Bad Night for Obama - Hillary won the nomination last night

Guys, Last night was a great night for democrats. Every one can see the two great candidates democrats have for the General Election. But coming back to the Democratic nomination, I think what happened last night was to Hillary's advantage. I dont think Hillary herself would have expected. Here is my reasoning and rationalizion for that:

When ever Obama goes on attack againsy Hillary, he gets a free pass due to the Clinton History and MSM. See what happened in South Carolina, last week debate. Obama started with Walmart comment and Hillary retaliated and overall Hillary got burnt. Obama still has that likable guy image and what ever he says against clintons, he gets a free pass.

The momentum Obama was building from South Carolina win is mainly due to the reaction against Clintons, mainly Bill. But last night looking at the debate, its like we reset the whole thing and Hillary shows her mettle in policy and comes as likable enough. And it gave the idea that these two can be on the same ticket and every one knows its only going to happen if it is Clinton - Obama , not the other way around.

From the policy wise, every one knows Hillary has advantage in Health Care , Obama on Iraq and any rest of the issues Hillary has a slight advantage, her being a policy wank. The main advantage Obama, has is on the likeability side and last night both of them came as likeable. It feels like I am exhausted this morning for all the antiicpation for this debate and now I feel comfortable with both of the candidates and its not a good thing for Obama. Obama needs to have the momentum of anti Hillary going for him to win and after last night I dont think it exists.
Any how thats my thaughts and would love to hear from rest of you guys.

Tags: Democrats, Hillary, obama (all tags)

Comments

34 Comments

Re: Bad Night for Obama -

Obama really botched the healthcare issue last night. And no one cares about the Iraq war vote. Even Democratic primary voters don't care that much.

Obama doesn't come off well in these debates. He comes off as rambling and unfocused.

by Ga6thDem 2008-02-01 04:47AM | 0 recs
Re: Bad Night for Obama -

"And no one cares about the Iraq war vote. Even Democratic primary voters don't care that much."

Uh huh.

by mcdave 2008-02-01 06:21AM | 0 recs
Re: Bad Night for Obama -

Have looked at the exit polls? Obviously not by your comment. The only people who care about that are people like you. If it was such a big issue then why has Obama only gotten two wins so far?

by Ga6thDem 2008-02-01 06:55AM | 0 recs
I agree she won

and when they talked about both of them on the ticket it was obvious that Clinton/Obama made a lot more sense.

No one except bloggers care about the Iraq vote.  Her reasoning was sincere and I believe her.  The media can spin her as a liar, but that is not what America sees.  

Rachel Maddow was a real disappointment last night.  She seems to be stuck in the cynical angry meme of 2002 about Clinton's vote.  She needs to go watch Clinton, Edwards and Kerry's floor speeches where they explained their vote. Edwards was a full out hawk , Kerry was standing on both sides of the issue and completely disengenuous and Clinton said exactly what she said last night.  Even Olberman was a disappointment because he didn't seem to know that was not a new stance by Clinton.

But in any case, not many people care about that vote.  They care about getting some relief from the misery of the bush years.

by MollieBradford 2008-02-01 05:08AM | 0 recs
Re:

I would not say it was a bad night for Obama, but after watching the debate late last night I have to say that Hillary won it pretty convincingly.  Iraq is not an issue here (IMO) with those who made the Iraq vote into a big thing (a dealbreaker) not only a very small portion of the Democratic electorate, but also already decided long time ago.   So, taking the rest of the debate, Hillary won it pretty clearly.  

The primary right now is about these issues, in descending order:

1. The economy

  1. Health Care
  2. changing government
  3. Iraq

I think Hillary is poised to win this thing despite the media yelping, despite Obama's money advantage and establishment ties, on her relative strength (in comparison with Obama) on almost all important issues.  

by georgep 2008-02-01 05:10AM | 0 recs
Hillary won the nomination last night

Obama did not do badly, he just did not do well enough.  For one thing, he just doesn't have the goods.  The only poilicy advantage he has is that he stood against the war when it cost him nothing politically. Obama can and does make that argument well, for a few minutes, but after that he's done. Hillary dominates on everything else.

The other thing is that this is just her perfect setting. No one does this better, especially when they are constrained to be on good behavior and she goes on a charm offensive.  The only hope he had was to draw her out into an angry exchange, and she wasn't biting at the tentative bait Obama and Wolf threw out.

