Don't count your ballots before they're "counted".
And secondly, if the GOP makes a concerted effort to remind their followers to vote for Foley (so the votes can be transferred to, say, State Sen. Jeff Atwater), we may well see this one stay Republican.
If the Republicans know to "vote for Foley" (but not really), they'll do it. Mass confusion is the only way we win this seat.
No one knows. We'll find out during the next few election cycles, I guess.
On anecdotal evidence alone (yeah, I know, that doesn't mean much), I have noticed a lot of my friends in L.A. leaving the state (for the usual reasons -- money, basically). Most of my friends are Democrats, of course, so it shows that there are plenty of Democrats leaving California too.
Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado will all go blue in 2008 if we have a decent presidential candidate. In 2006, I expect Nevada to keep a Dem Assembly, New Mexico to keep Dem Gov and Leg, and Colorado to elect a Dem Governor and keep the Dem Leg.
This generation gap theory is quite too. Silent and Boomer forecasters seem to think the Democrats have it locked up. Gen-X and Millennial forecasters are cautious and conservative with their projections. Not because they are more Republican, certainly not in the case of Millennials, but because they have grown up with more GOP than Dem victories. As a Millennial, I can attest that I am much more of a cautious forecaster because of my experiences than my Boomer parents.