Primary endgame, VP BBQ

If you love Hillary, you won't love today's Left, Right & Center...but it's a good show, with discussion of Hillary's endgame (I know! don't blame me, I am just the messenger!), McCain's age, health and Veepstakes, Obama's gaffe and lastly, Bob blames Bush for high oil prices. We'd love to hear your comments, tune in to the podcast anytime, the live stream at 2:30 and 7 pm pacific time, or listen later on-demand at KCRW.com. (Oh yeah: in SoCal, we're on air, too! We are a radio station, after all! 89.9 FM and other frequencies.)

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Time to Take Back the White House

I will never forget election night, November 2000.   I was living overseas, hosting a party for a rowdy Democrats Abroad group.  I'll never forget the ecstasy of Al Gore being declared winner of Florida after a nail-biting night of state-by-state returns.  We cheered and jumped around like kids, dialed up relatives in the US, popped the cork...

Well...you know the rest of the story:  chads, lawsuits, Supreme Court briefs, outrage, heartbreak, regret. Mostly, though, the injustice of it all.

The injustice was wrenching.  Our candidate lost the White House over a handful of votes in the swing state of Florida even though he won more votes nationwide.  There you have it.  Reality sunk in and George Bush moved into Al's house on Pennsylvania Avenue.

That 8-year-old memory has been haunting me lately.   Because the Democratic party is poised to re-enact this farce in a case of tragic irony.  If Barack Obama becomes the nominee, it will be because party officials decide to override the popular vote -- the will of the people --  in favor of a slim lead in pledged delegates.

After the last primary on June 3rd, it's likely that Obama will lead Clinton in pledged delegates by approximately 100 out of  some 3200 total. But Clinton will be the popular vote leader, including caucus states and Florida, even excluding Michigan (where Obama removed his name from the ballot and blocked a re-vote). Following Clinton's net gain of 150,000 votes from Tuesday's contests in Oregon and Kentucky -- Clinton now leads Obama in the popular vote by over 55,000, including caucuses, Florida, and Michigan.

The  Philadelphia Inquirer analyzes the situation:

It is this looming prospect which explains the tremendous pressure Obama partisans and the media are putting on Clinton to drop out of the race. They want her gone now because they understand that she has an excellent chance of finishing as the undisputed people's choice.

Would it matter if Clinton were the undisputed (or even disputed) popular-vote winner? That's hard to say. The question is, matter to whom? The superdelegates will determine the nominee and there's no telling what will sway them. They have no objective criteria from which to make their decisions. But if they were to deny the popular-vote champ the nomination, there is a real question of whether Democratic voters would reconcile themselves to the decision. As it is, much of the talk about Democratic defections in November has been overstated.

Partisan voters almost always come home after their candidate loses. The problem arises when a candidate's supporters believe that their guy (or gal) didn't lose. Expect the chorus calling for Clinton's withdrawal to grow louder over the next week, with people insisting that she has no "path to victory."

Clinton's path is both obvious and simple: Win the popular vote and force Barack Obama and his cheerleaders to explain why that doesn't matter.

(emphasis added)

I agree with this analysis, with one strong exception.  "Talk about Democratic defections"has not been "overstated." Party members are in denial about the rapidly expanding coalition of McCain Democrats.  Warning: ignore this phenomenon at the party's peril.

Clinton will emerge from the primary season with a compelling case for the nomination based on a healthy popular vote lead.  For Democrats un-afflicted by amnesia, the winner should be the person who gets the most votes.  And thankfully, unlike November 2000, there are superdelegates who can ensure that this time, the people are not cheated.

And one other thing, which is even more important: not only will Hillary Clinton be the peoples' choice, she will also be the strongest candidate against John McCain in the General Election, as noted by a mounting body of analysis based on surveys showing Clinton trouncing McCain in the Electoral Vote count while Obama trails him. What's most impressive about these trends is that Clinton now out-performs both John McCain and Barack Obama in state-by-state GE polls even though the mainstream media is all but ignoring her and acting as if Obama is already the nominee, and even though Obama is acting that way himself!  Imagine -- just imagine -- how Clinton could expand her lead over McCain if that head-to-head contest were the media's sole focus?  Even though Obama gets all the media bias and attention as his party's "presumptive nominee," he's still behind.  Anyone who doubts Clinton's commanding GE advantage is spell-bound by alternative criteria.

So buckle up superdelegates.  It's time to take this task seriously and do the right thing, not just on behalf of the people, but on behalf of our party.  We can take back the White House if you listen to the voters.  They know exactly what they're doing when they give Hillary Clinton decisive victories in GE battleground zones. If the popular vote winner had won in 2000, what a better world we'd have today.

