Brilliant post. What is exactly Obama's base? This is a guy who has managed to achieve high political standing without ever having to resort to a partisan knife fight. I'm knocking his talents at all, but a lot of other brilliant talented people in US history ended up falling victim to bad timing.
If Edwards gets it he will have the Steel and Mineworkers, rural farmers, pooverty and fair trade activists, and lefty sections of the blogosphere of the party to thank. That's his base he needs to stay true to. If Hillary gets it she will have to thank the public workers unions, the old Clinton machine, and the tons of state and elected Democratic officials.
If Obama get, he will have to thank..Oprah? That's a problem. It could end being Carter like situtation. Jimmy Carter came out of nowhere with little political support from traditional Democratic bases to win, largely based on his own personal honestly. When his back got pushed to the wall, he didn't have a base to hold him up.
Excellent article. We don't need a President who can bury the sixities, end culture wars, cross the partisan divide or whatever stupid reason people like Andrew Sullivan like him. We need a President who can save the middle class and is willing to take on those forces that is killing it off.
I would wait until Iowa until you put out this call. It's a three-way race, with Edwards having what most political observers view as the best on the ground operation in the state. What were odds makers putting on Kerry winning the nomination at this point four years ago? right now the MSM is fixated on the Obama rising/Hillary falling story. There is plenty of time for them to change track.
If Huckabee gets it, I think it will guarantee that a lot of the GOP's corporate elite will bail, making a Bloomburg candidacy more likely(not that he needs the money). I think he will do it if its clear that he won't throw the election to the GOP and these intial polls seem to indicate that he wouldn't.
As much as I find Obama appealing, his main message is that he's "new" and can get us beyond partisan pickering. Obama seems to think the big problem with the US is that the "Vietnam" boomer generation keeps fighting old fights. Edwards thinks that the big problem is whether or not successive generation of Americans will have brighter future than the former. My problem isn't partisan fist fights; its that the middle class is withering away, that life for working Americans is getting harder and more stressful while the rich get richer. My problems is that our Congress remains in the effective hands of an irresponsible economic elite that dosen't care about the American worker or cosumer, or, for that matter, the future of our nation. Edwards gets that; I'm going to stick with him.
Clinton has had consistently high poll number in Nevada, but -- and this is a big but - Nevada is a caucus state, not a primary. Caucus goers won't have to deal with subzero ice storms, but they will still have to actually get out and vote, and someone has to get them out there.
If Edwards can wrap the union vote, he will be in a very good position as they can supply the orginzational muscle to to get out the vote. As has been said before, the unions in Clark County are the core of the Nevada Democratic party and having them your corner could make the difference, particularly if Edwards is coming off an Iowa victory.
The big three Nevada union are waiting to see if Edwards wins Iowa. If he does, look for all the fence sitting unions, including the Teamsters, to start rolling out endorsements within days of an Edwards victory.
I have no idea what the ground operations are like in Nevada, but labor is pretty sophisticated out there so it could make a difference.
I agree that picking Arkansas as your test case is a stupid way to make your point. I'm more interesting in say, Ohio or Kentucky. But I see your point we should be scared about Huckabee. Romney, McCain, Giuliani, and Thompson at this might as well have a big L for loser stomped on their forehead. But Huckabee, heck I have a hard time hating him, even though he's in many ways scarier than all of them (except nuke 'em all Giuliani).
What I don't get is that he has no money. Dennis Kucinich have raised more cash than him. How can you expect to win the GOP nomination by being the poorest candidate in the field? You can be at a fundraising disadvantage, but to be as dirt broke as he is makes me wonder how he could slingshot an Iowa victory into the nomination.
The other thing is that Huckabee has a minimal ground operation. I don't know how you can win with the skeleton crew he's got, whatever the polls may say. But if he wins Iowa, I really hope Edwards will be celebrating at the same time.
Yeah I guess its like Nader except that Edwards is running as a Democrat, not as a third party candidate which I always thought was progressives problem with Ralph. So I guess there is actually little in common and your comparision is bs slander.
Do you really have love for politicians, even if they have a d next to their name, that load up on contributions from health insurance and credit card companies. I don't. I'm a progressive Democrat and support leaders like John Edwards who want the Democrats to return to the traditions of Roosevelt, Truman and Humphrey and be a party of the people, not the moneyed elites.
Brilliant ad. The boomer generation is feeling economically unsecure, and Edwards speaks to that in a direct, honest way. Its classic Edwards. Barack still avoids the issue, and while Clinton does talk about it, her credibility is hurt.
Iowa got burned by Kerry; that's causing Clinton trouble more than anything. "We already picked a supposedly electable centrist, flip-flopper before". Right now Iowan are dating Barack, but come caucus day, they will propose to Edwards.
And most importantly, Edwards is still the best organized on the ground. He's been to every county in the state, and has precinct leaders in nearly every one of the them. In any election, whether its county council or a presidential caucus, person-to-person networks and hands on campaigning by the candidate makes the difference. And on that front Edwards has them beat.
I can't wait until these caucuses actually happen. I've never even been to Iowa and I'm sick of it. Rememember that this was supposed to be the year Iowa wasn't going to matter any more. Here's my election prediction...come January all the candidates will be surging their ass of out of there.