Game Changer (With Poll)

There is no way to deny the facts; yesterday in West Virginia was a significant win for Sen. Clinton.   As an Obama supporter up till now I have taken solace in the often reported "leaked" Obama projection spreadsheet. Following this spreadsheet for the last three months has helped keep from letting the highs get to high or the lows too low.  No projections can be expected to be 100% correct but this 2/6/2008 sheet has been amazingly close, until last night.  The Obama camp had originally projected a 43/55 loss and didn't come close. The events yesterday while minimal in impact to the delegate fight were significant at least in timing, a perfect proving ground for Sen. Clinton's recent central argument.

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The important news that happened today

Redacted until I return

Hillary Clinton eyes victory in the west

The Western United States .  The fastest growing region in the country.  The largest number of new immigrants.  Home to Las Vegas, Silicon Valley, Napa Valley, Hollywood and our largest national parks, the source of most of America's fruit, beef and wine and much of our oil, land of dot-coms, ranches and retirement communities - rapidly becoming the most diverse part of America.

Hillary Country.

Hillary has generated excitement in Arizona , Colorado , Nevada , Washington , California and across the West, where she's given thousands of supporters the chance to see her up close. And the endorsements keep rolling in: former Washington Governor Gary Locke, Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, California Assembly Speaker Fabian Nuñez, Colorado House Speaker Andrew Romanoff, California Senator Dianne Feinstein, Oakland Mayor Ron Dellums, former Denver Mayor Wellington Webb, California Controller John Chiang, as well as Arizonan Raul Yzaguirre, former president of the National Council of La Raza, the leading Hispanic advocacy organization in the country.

Nowhere is Hillary's Western strength more evident than in Nevada , where a recent poll shows her breaking 50% in the primary and leading by 37 points.

And her support among local leaders only continues to grow, including: Clark County Commissioner Rory Reid, former Governor Bob Miller, Senate Minority Leader Dina Titus, former Las Vegas Mayor Jan Jones, State Treasurer Kate Marshall, Assembly Majority Leader John Oceguera, Dr. Robert Fowler, Clark County Commissioner Chris Giunchigliani, former Attorney General Frankie Sue Del Papa, Las Vegas Latin Chamber of Commerce Chairman Robert Gomez and Reno-Sparks Indian Colony Chairman Arlan Menendez..

This summer, Hillary has drawn huge crowds across the Silver State , including 3,500 in Reno , more than 3,000 in Las Vegas and even 2,500 in rural Pahrump--where she's opened a regional field office.

The Clinton campaign has brought the Hillary tour to most of the Western states, and has a strong on-the-ground presence with offices, field organizers, and thousands of volunteers spanning the region.

And the West is turning out to be a stronger region for Hillary Clinton than anyone anticipated.

1.      Hillary Is Winning

Democratic Primary

Hillary leads the Democratic primary by more than 20 points in the West, with an overwhelming lead in Arizona , California , Colorado , Nevada , Oregon , and Washington .

Recent Democratic Primary Polls

State     Poll                  Results                    

AZ    ARG Oct 5-9        HRC 41 / Edwards 16 / Obama 14       +25

CA   San Jose Oct 1-8    HRC 42 / Obama 20 / Edwards 14      +22

CO   ARG Sept 15-18      HRC 36 / Obama 20 / Edwards 19       +16

NV    ARG Oct 5-9       HRC 51 / Edwards 14 / Obama 11        +37

OR   Riley Aug 10-15     HRC 26 / Obama 18 / Edwards 17       +8

WA  S Vision Oct 5-7     HRC 48 / Obama 22 / Edwards 10      +26

Hillary leads the Democratic primary by more than 30 points among Latinos, more than 40 points among women, more than 20 points among men, more than thirty points among whites and more than 10 points among African-Americans.  She also wins among urban, suburban and rural voters.

General Election

Hillary is winning the general election in New Mexico , a state which Bush won in 2004, and in California , Oregon and Washington .

Together with Hawaii , this means Hillary Clinton is starting with two-thirds of the electoral votes in the West.

And because of her unique ability to take advantage of changing demographics, Hillary can also turn Colorado , Arizona , Nevada and Montana from Red to Blue.  Bill Clinton was the only Democrat since 1968 to win these states, and Hillary Clinton is the only Democrat positioned to win them in 2008.

