On recommend diaries, or the lack there of. At the beginning of the year or thereabouts, the ability to recommend a diary was tied to the ability to rate a comment. Through the abuse of ratings -- troll rating comments that are not against the guidelines -- users lose their ability to rate, and therefore, they lose the ability to recommend diaries.

Also, when you are a "new user" you don't have the ability.

I've been meaning to post something on this for a while, and have been swamped with work, but popped in here to see a diary on this issue. This is exactly the same mechanism that was used in 2004 on MyDD throughout the election.

As it says, when you click on either of the map counters of EV's:

"This Electoral Vote Map is updated constantly to forecast the 2008 Presidential election based on the latest available state polling."

The very latest poll in each state, without weighting or averaging.

There isn't a bias as to the pollster, if you see the poll listed as credible on Pollster.com, or RealClearPolitics.com, it'll be included. But, if the latest poll is tied, then the result remains the same as the previous latest poll.

This is a forecast made by the very latest poll. If you see a mistake, perhaps a poll was missed that is the latest, then point it out, and one of the admins will make the change.

The forecast isn't a prediction of the election, but a simple up-to-the-minute poll temperature of the state polling.

(update) And yes, you can edit the map yourself, as one user explains:

1) When you first log onto mydd, it populates the two maps with the most recent single poll for each state.

2) If you then click on the map and change it (for example, you don't believe that Hillary would lose WA to McCain), the numbers update to your settings - now it becomes like an EV calculator

3) The next time you log on, or refresh the page even, the counters go back to their poll-generated state.

Clinton wound up winning by about 147K votes, while winning every single West Virginia county. This makes interesting news on the overall popular vote totals. For all votes cast, this means that Obama leads currently by about 80,000 votes. Its tough to guess what Kentucky will bring, or the other states, but there's little doubt that, even not including the totals from Puerto Rico, that Clinton will lead from all the votes taken in the 50 contests.

Yes, Obama took his name off the ballot in Michigan, we know.

Of course, votes are to elect delegates, and on this issue, it seems hypothetical to invest in any particular count, until the MI and FL matter is settled at the end of the month. I can't imagine that the DNC would not settle it on the 31st, one way or another. At that point, the delegate margin will become clear, and we'll know exactly how many super-delegates are needed for either candidate to win the nomination. Of course, the SD's lean toward Obama currently, as he gains a handful every day. I still expect that Clinton is stockpiling pledged-delegates in the event that Obama falters in a way that's fatal, before the convention.

Onto Kentucky & Oregon. Clinton could win in KY by 30 percent, and Obama is expected to win in OR by double-digits. There's clearly someting happening though, in regards of support for Obama, as he failed mightily at GOTV in WV, despite outspending Clinton, and as I noted yesterday, with voting underway in OR, SUSA has it tied among those whom have voted. Then we have the NE primary results, which, while merely a beauty contest, ended with Obama winning by a narrow 49 - 47 margin over Clinton.

I fail to see how the tactics of Obama shifting to the GE, and mailing it in for the remaining primaries, helps his case. It reminds me of the '76 Republican nomination, when Reagan began winning nearly all of the closing states, even though Ford remained with delegate lead at the convention (its ironic how NC also played a large role in that contest). I also don't think that Clinton is interested in the VP position with Obama. "Yes, yes, yes" seems like a 'yea, yea, yea, whatever, you know which way I have to answer that question').

As last night showed, the national terrain looks vory good for Democrats. The GE is very different, in terms of turnout, but we will most certainly make gains in Congress. In the presidential, I don't know, its still early, but I'm currently pessimistic on our chances.

The CNN exit polling for West Virginia, and the results are now coming in. Obama's ahead in Randolph county, with 3% reporting, so I might be wrong about his not winning a single county.

