• comment on a post Early turnout reports from the networks over 9 years ago
    I would expect the Republican numbers to be a bit higher in the evening.  So far, things look good, but we still don't have much to go on.
  • comment on a post Early VNS exit polling over 9 years ago
    Exit polls aren't worth much.  Exit polls in the early afternoon are even more worthless.  Unless you think Kerry is going to win PA by 20 or Bush is going to win AZ by 10, there's not much to read into this.

    To me, the best news is what appears to be a huge turnout everywhere.  This has got to help us.  They're fired up, but not nearly as much as we are.

  • comment on a post My Final Presidential Prediction over 9 years ago
    I'm really concerned with how heavily you have relied on the incumbent rule because I don't think you can compare this election to 1976 or 1980.  I still think two thirds for Kerry is the best estimate. However, I think your overall prediction is spot on because I think any voters that vote this year that didn't vote in 2000 are going to break 75% to Kerry.

    Nothing left to do except hope we execute.

    Once again, I hope that whichever side loses concedes and goes home.  I hope that it's the Republicans who will be doing the conceding tomorrow.

  • comment on a post Presidential prediction thread over 9 years ago
    I'm all for 8 years of Kerry, but I don't think I can take 8 years of Edwards, who has always annoyed the hell out of me.  Edwards doesn't have the chops to be president, but he makes a nice VP.
  • comment on a post A Big Win in Ohio over 9 years ago
    To the extent that there are fraudulent votes coming in, both Dems and Reps should want them stopped.  But to insist on allowing a challenger at the polling station to harass voters is ridiculous.  Hope the Reps get their asses handed to them for this.
  • comment on a post Swing State Poll Averages over 9 years ago
    My guess is that they break two thirds/one thirds this year.  
  • comment on a post Presidential prediction thread over 9 years ago
    Kerry 272
    Bush 266

    Bush wins Florida, NM, Iowa

    Kerry wins PA, WIS, OH, NH, HI

    Neither candidate gets 50% of the vote, although Kerry comes really close.

    I predict no show-stopping litigation, although whichever party loses will initiate a few sour grapes lawsuits alleging voter fraud (if Reps lose) or voter suppression (if we lose).  Nonetheless, there will be a winner by very early Wednesday morning.

  • comment on a post Bush's Last Stop is Dallas, Why? over 9 years ago
    I wouldn't read a ton into Bush's final stop being in Dallas.  I'm guessing he was planning on spending the election in Crawford anyway.

    Nonetheless, I would love to see Frost win in Dallas, and give that little freak Tom Delay a bloody nose.

  • comment on a post Surge of voter rolls in New Mexico over 9 years ago
    I don't feel good about NM right now.  Say what you want, but if I had to bet money, I'd bet on NM going for Bush.  The polls have been consistently kind to him there for months.  On the other hand, I think we have a really good shot at Ohio, and a pretty good shot at Florida.
  • comment on a post Arkansas back in play over 9 years ago
    I can guarantee you we won't come close in Tennessee, and I seriously seriously doubt we win Arkansas either.  But 250K is a small price to pay for spooking Republicans and maybe conning them into wasting resources on the South.
  • comment on a post Oh My God over 9 years ago
    The war was a mistake, and deaths of women and children are horrible.  But we should share the blame with the Baathist thugs and non-Iraq terrorists that have torn the country up.

    I think Kerry can do a better job of finishing the job in Iraq than Bush, but we should remember that most Iraqis want peace.  If Amercian troops were in Iraq but the Baathists and terrorists were trying to tear the country up, Iraqi civilians wouldn't be dying.

    Bush screwed up the war, and should lose his job.  But that doesn't mean I want us to lose in Iraq or that I think that certain Iraqis don't hold a lot of the responsibility for what has happened.

  • comment on a post Closing strategies for the candidate stops over 9 years ago
    To be fair, you make it sound like the evil Republicans are planning cynical litigation if they lose, while we angelic Democrats plan no such thing.

    If the election is at all close, it will be litigated whether it should be or not.  They need to take their responsbility, but so should we.  

  • I can't imagine Bush winning NJ.  I don't think it will really even be that close in the end.
  • comment on a post Kerry gains in Reuters/Zogby national tracking over 9 years ago
    I'm feeling really good about things right now.  Seems like Kerry has made a 3-4 point move in the last week or so.  If that's true, then we're going to win on Nov. 2 and it's not going to be that close.
  • comment on a post Survey USA and Zogby Polls over 9 years ago
    I've been very encouraged by what I've seen today.  We are looking strong in all the states we need to.  If we win Ohio, Bush could possibly still win, but it would be really really hard.  I'm really thinking now that Kerry could win this by 5 or 6 points.  Prior experience has shown me that challengers and, lately, Democrats underperform a bit in polls.  With the mega-high turnout, I can really imagine this being, not a blow out, but a comfortable win.

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