She even pre-empted one attack, based on the speech Obama gave in Denver.  Near the beginning when they were talking about differences in foreign policy, she went on the offensive in a disarming, not attacking, way, and led with the reference to Obama saying he would meet with all the dictators in the first year of the presidency , and saying how her approach differed in that she would talk to enemies after proper groundwork has been layed.  In his Denver Speech, Obama outright lied about her position on that, saying she would never talk to enemies, just like Bush. She didn't even give him the chance to do that last night. I think that threw him off at the beginning.

She would mop up the floor with McCain or Romney, that was clear.

By the end I really had the gut feeling that she has won the nomination.  I have never had that feeling at all, not even in the months she was ahead in all the polls.  I knew that would not last. But short of a major disaster over the weekend, I think she will have a great Tuesday.

by ocli 2008-02-01 05:23AM | 0 recs
Hillary sounded Presidential

My wife is nervous about Hillary but she got jazzed last night. And that was what she said. Hillary is presidential, Obama still has the wannabe aspect.

by ineedalife 2008-02-01 05:48AM | 0 recs
Re: Bad Night for Obama - Hillary won the nominati

I was in agreement with you until they got to Iraq.  Also, people are just getting to know Obama.  They're showing up to his rallies in huge crowds because they're curious.  Anybody who watched last night liked what they saw.

Anyway, I hope you're wrong because if Clinton wins, we will lose in November.

by Drummond 2008-02-01 05:57AM | 0 recs
Re: Bad Night for Obama - Hillary won the nominati

Your opinion. Most democrats think we'll lose if Obama is nominee.  

by ottovbvs 2008-02-01 06:04AM | 0 recs
Re: Bad Night for Obama - Hillary won the nominati

Ummm. No they don't.

by mcdave 2008-02-01 06:22AM | 0 recs
Re: Bad Night for Obama - Hillary won the nominati

Just about every poll I've seen says Democrats  consider her more electable but these arguments are futile. Let's just wait until Tuesday and we'll find out.  

by ottovbvs 2008-02-01 06:55AM | 0 recs
Re: Bad Night for Obama - Hillary won the nominati

Maybe.  But it's not about what "most Democrats" think.  It's about what Republicans will do to her.  She's much more vulnerable and they're just waiting to pounce.

by Drummond 2008-02-01 09:46AM | 0 recs
Re: Many Ways to Win for Clinton

Clinton or Obama are favored to win all of the Gore States plus NH including IA,and NM.
264 plus
Ohio,Nevada,Colorado,Florida,Missouri,Vi rginia

I will exclude Arkansas and Arizona assuming Republicans nominate a McCain-Huckabee ticket.

by nkpolitics 2008-02-01 06:45AM | 0 recs
Re: Many Ways to Win for Clinton

Obama could challenge McCain in the whole midwest.  He practically owns Kansas for instance.  Colorado.  Wisconsin.  

And it's much more fluid than campaigns in the past.  The more people learn of Obama, the more like him.  Clinton's got a hardcore Republican opposition, which will put away their differences with McCain to do her in - Coulter's offhand comments notwithstanding.  They hate her - irrationally.  And they will turn out to defeat her.

by Drummond 2008-02-01 09:49AM | 0 recs
Re: Many Ways to Win for Clinton

I'm sorry with the most optimistic thinking, the Dakotas, Nebraska and Kansas are still red states.  These are a different kind of a Democrat than their cousins on the coasts.

by ejintx 2008-02-01 09:57AM | 0 recs
Re: Many Ways to Win for Clinton

Depends on how badly off they are.  Also, the demographics are changing everywhere as progressives who aren't rich find they can't live on the coasts.

by Drummond 2008-02-01 12:42PM | 0 recs
Taking the temperature here

Naturally everyone tends to say their own candidate "won" but I was struck by the fact here last night that even the most dedicated Obama fans were giving her a lot of grudging credit or talking about "draws". It's a cliche but my take was she was in control most of the time and only looked shaky on the Iraq vote issue which is only really of importance to the folks who are most opposed to her anyway. This was the conclusion the folks in the CNN focus group came to almost exactly. Shaky on Iraq, but a 60/40 win on everything else. At the end of the day these debates are only important if there's a major gaffe, otherwise they really just reinforce positive or negative feelings about a candidate. Neither made a major gaffe and so broadly speaking it probably just reinforced existing perceptions. Overall this probably helps her slightly more than him because he failed to demonstrate a compelling reason for choosing him while she displayed the usual steady competence and detailed grasp of issues.

