look set to easily renominate Gov. Bob Riley over wingnut Roy Moore by at least a 2-1 margin. Democrats are more split, but Lt. Gov. Lucy Baxley has been leading indicted former Gov. Don Siegelman all night.

Mississippi - Nothing really interesting, although Rep. Bennie Thompson is cruising over primary challenger Chuck Espy, who is more conservative.

New Jersey - Kean and Menendez won their Senate primaries (I know, big surprise), and Albio Sires won the primary for Menendez's old district.

Of course, one of the big stories of the night, Montana, has just started counting...results to follow.

Well, start the talking.

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NJ Filings

Today was the New Jersey filing deadline. It appears that Democrats ran candidates in all 13 congressional districts (along with of course Menendez in the Senate race).

Republicans seem to have left two Democratic Congressmen unopposed, however - Rob Andrews of Haddon Heights and Don Payne of Newark. Interestingly, a Republican filed at the last minute in the open 13th District against Democrats Albio Sires and Joseph Vas. That Republican is one John Guarini. This is a safe Democratic seat (Sires is considered a shoo-in for both the nomination and the general), but this is an interesting development as the man who represented this district before Bob Menendez was Democrat Frank Guarini. They must be related, right? Jerseyans?

So anyway, we have a full slate in Joyzee. On to Virginia on Friday.

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Alabama Filings UPDATE: 5 or 3 unopposed?

Well, you know how we were trying to challenge as many Republican Congressmembers as possible? You know how to this date we have only for sure left 5 unopposed? (Mike Conaway, Chip Pickering, Bill Shuster, Charlie Dent, and Gary Miller)

Well, today is the filing deadline in Alabama and the list of filings is probably almost final. The Secretary of State shows every incumbent in the 7-member House delegation going unopposed. That's 5 Republicans and 2 Democrats. If this holds, we have left 10 Republicans unopposed already, and it's only April. Of course, they have left 19 Democrats unopposed, but weren't we supposed to be doing a lot better than this?

I hope we see a few more filings in Alabama later today. I'm not sure what time the deadline is. If it was noon, we're screwed. If it's tonight, we may see a couple last-minute filers. And Tennessee, whose filing deadline was yesterday, hasn't come through yet, so these things take time.

Anyway, I really hope a couple Dems file, at least against Mike Rogers, who under the right circumstances would have been vulnerable. If this holds, then Alabama is the first state this year to have every single incumbent get a free pass. Amazing.

Update [2006-4-7 19:54:14 by Ament Stone of California]: There are conflicting reports. According to CQ Politics, only Republicans Jo Bonner and Terry Everett will receive challengers. However, according to the Alabama Democratic Party, last-minute challengers emerged against Republicans Mike Rogers and Bob Aderholt, leaving Spencer Bachus as the only GOP incumbent to get a free pass in the state. Both Democrats, Bud Cramer of Huntsville and Artur Davis of Birmingham, appear to have gone unopposed. This is all very confusing, I hope it gets sorted out soon.

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Arkansas and South Dakota filing deadlines!

Both Arkansas and South Dakota have their filing deadlines today. Arkansas' passed at noon, and both parties have a full congressional slate:

District 1 - Rep. Marion Berry, D-Gillett, will face Mickey Stumbaugh (R)

District 2 - Rep. Vic Snyder, D-Little Rock, will face either Andy Mayberry (R) or Tom Formicola (R)

District 3 - Rep. John Boozman, R-Rogers, will face Woodrow Anderson (D)

District 4 - Rep. Mike Ross, D-Prescott, will face Joe Ross (R), no relation I assume

So all 4 Arkansas Congressmen will get challengers from the other party, though all 4 are considered safe.

Now on to South Dakota. I'm not sure what time of day the South Dakota deadline is, but it is today. So far Rep. Stephanie Herseth (D) is only getting a Libertarian challenger. Some nobody Republican will probably file at the last minute; otherwise, they will be letting a two-year incumbent in a very very red state go unchallenged! I can't see that happening.

Anyway, I'll keep my eye on South Dakota (though a certain area of my body will definitely steer clear! - ha ha ha bad joke), because it would really be quite a statement if the Republicans can't find somebody to challenge Stephanie Herseth in this deep red state.

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CA Filings FINALLY Official

Bumped from the diaries -- Jonathan... Considering the questions as to whether GOP Rep. Gary Miller helped one of his business partners through official House actions, it's disappointing to see that the Dems did not field a challenger in his district. That said, it looks like the GOP had a much tougher go in California than the Dems this year.

Amazingly, after nearly a month the California Secretary of State has FINALLY compiled the official list of certified candidates. Surprisingly, it seems that more Congresspeople are set to go unopposed. It looked like it was just Gary Miller (R-Diamond Bar), but now we have more:

CA-07: George Miller (D-Martinez) faces a Libertarian
CA-20: Jim Costa (D-Fresno) is unopposed, even though he is a freshman in a competitive district!
CA-31: Xavier Becerra (D-Los Angeles) faces another Democrat
CA-32: Hilda Solis (D-El Monte) faces a Libertarian
CA-33: Diane Watson (D-Los Angeles) faces another Democrat
CA-35: Maxine Waters (D-Los Angeles) faces another Democrat, a Libertarian, and an American Independent
CA-37: Juanita Millender-McDonald (D-Carson) faces another Democrat and a Libertarian
CA-42: As previously noted, Gary Miller (R-Diamond Bar) is unopposed

I am really shocked. I didn't think so many Democrats would get a free pass this year. True, all of them except Costa are in totally safe seats, but still...and the SoS claims this is the final, official list, so I have to go with it.