Hillary has an 8 point lead over Rudy Giuliani nationally in the latest ABC/Washington Post poll, and she leads by more than 40 points among Latinos, 18 points among women, 13 points among moderates and more than 80 points among African-Americans in that poll and other recent polls - all crucial voter blocks in the West and nationally.

General Election

State        Poll                Results            

CA   Surv USA Sept 14-16      HRC 57 / Giuliani 37          +20                                

                                      HRC 60 / Thompson 34   +26      

                                      HRC 63 / Romney 30     +33

NM   Surv USA Sept 14-16       HRC 51 / Giuliani 43         +8

                                      HRC 53 / Thompson 42   +11

                                      HRC 54 / Romney 39     +15

OR Surv USA Sept 14-16          HRC 46 / Giuliani 44          +2  

                                      HRC 49 / Thompson 42   +7

                                      HRC 51 / Romney 38    +13

WA  Survey USA Aug 10-12        HRC 55 / Giuliani 40          +15

                                      HRC 57 / Thompson 38   +19

                                      HRC 57 / Romney 36     +21

2. Why Hillary Is Winning

Changing Demographics

Two key groups help explain why the West is breaking for Hillary: Latinos and women.  They were the swing voter groups whose movement towards Bush gave him victory in 2004 and whose support will be vital to a Democratic victory in 2008.  And Hillary has stronger support among these groups than any other Democratic or Republican candidate.

   * Latinos favor Hillary Clinton by more than 30 points in the Democratic primary and more than 40 points in the general election.
    * Women made up 54 percent of the electorate last time, and they make up an even bigger slice of the Democratic primary - including 59 percent in Arizona , where the last two governors were both women.  Women favor Hillary Clinton by more than 40 points in the Democratic primary and 18 points in the general election.
    * An overwhelming 94 percent of young women say they would turn out to vote for the first woman president because it would be important to them.  And a 10 percent increase in women turning out for Hillary Clinton alone would flip New Mexico , Nevada and Colorado to the Democrats.

These demographic trends are a big part of the reason Democrats recently picked up a US Senate seat in Montana , the Colorado governor's race, House seats in Colorado , Arizona and California and the Oregon state legislature.

Hillary's Message and Lifetime of Achievement on Issues that Matter to Western Voters

Why are Westerners so crazy about Hillary Clinton?  Because on the issues that matter to Western voters - like sensible immigration reform, environmental protection, alternative energy, Yucca Mountain, choice, health insurance for children, reducing the budget deficit and ending the Iraq war - Hillary is the only candidate with the experience and record of accomplishment to get the job done.

And Hillary has been reaching out to women and Latinos more than any other campaign - with a bilingual Website and a Website for Women for Hillary, and extensive national and local outreach to both of these core groups, communicating her historic message of change, leadership and experience.

The old adage says as goes the West so goes the country.  If that's true, it's just another sign that Hillary Clinton is poised to win.

Penn released this memo on Friday in anticipation of Hillary Rodham Clinton's trip to Nevada  called "Ready to Lead in the West" .

For more information about her trip to Nevada :

http://www.hillaryclinton.com/actioncent er/event/view/?id=4035

http://www.hillaryclinton.com/hq/nevada/

She discussed her plans for healthcare in  " A Discussion on Healthcare with Hillary Clinton " at East Las Vegas Community Center

For more information about how the campaign is doing in Nevada.

http://www.hillaryclinton.com/hq/nevada/

http://www.hillaryclinton.com/actioncent er/event/view/?id=4033

Anyone who hasn't read the book by Thomas F. Schaller,          

" Whistling Past Dixie: How Democrats Can Win Without the South "

should read it. He's bottomline forget the south and look west in the general election .

I am for a 50 state strategy in local and state level but not on a presidential level especially not in 08 , anyone who claims he/she can win in the deep south I hope is just using it as a campaign strategy in the primary election but I expect our candidates to use their resources and fund strategically in the general. Its okay if you talk about winning in missisipi , alabama to rile up as long as when you get into the general you use your resources in iowa , missouri , ohio and other western state.

Taylor Marsh has an interesting interview with Thomas F. Schaller, the podcast is up and I recommend it as a pretty good listen.

http://www.taylormarsh.com/taylor_marsh_ live.php 

The Clinton campaign understands that the battle is going to be in the west (i.e. South West and Midwest ) , I hope other campaigns do as well.

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