History, however, is full of tricks. Who in 1940 would have predicted the next three presidents would be Truman, Eisenhower and Kennedy.  

by ottovbvs 2008-02-01 06:03AM | 0 recs
Re: Taking the temperature here new Rasmussen poll

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Barack Obama inching closer to Hillary Clinton in the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination. It's now Clinton 43%, Obama 37%. (see recent daily numbers). A week ago, Clinton had an eleven point advantage, 41% to 30%.

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The last two nights of tracking were the first without John Edwards in the race. For those two nights, it's Clinton 44% and Obama 42% meaning that Clinton's support is essentially unchanged. This suggests that many former Edwards supporters now support Obama, many others have yet to make a decision, and few currently support Clinton.

LAST TWO NIGHTS CLINTON 44 OBAMA 42

by BDM 2008-02-01 06:07AM | 0 recs
Re: Taking the temperature here new Rasmussen poll

And two weeks before that the gap in Ras was 3 points. By all means stake your life on the accuracy of the Ras polls if you like, I choose not to since they are after Zogby probably the most suspect polling organization.

by ottovbvs 2008-02-01 06:58AM | 0 recs
Re: Taking the temperature here new Rasmussen poll

Point is, Obama has beaten the polling predictions in every race but New Hampshire.

by Drummond 2008-02-01 09:50AM | 0 recs
Re: Bad Night for Obama - Hillary won the nominati

Clinton/Obama? Can't wait for the Chris Matthews on air meltdown!!!!!!!!!!!

by Alice Marshall 2008-02-01 06:07AM | 0 recs
Hillary won the nomination last night

I was shocked last night. After listening to all the pundits for the last month, I expected this Clinton lady to come out on stage in a KKK hood eating live puppies. They made her seem like the wicked witch of the west and satan's spawn all rolled up into one.

But, she came off as pretty impressive to me.

by hwc 2008-02-01 06:08AM | 0 recs
Focus -Pocus

Luntz's focus group said that Obama won by about 25-5... overwhelmingly said Obama took her down on Iraq.

None of these focus groups are scientific but you are deluding yourself if you think Obama did not dominate the Iraq discussion and with 65 dead today in bombings in bagdad and attacks on US troops rising the last 40 days... Iraq is going to re-emerge as the biggest issue by summer.

Obama is on the right side of IRaq and HRC is stuck on the wrong side. She is a good debater..no doubt about it but even a great debater cannot defend her vote for AUMF and against the Levin Amendment. The last piece of the puzzle was asking her why she did not bother to read the NIE before voting to go to war. Too bad Wolfe did not ask that question after she said she did all her homework on Iraq before voting..no you did not HRC..you know it.

She is a smart person and a better person than Bill and I do not dislike her..just prefer Obama,Ok?

by hawkjt 2008-02-01 06:11AM | 0 recs
Re: Focus -Pocus

Luntz always says that but somehow when it comes to votes, Obama hasn't been able to deliver.

by Ga6thDem 2008-02-01 06:59AM | 0 recs
Re: Focus -Pocus

I don't trust Mr Luntz but you as a real democrat I'm sure do. I saw the CNN group which was moderated by someone without and agenda and it seemed pretty clear to me. And what is it with this absolute belief in extreme Republicns by all you Obamanauts. You seem to hang on every word of Novak, Drudge, Broder, Krauthammer and all these people. Doesn't the thought cross your mind for a nanosecond that they might have a reason for their spin.

by ottovbvs 2008-02-01 07:03AM | 0 recs
Re: Focus -Pocus
And btw I have repeatedly stated here and the CNN group picked it up also that he was stronger in the Iraq section than she. Elsewhere she was stronger. The problem here is in perception of the importance of the issue. It's been dwindling for months. Furthermore this vote issue is a big deal for all the Obama fans but it's simply not for everyone else because amongst othr things most people in the country were complicit in it.
The country left this debate behind long ago. If Obama is hanging his claim to be president of the USA on a vote he made while state senator in IL it seems a fairly feeble basis to me.    
by ottovbvs 2008-02-01 07:08AM | 0 recs
I agree

I think Hillary won the debate, despite Obama probably having the strongest debate on policy that I have seen him have. Hillary showed a whole new audiance how knowledgable she is on policy, highlighted her experience brilliantly and won or tied every section with the exception of Iraq. She also scored points in the likability issue. She had the biggest applause line and probably the best line of the night.

