• Hawaii burning up your balls?

    I would have loved to have seen your internals when you made that proclamation.

    you were what? at least 53% point off!

    I know I will be banned but please do everyone a favor. Leave the site to the others writers.

    You don't have the flare for the critical component. Not like Todd or anyone else out there.

  • even more comical is watching Jerome uprate himself and take away rating privilege to those who took offense to him telling someone to go take there meds.

  • of course. I've said this many times myself already.

    according to Pew, 75% of Latinos are native born and 25% are naturalized citizens.

  • that's a completely valid point and I completely agree with you.

    I'm not saying blacks and Latinos will make up 26% of the voting population as r2k breaks down.

    However, it is faulty logic to peg these numbers against exit polls from 2004. We'd just be compounding the problems that are inherent in exit polls.

  • Latinos made up 15.1% as of 2007.

    Not all undocumented or illegals are counted by the census bureau. But yeah, it will hurt us.

    With that said, a factor that will hold the Latino vote under their national average is age. It is a younger demographic.

    Anything under 10% would be a failure IMO.

  • that's one way of looking at his posts.

    one only need to look at Sirota or Rosenberg to see how one can be critical of Obama within the framework of being behind his candidacy.  

    In any regard, I admire your positive outlook on why Jerome has been posting a certain way.

    I almost think it will pain Jerome to be proven wrong by an Obama presidency and having Markos outguess him every step of the way.

    and I'm still chuckling over Jerome's prediction of a big Hillary victory in Hawaii.

  • comment on a post Judis & Bowers on Research 2000 polling over 5 years ago

    the problem with Judis is he's taking exit polls as a factual basis. No one knows what the real numbers were in 2004. They are in fact, no better then the latest r2k or Rasmussen poll.

    But I digress. The U.S. is 13% black and over 15% latino now. If we can't break 21% shame on the Democratic party and our ground game.

    In fact, while r2k is perhaps overreaching in their minority sample size, those numbers are not entirely bogus or far fetched. Latinos are more politically energized then ever and blacks have a chance to vote for an African American for the first time in their lives.

  • she does expand the narrative that the two Republicans are liars and together they can't be trusted.

    I'd run with this story line as long as they can. Lying has been a strong pattern for them and psychologically, the message should resonate with the American people at a fairly deep level.

    but as you say, it can't just be about her. McCain needs to be explicitly linked to lying as well.

  • on a comment on Open Thread over 5 years ago

    hampton roads area isn't as GOP as you might think.

    in fact, the 11 counties surrounding the bay, Bush picks up a net of 15k votes. That is more then offset by Richmond City.

    anyone that knows Virginia like the back of their ass knows that a McCain win Virginia goes through central and western counties such as chesterfield, Augusta, Bedford, hanover, roanoke...

  • comment on a post Obama Up in MI and NH, McCain Up in VA and MO over 5 years ago

    i'm not sure I agree with you regarding the virginia beach/norfolk/newport news area.

    Despite having a strong military presence, that region is very Democratic outside the city of Virginia Beach. It was a huge bastion for Obama in the primaries in fact.

    What Obama will not do relative to Webb is outperform in the western portions of the state that are in Appalachia.

  • comment on a post Voter Age & ID this decade over 5 years ago

    considering how well the Dems did in '06, it's hard to believe that these breakdowns are at all accurate at a national level. Especially considering the age breakdown would have been very kind to the GOP.

    then again, CNN seems to have had the black vote in N.Carolina off by about 5% (overcount) in the 2004 presidential election.

    these numbers really don't mean much actually. They're the equivalent of a Zogby poll.

  • on a comment on Later Alligator over 5 years ago

    If anything we should be discussing if her being the Veep is good for the GOP's senate chances whether Stevens sticks around (rallying GOP straight ticket ballots) or drops out (taking her out as a possible senate candidate).

  • comment on a post Later Alligator over 5 years ago

    i think its great that they will stash Palin away (at least for the time being).

    we really should focus on how awful mcCain is anyhow.

  • comment on a post Barack Hits Back Against GOP Convention Attacks over 5 years ago

    i'm truly, wholeheartedly broke at this moment in time (school is back in session and I've maxed myself out on lower ticket races for the year) but I just chipped in $50.

    Do I feel guilty for spending money I don't have? yeah. But I'm sure someone that can better afford it will match my contribution and make me feel better about my lack of fiscal discipline.

  • comment on a post Open Thread over 5 years ago

    I'm not sure I'm getting all this Sweitzer love. The guy obviously is pretty great and he has fun doing what he does but let's not get ahead of ourselves.

    There are dozens of other politicians who are more progressive and would give us better energy and social issue solutions.

Diaries

Advertise Blogads