The Bradley Effect-As in Bill Bradley

The polarizing debate about race and gender in recent weeks between the two Democratic front runners has obscured an even bigger divide among the Democratic electorate

From Marie Cocco at Real Clear Politics

The deepest division in the Democratic primary campaign until now has not been between blacks and whites, though we are likely to see stark evidence of that in the upcoming South Carolina primary. A fault line already is visible between upper-income, educated whites and those with lower incomes and less education. The upscale voters have gone with Obama, the downscale with Clinton.

Obama's major difference with previous "wine-track" candidates is the strong support he's getting from African Americans - Gary Hart managed in 1984 to get 0% of black voters - which in alliance with professionals and the more highly educated primary voters might be enough to win the nomination. But in the general election, winning back low-income and working class nonblack Democratic voters will be key -- and that means he will need to develop a more populist, "bread and butter" platform before November.

Obama's soaring rhetoric and appeal for "hope" mean a lot less to (working -class voters) than solid campaign proposals that address their day-to-day concerns. Bill Clinton faced media ridicule for his numbingly detailed plans. But voters didn't get the joke. They saw practical solutions they liked. This is a big reason Hillary Clinton now mimics the approach.

Tags: 2008 election, Class, clinton, obama, race (all tags)

Comments

4 Comments

Re: The Bradley Effect-As in Bill Bradley

Good analysis. If Obama wins the nomination, I definitely think he should take a running mate with red-meat appeal, like perhaps Jim Webb. Webb seems like the kind of guy who could really help get out the vote in WV, AR, KY, OH, PA, VA, NC, CO, and OK. Obama's natual appeal and midwestern ties should already solidify OR, WA, IA, MI, WI, and MN.

I don't know enough to judge what impact the broadness of Obama's campaign proposals will have, but there will be time to develop them as we get closer to November.

by X Stryker 2008-01-17 07:20AM | 0 recs
Re: The Bradley Effect-As in Bill Bradley

I don't think it's enough to win the primary. Those voters are concentrated in certain states. For example, I find it unlikely that Obama will win the GA primary. He'll get the black vote and the white liberal vote but not the hispanic or soccer mom vote or white working class vote. He'll do well mostly in Fulton county but the rest of the state he will probably fare poorly.

He seems to have the same problem that Dean and Bradley both had. He has a slim demographic that is enough to win in states like SC but not in places like OK.

by Ga6thDem 2008-01-17 08:10AM | 0 recs
Give it time

The media will have painted Hillary as the second coming of Hitler by the time Georgia rolls around.  Newsweek will be running long pieces on how she eats small children and how Obama's tears cure cancer.

Seriously, don't count Obama out.  After SC the media trumps all.  The days of politicing in barber shops, diners doing 3 round table or forums a day in high school gym basically ends.

It becomes jetting into 2 states in a day for a handful of quickly assembled rallies.  The media coverage will be so important.  Important enough to influence the outcome.

by dpANDREWS 2008-01-17 08:39AM | 0 recs
Re: Give it time

Well it didn't help him in NH did it? If that's true then the media really does want the GOP to win.

by Ga6thDem 2008-01-17 09:17AM | 0 recs

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