Note:  popular vote and delegate statistics from Real Clear Politics.



Cross posted at TexasDarlin

TexasDarlin, all rights reserved
Not affiliated with the Hillary Clinton campaign

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For Superdelegates: It's The Voters Math That Counts Most

For Superdelegates:  It's The Voters Math That
Counts Most

According to the U. S. Census Bureau, the
following is a rough break down of the U. S.
population which I'll call the Voters Pool.  

Here is the URL for the link to the Census
Bureau information I am using:  
http://www.census.gov/Press-
Release/www/releases/archives/american_c ommunity
_survey_acs/007748.html

Voters Pool (initial)

13.4 % African-Americans
77   % Whites
9.6  % Everbody Else
100.0 % SUM

I am assuming that "Everybody Else" primarily
includes Hispanics and Asians.  

For purposes of this article, I further
breakdown the Voters Pool with respect to
educational levels of whites since these have
been the most numerous demographic groups in the
Democratic Party primaries.  

Voters Pool (first breakdown)

13.4 % African-Americans
       Whites (77%)
23.1 %..college graduates [30% X 77%]
46.2 %...high sch. grads (not college) [60%X77%]
 7.7 % ...not high graduates [10% X 77%]
 9.6 %  Everbody Else
100.0 % SUM

As far as I know, Democratic primary voting
demographics, such as shown on various TV
networks, have not differentiated between high
school grads (without college) and not high
school graduates.  Therefore, I have added high
school grads (without college) and not high
school graduates together which I call "not
college graduates".  

Voters Pool (second breakdown)

13.4 % African-Americans
       Whites (77%)
23.1 %...college graduates [30% X 77%]
53.9 %...not college grads..[46.2% + 7.7%]
 9.6 %  Everbody Else
100.0 % SUM

For what follows, I know I'm making a number of
simplifications relating to age, gender, the
population distribution in specific states (such
as urban versus rural), and the effect of a
third party candidate, but I'm not a political
scientist or a mathematician.  

Below, first I present five scenarios relating
to Barack Obama versus John McCain in the
general election.  Second, I present five
scenarios relating to Hillary Clinton versus
McCain in the general election.  

For each scenario, the final SUM number
indicates the percentage of the voters who are
projected for Obama or Clinton, respectively.
Of course, if the SUM is less than 50%, the
candidate loses to McCain in the scenario.  On
the other hand, if the SUM is greater than 50%,
the candidate beats McCain in the scenario.  

CONCLUSION from the results below:  
Clinton beats McCain in 5 out of 5 scenarios.  
Obama beats McCain in 2 out of 5 scenarios.  

FIRST, here are five voting scenarios for Barack
Obama in the general election against John
McCain.  The scenarios start off bad and get
better.  Since percentages in the overall
population are used, these scenarios include
Democrats, Republicans, and Independents.  For
all the Barack Obama scenarios, I assume that
Obama receives 95% of the African-American vote.

Scenario No. 1B:  Votes for Barack Obama
12.7 % African-Americans [Assume: 95% X 13.4%]
       Whites (77% = 23.1% + 53.9%)
12.7 %..college graduates [Assume 55% X 23.1%]
16,2 %..not college grads. [Assume: 30%X53.9%]
4.3 %  Everbody Else {Assume: 45%X9.6%}
45.9 % SUM (1B)

Scenario No. 2B:  Votes for Barack Obama
12.7 % African-Americans [Assume: 95% X 13.4%]
       Whites (77% = 23.1% + 53.9%)
12.7 %..college graduates [Assume 55% X 23.1%]
18.9 %..not college grads. [Assume: 35%X53.9%]
4.3  %  Everbody Else [Assume: 45%X9.6%]
48.6 % SUM (2B)

Scenario No. 3B:  Votes for Barack Obama
12.7 % African-Americans [Assume: 95% X 13.4%]
       Whites (77% = 23.1% + 53.9%)
13.9 %..college graduates [Assume 60% X 23.1%]
18.9 %..not college grads. [Assume: 35%X53.9%]
4.3  %  Everbody Else [Assume: 45%X9.6%]
49.8 % SUM (3B)

Scenario No. 4B:  Votes for Barack Obama
12.7 % African-Americans [Assume: 95% X 13.4%]
       Whites (77% = 23.1% + 53.9%)
13.9 %..college graduates [Assume 60% X 23.1%]
18.9 %..not college grads. [Assume: 35%X53.9%]
4.8  %  Everbody Else [Assume: 50%X9.6%]
50.3 % SUM (4B)