Update [2008-5-13 21:51:26 by Jerome Armstrong]: It's 64-29 with 35% reporting. Obama has declined to give a speech this evening following the WV results. Clinton is ahead in every single WV county reporting. Obama may not even break 30 percent, despite being practically anointed with the nomination?!?! Look, this is a partisan blog. Nearly everyone will come around to supporting the nominee here, but if Obama doesn't recognize the serious problem this presents in the world offline, and his supporters as well, I am speechless (which may not be a bad thing considering).

Update [2008-5-13 22:55:26 by Jerome Armstrong]: It's 66-27, with 65% reporting. Clinton has gained over 90,000 votes in the popular vote total thus far tonight. In Mason County, Clinton leads by a 72 - 19 margin.

Update [2008-5-13 23:44:26 by Todd Beeton]:Clinton is now up 41% over Obama and has exceeded a net of 120,000 votes. Pretty incredible margin.

Nothing too surprising, via the AP.

About 75% agree on supporting suspension of the gas tax (not even with the windfall tax on the table), 70% of Clinton and 50% of Obama supporters, but I don't think its been much of an issue.

... AND LOOKING AHEAD TO NOVEMBER

The comparison that many make of Obama's situation, with that of Bill Clinton in '92 is very weak. First, the only contenders left against Clinton were Tsongas and Brown, and they were never that close to being competitive.  Second, the candidacy of Perot was able to take the media presence off of Clinton, allowing Clinton to get his campaign in order, and take advantage of Perot's demise during the convention. The dynamics of '92 are not at all similar to the dynamics of '08.

O, showing it in jeans for the photo-op, saying "no flash".

Do we really have to have to nominate our version of Bush?

I really miss that good old site, "Media Whores Online."

Update [2008-5-13 19:15:46 by Jerome Armstrong]: Heh, Obama supporters are offended by the comparison of Obama's preening for the media with Bush's preening for the media. Certainly Obama's agenda will be different that Bush's, thank goodness, but in this regard, it is what it is I'm afraid.

The Obama campaign credits the Clinton's with investing into the WV primary:

But apparently, even though Obama only campaigned a few events of one day in West Virginia this week, he has dumped the most resources into the state, from the Clinton campaign memo:

2:1, 3:1, or 4:1, it doesn't seem to matter what the money Obama poured in has been, in terms of the expected results tonight. But, that is why I commented last month that I thought WV would narrow down to around a 10 point margin in WV. It really is mind-boggling that Clinton, in today's environment, is expected to win over 60 percent of the vote.

Obama's campaign didn't expect it. Their spreadsheet, which had been very accurate, predicted losing by 'only' a 43-55 margin.

BTD on what the night will bring:

I detest the way that traditional media interjects its decision-making into influencing Democratic politics with their boss media mentality. I hated it when they did it against Al Gore in 2000, when they did it against Howard Dean in 2004, and while they are doing it against Hillary Clinton in 2008. I doubt I'm alone in this regard among partisan Democrats either.... which might explain why Clinton is doing so well in the remaining primaries. Clinton is expected to defeat Obama by 30 percent margins in both West Virginia and Kentucky, and according to SUSA polling, Clinton trails Obama by just a 49-48 margin among the 43% that have already voted in Oregon.

Since it looks like Clinton is being predicted to gain over 60 percent of the votes in WV, I thought I'd list which other state primaries have given such high margins:

* Arkansas (70%) Clinton
* Georgia (67%) Obama
* Illinois (65%) Obama
* Virginia (64%) Obama
* Maryland (62%) Obama
* Mississippi (61%) Obama

There's your marker then, whether Clinton can break into the range of these previous blowout contests or not tonight.

I thought that Obama would be able to close the margin in West Virginia, but none of the polls think he will. Obama went along with the outlandish prediction that he'd lose 80-20-- that's one way to tell West Virginians they don't matter. Anyway, I'd better revise my thinking last month that Obama would close the gap.  

I'm predicting:

Obama loses West Virginia to Clinton by a 62- 35 margin.
Obama doesn't win a single West Virginia county.
Obama doesn't visit West Virginia again before the GE.
Obama loses West Virginia to McCain 66 - 33.