Bush's approvals are inching up...


Bush's poll ratings are trending up from the low 40s to the high 40s.  Fox Propoganda was trumpeting this all over the place this morning and it was all smiles from the professional asskissers journalists over there.

What does it take for this nation to get real about this man?

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Fox news
polls are higher than the rest. let's wait for some more polls. Low forty's still isn't good.
by Ga6thDem 2005-12-03 07:19AM | 0 recs
I hate Fox, but I HATE distortion more...
Fox polling is done by Opinion Dynamics, a polling company owned by former and occassionally current Democratic Party operatives.  Fox polling and Rasmussen have been the most accurate polls the last 3 elections cycles.

I know you hate it but truth is truth.  Rove and Bush didn't care that his polling was in the dumps for awhile.  What matters to them is the fall elections.  They've planned their current public opinion counter-offensive to peak at election time.  It's very frightening to point out that they are only one week in to their counter-offensive and the polls are moving very, very steadily in Bush's favor.  Hate Rove all you want, but he knows what he is doing.  We need to fight back!

by Blue Dreams 2005-12-03 07:43AM | 0 recs
Re: I hate Fox, but I HATE distortion more...
 You think Rove is doing any good? LOL
by turnerbroadcasting 2005-12-03 03:48PM | 0 recs
Three words to keep in mind
Margin of error.

1.96 times the square root of ((percentage A [dubya's approval] times percentage B [dubya's disapproval]) divided by the total sample)

by Michael Bersin 2005-12-03 08:25AM | 0 recs
it's like the fake economic
numbers .. it's a sham

don't mean a thing

by soph 2005-12-03 08:38AM | 0 recs
Bush's uptick is overdue--
Bush's approval numbers have closely (inversely) tracked gasoline prices since the spring of 2002 -- gas up, Bush down, and vice versa.  Lately however, gas prices have been falling and Bush's numbers have been falling faster.  It was easy to guess that eventually pollees would resume voting their gas tanks and, well, they have.

The real test is whether his numbers climb back up to their 45-50% plateau when gas prices stabilize, or if a solid chunk of pollees has simply had it with him.



by drlimerick 2005-12-03 10:46AM | 0 recs
Re: Bush's uptick is overdue--
Also, note on the gas-price graphic that his downslide has been bumpy, not smooth -- down, up a little, down more, up a little. . .

It's too early to tell if that pattern is over with.  I'd say it depends on Mr. Fitzgerald.

by drlimerick 2005-12-03 10:53AM | 0 recs
Natural gas
Wait until the natural gas heating bills start coming in.
by Michael Bersin 2005-12-03 02:56PM | 0 recs
Will see but i can't see how people
Would warm up to him all the sudden.
by Liberal 2005-12-03 12:40PM | 0 recs
Americans have amazingly short memories.
by johnny longtorso 2005-12-03 12:43PM | 0 recs
not really that much.
In Rasmussen, he has gone up from the low 40's (42-43) to mid-40's range (44-46) - that's a whopping 3%! On Fox he's only at 42% - it's laughable that these ratings are cause for celebration. On Wall Street, this is what you call a "dead cat" bounce. The "rebound" that follows a stock market crash.

Also, consider this. Election forecasting accuracy can be measured by the vote count. Presidential approval has no "gold standard" to measure against. A pollster who inserts political bias into an election forecast, would fear missing the actual election results. This is not a concern with inserting bias into presidential approval ratings. That is why political bias of the pollster is exceptionally sinister with Presidential Approval Ratings polls.

by bushsucks 2005-12-03 02:17PM | 0 recs
Type of sample
In addition, there's a big difference among the types of samples you'll encounter in these national polls: "Adults Over 18", "Registered Voters", and "Likely Voters".

Every opinion research firm has proprietary models for "Likely Voters" (voter turnout, really). This far out from a general election "Likely Voters" are hard to gage. Why this group when dubya won't be running for election? Well, their opinion (and vote) will be seen as a referendum on that little man who still occupies the White House.

Those pesky "Adults Over 18" are an interesting group. They have a dark view of the dubya's reality and a good chunk of them doesn't vote. The same with a portion of the "Registered Voters" sample (at least the part which doesn't vote). Bear in mind that one firm's type of "Likely Voters" (most restrictive sample based on turnout) would be included in samples of "Registered Voters" and "Adults Over 18" (least restrictive sample based on turnout).

What does this all mean? When it comes to elections political operatives want to do everything they can to suppress the registration and turnout of "Adults Over 18"; and, they'll do the same for those "Registered Voters" who haven't  shown by their history that they actually vote. The operatives do everything they can to turn out their base while working to make the opposition's base give up and not turn out to vote.

republican voters as a group have a tendency to vote come hell or high water. Democratic voters as a group have a less than stellar record.

The strategery of the incumbent in 2004 was simple: they knew he was going to lose some of his 2000 voters (and remember, at that time they came 543,895 votes short), so they worked to increase their base by convincing a certain subsection of the severly reality challenged right wingnut world that has a tendency to not vote to actually vote for that little man. This by targetting their market.

Sure enough, in 2004 Democratic voters turned out in larger numbers (yes, we can recognize that dubya is a colossal screw up), a few disaffected dubya voters went with the Democratic Party candidate, and the republicans significantly increased the size of their base.

Realizing that the plural of anecdote is not data, I have recently observed that some of those voters who were part of that increased base which voted for dubya have expressed serious disappointment with they way things are turning out. It has something to do with their moral values - some are catching the disconnect between words and deeds - and they don't like it. As things now stand, I believe that a number 2004 voters in this subgroup will sit on their hands for the 2006 election. For all our sakes, I hope that impact is significant.  

by Michael Bersin 2005-12-03 02:54PM | 0 recs
looks pretty bad to me
the polling report
by skippy 2005-12-03 02:27PM | 0 recs
Re: looks pretty bad to me
Yep, the "Time Poll conducted by Schulman, Ronca & Bucuvalas (SRBI) Public Affairs - Nov. 29-Dec. 1, 2005. N=1,004 adults nationwide - MoE ± 3" shows dubya inching down with "adults nationwide" when compared  to their previous poll.
by Michael Bersin 2005-12-03 03:21PM | 0 recs
Doubleplus good redact mission accomplished. stop. Thoughtcrime democrat kill relocate ministry of love. Stop.  War against East-AlQaeda top operative captured today. Stop.
by turnerbroadcasting 2005-12-03 03:50PM | 0 recs


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