Scenario No. 5B:  Votes for Barack Obama
12.7 % African-Americans [Assume: 95% X 13.4%]
       Whites (77% = 23.1% + 53.9%)
15.0 %..college graduates [Assume 65% X 23.1%]
21.6 %..not college grads. [Assume: 40%X53.9%]
4.8  %  Everbody Else [Assume: 50%X9.6%]
54.1 % SUM (5B)

SECOND, here are some voting scenarios for
Hillary Clinton in the general election against
John McCain.  These scenarios start off bad and
get better.  Since percentages in the overall
population are used, they include Democrats,
Republicans, and Independents.  For all Hillary
Clinton scenarios, I assume that Clinton
receives 33% of the African-American vote.  

Scenario No. 1H:  Votes for Hillary Clinton
4.4 % African-Americans [Assume: 33% X 13.4%]
       Whites (77% = 23.1% + 53.9%)
11.6 %..college graduates [Assume 50% X 23.1%]
29.6 %..not college grads. [Assume: 55%X53.9%]
4.8  %  Everbody Else [Assume: 50%X9.6%]
50.4 % SUM (1H)

Scenario No. 2H:  Votes for Hillary Clinton
4.4 % African-Americans [Assume: 33% X 13.4%]
       Whites (77% = 23.1% + 53.9%)
12.7 %..college graduates [Assume 55% X 23.1%]
29.6 %..not college grads. [Assume: 55%X53.9%]
4.8  %  Everbody Else [Assume: 50%X9.6%]
51.5 % SUM (2H)

Scenario No. 3H:  Votes for Hillary Clinton
4.4 % African-Americans [Assume: 33% X 13.4%]
       Whites (77% = 23.1% + 53.9%)
12.7 %..college graduates [Assume 55% X 23.1%]
29.6 %..not college grads. [Assume: 55%X53.9%]
5.3  %  Everbody Else [Assume: 55%X9.6%]
52.0 % SUM (3H)

Scenario No. 4H:  Votes for Hillary Clinton
4.4 % African-Americans [Assume: 33% X 13.4%]
       Whites (77% = 23.1% + 53.9%)
12.7 %..college graduates [Assume 55% X 23.1%]
32.3 %..not college grads. [Assume: 60%X53.9%]
4.8  %  Everbody Else [Assume: 50%X9.6%]
54.2 % SUM (4H)

Scenario No. 5H:  Votes for Hillary Clinton
4.4 % African-Americans [Assume: 33% X 13.4%]
       Whites (77% = 23.1% + 53.9%)
12.7 %..college graduates [Assume 55% X 23.1%]
32.3 %..not college grads. [Assume: 60%X53.9%]
5.3  %  Everbody Else [Assume: 55%X9.6%]
54.7 % SUM (5H)

CONCLUSION (repeated from above):  
Clinton beats McCain in 5 out of 5 scenarios.  
Obama beats McCain in 2 out of 5 scenarios.

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The Cardoza 40

By now we've all heard about US Rep. Dennis Cardoza switching his superdelegate endorsement from Clinton to Obama.  But did you know that he appears to be the first of 40 Clinton superdelegates that intend to switch to Obama?

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The Cardoza 40: Clinton Delegates to Switch to Obama en masse?

Al Giordano of The Field has proven to be an excellent, plugged-in blogger during this election cycle.  And, as it turns out, he might just have the scoop of the cycle:

The endorsement by US Rep. Dennis Cardoza (D-California) of Obama today sends an extremely firm message to the Clinton campaign, and not only because he was, until today, a Clinton superdelegate.

The Field has learned that Cardoza is the first of a group of at least 40 Clinton delegates, many of them from California, that through talking among themselves came to a joint decision that all of them would vote for Obama at the convention. They have informed Senator Clinton that it's time to unite around Obama, and that they will be coming out, one or two at a time, and announcing their switch between now and the convention if Senator Clinton doesn't do the same.

Cardoza is one of the leaders of this effort (which includes not only superdelegates, but here's something that should set off some paranoia in Camp Clinton: there are pledged Clinton delegates in "The Cardoza 40," too). One Field Hand reports that during a recent Cardoza fundraising event in California the effort was discussed openly in front of other Democrats. Cardoza's announcement, today, sent the message that the effort is serious and for real.

This is not "excellent news for Hillary Clinton."

An exodus of 40 delegates from Clinton to Obama, mathematically, increases his lead by 80 delegates, because she loses one for every one he gains.

You can read the rest here:

http://ruralvotes.com/thefield/?p=1258

We shall see...

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Diaries

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