On the other hand Obama has the best line against McCain about the wheels coming off the straight talk express. He scored high with Iraq. If Iraq was still the biggest issue you could make the arguement that he tied or even won the debate, but the Economy across the board seems to be peoples' top concern, and healthcare I believe is not far behind Iraq. I'm not sure if Hillary won the nomination, but she certainly won the debate.

by Christopher Lib 2008-02-01 06:16AM | 0 recs
Re debate

All of these posts are opinion's based upon the biases of the poster's support for their candidate.

Their has been no proof  of who won this debate and what will happen in the day's ahead.

So far what I have seen by poll's is the race is tightening. I follow the Gallup and Rasmussen daily tracking poll.

by BDM 2008-02-01 06:21AM | 0 recs
Hillary won the nomination

I concur with all of the above.

Going into the debate, Hillary had only the worst of press, which is to be expected from fifteen years of anti-Clinton feeling by the MSM.

But last night, nobody but the most rabid anti-Clinton person could not conclude she was truly focused, truly astounding in the breadth of her analyses, particularly on health care.

Focus groups by CNN and others gave the nod to her.

And focus groups of undecideds broke her way 60-40.

And she had the most wildly applauded line of the evening: "It took a Clinton to clean up after the first Bush, and it may well take another Clinton to clean up after the second Bush!"

The applause and enthusiasm in that room just after that remark was thunderous.  It was not merely the most winning line, it was THE LINE of the entire fourteen-month campaign.

Obama folk are quick to point out that they better remember his "Being right from Day One!"

But it is in this fact alone that they do not acknowledge just why they cannot prevail on Super Tuesday.

The Clinton remark was all about being a DEMOCRAT, and Democrats ate it up.  The Obama remark was all about being OBAMA and Obama fans ate it up.

Unfortunately for the latter, this is a DEMOCRATIC primary and DEMOCRATS will decide their nominee.

Democrats love their history; they loved the peace and prosperity of the Clinton years.

Obama fans began their endorsement of Obama with his intended anti-Iraq War vote.  It has formed the nucleus of their gripe against Senator Clinton ever since.

But whereas for them that forms the first basis for their Obama attachment, for most Democrats, as for most of the nation, other issues have long since eclipsed the war--the economy and health care being paramount.

After Senator Clinton's dazzling peformance last night, there is simply no reason for hardcore Democrats to abandon her in favor of a three-year Senate veteran.

For that to have happened, Obama would have needed a knock-out, a sort of "This is why I am so loved; this is why the MSM hates Hillary."

It just didn't happen.  Nobody but the most mindless anti-Clintonite witnessing that debate can conclude that Hillary is hateful.

She came across winningly, deflty avoiding the mines planted by Wolf Blitzer and others, and she came across as an absolute master of most issues presented.

Whereas, however intelligent and thoughtful, and whatever his rhetoric, it was apparent that Barack Obama has many fine qualities--but was still, in terms of sheer comprehension and experience, not in the same league as Hillary Clinton.

And one need not look to "tightening" poll numbers.

Such numbers mislead for several reasons.

California is a prime example.  Over one-half of that electorate has already voted.  Hillary was well ahead in every California survey heretofore; thus, that one half would already be breaking for her easily. And it would mean, therefore, that roughly twice that number would need to go to Obama on election day--even with hopes to come close.  Which, of course, isn't going to happen.

These early voting patterns are also evidenced in other states, when, again, Hillary was far ahead in numbers.

Thus, a very significant part of the national electorate has already voted for Clinton in high numbers.  These votes cannot be recalled, and any measure of current polling is not relevant to them.

One has only to examine the campaign history thus far.  Clinton has won in every contest save two: Iowa and South Carolina.

But Iowa was a caucus--and its outcome represented some nine months of busing in outside forces by the Obama campaign.  And, even on that caucus day, bedrock Democrats split between Edwards and Clinton, whereas Obama collected the nontraditional first voters, indies and cross-overs.  Thus, Iowa was an anomaly--not a norm.

As to South Carolina, again, one must consider the fact that this was a very heavily racially charged primary, and in the end, Obama won a massive share of African-Americans, while losing the massive share of non-African-Americans.  So, again, an anomaly--not a norm.

The Florida results--however "uncotested"--are the true model for Super Tuesday.

This was the most populous and diverse state to have voted thus far; a true presidential "bell-weather" in every sense of the word.

