Exit polls aren't worth much. Exit polls in the early afternoon are even more worthless. Unless you think Kerry is going to win PA by 20 or Bush is going to win AZ by 10, there's not much to read into this.
To me, the best news is what appears to be a huge turnout everywhere. This has got to help us. They're fired up, but not nearly as much as we are.
I'm really concerned with how heavily you have relied on the incumbent rule because I don't think you can compare this election to 1976 or 1980. I still think two thirds for Kerry is the best estimate. However, I think your overall prediction is spot on because I think any voters that vote this year that didn't vote in 2000 are going to break 75% to Kerry.
Nothing left to do except hope we execute.
Once again, I hope that whichever side loses concedes and goes home. I hope that it's the Republicans who will be doing the conceding tomorrow.
To the extent that there are fraudulent votes coming in, both Dems and Reps should want them stopped. But to insist on allowing a challenger at the polling station to harass voters is ridiculous. Hope the Reps get their asses handed to them for this.
Neither candidate gets 50% of the vote, although Kerry comes really close.
I predict no show-stopping litigation, although whichever party loses will initiate a few sour grapes lawsuits alleging voter fraud (if Reps lose) or voter suppression (if we lose). Nonetheless, there will be a winner by very early Wednesday morning.
I don't feel good about NM right now. Say what you want, but if I had to bet money, I'd bet on NM going for Bush. The polls have been consistently kind to him there for months. On the other hand, I think we have a really good shot at Ohio, and a pretty good shot at Florida.
I can guarantee you we won't come close in Tennessee, and I seriously seriously doubt we win Arkansas either. But 250K is a small price to pay for spooking Republicans and maybe conning them into wasting resources on the South.
The war was a mistake, and deaths of women and children are horrible. But we should share the blame with the Baathist thugs and non-Iraq terrorists that have torn the country up.
I think Kerry can do a better job of finishing the job in Iraq than Bush, but we should remember that most Iraqis want peace. If Amercian troops were in Iraq but the Baathists and terrorists were trying to tear the country up, Iraqi civilians wouldn't be dying.
Bush screwed up the war, and should lose his job. But that doesn't mean I want us to lose in Iraq or that I think that certain Iraqis don't hold a lot of the responsibility for what has happened.
I'm feeling really good about things right now. Seems like Kerry has made a 3-4 point move in the last week or so. If that's true, then we're going to win on Nov. 2 and it's not going to be that close.
I've been very encouraged by what I've seen today. We are looking strong in all the states we need to. If we win Ohio, Bush could possibly still win, but it would be really really hard. I'm really thinking now that Kerry could win this by 5 or 6 points. Prior experience has shown me that challengers and, lately, Democrats underperform a bit in polls. With the mega-high turnout, I can really imagine this being, not a blow out, but a comfortable win.