I'm amazed. I was angry at the California Democrats for failing to find someone against Gary Miller, but now that we have the full list, the Republicans actually did much much worse. Republicans had previously filed against every Democrat listed here, but I guess their paperwork wasn't kosher, because this is the official list. Not only did Republicans give liberal firebrands George Miller and Maxine Waters a free pass, they have basically conceded CA-20 for the foreseeable future, amazing since this is a seat they targeted heavily just two years ago.

Well, it looks like the Republicans won't be gaining any congressional seats in California this year.

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House open seat rundown

Lots of good information here--Chris

I'm saving my all-out House rundown until after the FEC fundraising numbers come in next month. Instead, enjoy this brief rundown of each open-seat race (yeah, there are a lot of them).

Arizona 8 - Jim Kolbe (R) retiring after 11 terms

Kolbe, the only openly gay Republican in Congress and one of the few pro-choice Republicans left, is heading off into the desert sunset. A top-tier contest is emerging for his seat, with former State Senator Gabrielle Giffords of Tucson the Democratic primary favorite and the GOP contest somewhat chaotic between former State Representative Randy Graf of Green Valley, a far rightie, and two more mainstream candidates. Neither primary is set in stone, as even Giffords is getting some competition from former local news anchor Patty Weiss and "grassroots underdog" Jeff Latas. Whomever emerges from the September 12 primaries, this will be a close race, as John Kerry got 47% here.

The other races below the fold...

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50 State Strategy Outlook

Well, now that the California Secretary of State has finally gotten his act together (geez Louise, that took forever!), we now know who is going unopposed in California.

At the last minute, Republicans found a challenger for Rep. Jim Costa (D-Fresno), a fellow Hispanic, some nobody named Jim Lopez, who doesn't even seem to have a website. The Secretary of State also finally acknowledged the presence of a Democratic challenger to Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Corona), Louis Vandenburg, or something like that.

Only one California Congressman went unopposed, Rep. Gary Miller (R-Diamond Bar), who was first elected in 1998 and has never had a tough battle.

Given how incumbent-friendly the political scene is in California, it's quite a feat that only one incumbent is going unopposed!

Read the whole list, so far, of unchallenged incumbents, of whom there are 15 in the House and 1 in the Senate. JUMP BELOW THE FOLD, if you dare!

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CA Filings: Huh?

Well, the filing deadline has passed in California, and the Secretary of State has got to be smoking something, because according to his site three of the four San Diego-area Congresspeople have not filed for reelection. He lists Bob Filner (D-San Diego) as having filed; but omits Darrell Issa (R-Vista), Duncan Hunter (R-Alpine), and Susan Davis (D-San Diego). In fact, he lists no contenders in Hunter's 52nd or Davis' 53rd.

According to his list Democrats also failed to field challengers in CA-42 (held by Gary Miller, R-Diamond Bar) and CA-44 (held by Ken Calvert, R-Corona). And Republicans failed to field challengers to Barbara Lee (D-Oakland), Pete Stark (D-Fremont), Sam Farr (D-Carmel), Jim Costa (D-Fresno), Henry Waxman (D-Los Angeles), Xavier Becerra (D-Los Angeles), Hilda Solis (D-El Monte), Diane Watson (D-Los Angeles), Maxine Waters (D-Los Angeles), Juanita Millender-McDonald (D-Carson), and Grace Napolitano (D-Norwalk). Why would Republicans leave 1/3 of the California Dems unopposed? That just doesn't make sense.

This coupled with the total lack of info re: San Diego makes me think Bruce McPherson's list isn't the final list and that he may be behind in his paperwork. Geez, California needs a new Secretary of State very badly. And about that:

Your thoughts on the filings? Is he just behind, or did three incumbents really forget to file for reelection? And did Republicans really leave 11 Democrats unopposed?

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Calif. filing deadline tomorrow

California's filing deadline is tomorrow! I'll run down the races that are still in question, though. Read below the fold...

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TX Overview

A quick update of what happened last night in the House races:

- Cuellar has won outright in TX-28, with 53% of the vote. I knew this would happen as soon as I realized that Webb County hadn't reported yet. Texas allows open primaries, so clearly Republicans desperately wanted to aid him. So fine. It's over now. Remember that even the most conservative Democrat is better than the most liberal Republican because most votes in the House are partisan. Cuellar is still loyal 67% of the time. Moving on...

- Inexplicably, 62% of the Republicans in TX-22 wanted DeLay as their candidate! An indicted member of Congress who has come to symbolize Washington corruption in most voters' minds!!! That's fine with me. No other Republican has as much baggage and unpopularity in this district. Go Nick Lampson!

- Roger Owen and Jim Henley won the Dem nominations for TX-01 and TX-07, respectively. Nothing to report here, they will both lose in November.

- The Democratic primary in TX-10 is going to a runoff between Ted Ankrum, who got 37%, and Paul Foreman, who got 36%. The Texas runoffs are on April 11.

- The Republicans selected Iraq war veteran Van Taylor as their nominee in TX-17 against Chet Edwards, by 54-46. Taylor is the only Republican Iraq vet running for Congress this year.

- Republican incumbents Sam Johnson and Ron Paul easily beat back primary opponents in TX-03 and TX-14.

- The Republicans will have a runoff between Wilson Aurbach and Amir Omar to take on, and lose to, incumbent Democrat Eddie Bernice Johnson.

- Republicans stupidly picked a white guy, Paul Haring, to take on incumbent Democrat Ruben Hinojosa in the 75% Hispanic TX-15! I thought the Republicans were trying to win Hispanics over, especially in Texas! Why would they pick a white guy (with white hair) in the most Hispanic seat in the state?

- Strangest of all, Silvestre Reyes beat back a primary challenge from Jorge Artalejo with fully 100% of the vote. No, I kid you not. Artalejo received a grand total of 0 votes in last night's TX-16 Democratic primary. WTF!!!!!!

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