Real people voting--some one million four hundred thousand on the Democratic side.  They voted KNOWING that their votes might not be realized at the Democratic Convention, and knowing full well about the Kennedy endorsements and the Obama South Carolina success.

Yet these voters overwhelmingly chose Clinton--and across the boards, save for African-Americans.

That is the true model for California and other major states on Tuesday.  One does not need poll numbers to understand reality--not when one reads actual results out of Florida, only a week before Super Tuesday.

For the MSM, this campaign has been all about stopping the Clintons.  They loathe them, and hope that they can drive Democrats to loathe them as well.

That isn't going to happen.  It was never going to happen.

Florida proved that, and come Super Tuesday, Hillary will have a very big win--collecting the lion's share of state triumphs.

And she will become the nominee.  Should she choose Senator Obama, that will be an extraordinary ticket.

But whatever her decision, she will become the first woman President of the United States.

The numbers may now favor John McCain.  But Hillary has yet to engage in a debate--and she will prove masterful.

And the Clinton tandem?  Well, they know how to win national elections.

Which is another reason Clinton will triumph on Tuesday.

by lambros 2008-02-01 06:16AM | 0 recs
Re: Hillary won the nomination

She lost the debate on the Iraq discussion

by BDM 2008-02-01 06:22AM | 0 recs
Re: Bad Night for Obama -

I thought they both did well.

I think Hillary helped herself a lot by going back to the softer side of her, which seems regular people like more.  She went back to the "I found my voice" mode- which is appealing.

She came out like a bulldog in South Carolina- yes, she was tough, hard as nails, but it comes across as caustic- although she might have to do that at times just because she's a woman and she needs to prove she can be as tough as a man, so maybe alternating the two is a good strategy.  My mother says she won't vote on a woman for President- she says a woman can't represent the office as well as a man.  Look, I know that's archaic and seems impossible in this day and age- but that mode of thought is still out there- not only among men but some women, as well- so Hilary being tough helps her at times, but I think the majority prefer her like she was last night.  Reading other message boards, there were SO MANY people saying they found they "liked" her when they had hated her before.  It's all such a fine line- I saw her changing some minds last night-  what will happen next Tuesday- I don't know, we'll see soon enough.

by reasonwarrior 2008-02-01 06:26AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking news

In a resounding vote today, MoveOn.org Political Action's members nationwide voted to endorse Senator Barack Obama for the Democratic nomination for President. The group, with 3.2 million members nation-wide and over 1.7 million members in Super Tuesday states, will immediately begin to mobilize on behalf of Senator Obama. The vote favored Senator Obama to Senator Clinton by 70.4% to 29.6%.
Senator Obama accepted the endorsement stating:

""In just a few years, the members of MoveOn have once again demonstrated that real change comes not from the top-down, but from the bottom-up. From their principled opposition to the Iraq war - a war I also opposed from the start - to their strong support for a number of progressive causes, MoveOn shows what Americans can achieve when we come together in a grassroots movement for change. I thank them for their support and look forward to working with their members in the weeks and months ahead."

Eli Pariser, MoveOn.org's Executive Director, issued the following statement on the group's endorsement:

"Our members' endorsement of Senator Obama is a clear call for a new America at this critical moment in history. Seven years of the disastrous policies of the Bush Administration have left the country desperate for change. We need a President who will bring to bear the strong leadership and vision required to end the war in Iraq, provide health care to every American, deal with our climate crisis, and restore America's standing in the world. The enormity of the challenges require someone who knows how to inspire millions to get involved to change the direction of our country, and someone who will be willing to change business as usual in Washington. Senator Barack Obama has proved he can and will be that President."

"With 3.2 million members nationwide and over 1.7 million members in states that vote next Tuesday, we'll be able to immediately jump into action in support of Senator Obama's candidacy. We've learned that the key to achieving change in Washington without compromising core values is having a galvanized electorate to back you up. And Barack Obama has our members 'fired up and ready to go' on that front.

by BDM 2008-02-01 06:50AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking news

What a surprise. That's like saying the VFW are going to endorse John McCain. They've just ensured they are never get another cent from me.  

by ottovbvs 2008-02-01 07:17AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama needs CA to stay competitive

He just needs a large chunk of the Bay Area and LA votes to come in close enough.  He'll take the valley and the rural perimeter and do just fine here delegatewise.

by Drummond 2008-02-01 09:51AM | 0 recs

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