any Republican will lead any Democrat in Virginia, it will be a long hard slog to November, and very uphill. Tim Kaine trailed Kilgore, a Republican candidate so weak you had to hear him to believe it, by 10 points all the way until Katrina. And even after Katrina it was very hard for Kaine to pull ahead. I will always think that the Scooter Libby indictment elected Kaine (that and Kilgore's unbelievably underwhelming performance in the debates, you really had to hear Kilgore to understand how bad he was).
No one should be surprised or downhearted by McDonnell's lead this early in the year.