Why does Puerto Rico have 55 delegates?

One of the oddest mysteries of this primary season is the large number of delegates awarded Puerto Rico. Though other territories have miniscule delegate totals - USVI has 3, American Samoa has 3, and Guam has 4 - Puerto Rico has 55.

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Superdel. Endorses, Says HRC Most Electable [UPDATE x3: 5 more!]

UPDATE 5/1/08 11:08 AM PST: Hillary gets 5 new superdelegate endorsements today, including 4 from New York and Connecticut AFL-CIO President John Olsen. Official statements will be added when available.

UPDATE 4/30/08 12:00 PM PST: Already a second one today (Wed.) for Hillary...see below.

"Pennsylvania Superdelegate, State AFL-CIO President Bill George Backs Hillary."

From Hillary Clinton press release of 4/30/08:

Pennsylvania Superdelegate Bill George announced his support for Hillary Clinton today.

George said Clinton was the best equipped to beat Sen. John McCain in a general election and deliver real solutions to the challenges facing the working families of Pennsylvania and the nation.

"Hillary Clinton has the strength and experience to jumpstart the economy and rebuild the middle class," George said. Working families in Pennsylvania overwhelmingly favored her in last week's primary, and I feel that she is our strongest candidate to carry Pennsylvania in November and win back the White House."

George has been a DNC member since 1996 and is President of the Pennsylvania AFL-CIO.


And this just in.... From The Atlantic:
A few moments ago, at the Universidad del Sagrado Corazon, Luisette Cabanas, an unpledged superdelegate, announced her support for Clinton, giving the campaign the majority of automatic delegates on the island.

"Today I endorse Hillary Clinton for president because of her strong win in Pennsylvania," Cabanas said in a statement. "She has shown a firm conviction and the character needed to lead the nation."Source

This makes 6 (Update: 12)new Super delegates (if I count correctly) added to Hillary Clinton's column since her impressive victory in Pennsylvania last week. Now, if Barack Obama has all the super delegates he needs "in the wings," as his campaign would like you to believe, why would Democratic officials, especially such high-profile ones as Governor Easley of North Carolina, continue to come out in support of Sen. Clinton? And as I wrote in a post yesterday called Brazile for Hillary, senior Party leaders seem to be having second thoughts about the "inevitability" of Obama's nomination.

The tide is indeed turning!

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*Breaking* Clinton Ahead by Double Digits in Puerto Rico

The latest poll conducted today by Research and Research is showing Clinton with a double digit 13% lead in the Puerto Rico Primary scheduled for June 1.
http://www.talkleft.com/story/2008/4/10/ 3556/36298

In addition to Puerto Rico, Clinton continues to maintain her lead in the upcoming primary states of Pennsylvania, Indiana, West Virginia, and Kentucky. Clinton is also closing the gap in North Carolina and Oregon according to polls taken on April 8.

Here are some of the latest figures taken by various polling groups.

In PENNSYLVANIA: According to a Time survey taken April 2-6 Clinton has a 6% point lead, but the poll also states that twenty percent of Pennsylvania Democrats are still undecided, and roughly one in six could change to their candidate before the primary on April 22.http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/04/10/ new-pa-poll-shows-race-tightening-but-cl inton/

Furthermore, Clinton has a history of ballot over-performance compared to polling under-performance.

A FOX News review of the final 10 Ohio polls before the March 4 primary showed Obama closing in on Clinton. In only one of those polls did Obama register as high as 47 percent. The rest had him much closer to his eventual primary day result of 44 percent. Clinton, meanwhile, showed poll numbers at or just below 50 percent. She finished with 54 percent despite rain, flooding and some confusion in key Clinton strongholds in eastern Ohio.

Another poll taken by Survey USA on April 8 is showing Clinton with a 16% point lead. Polling in this state seems to be all over the map, but if you average all of the polls taken between now and mid March, her lead has averaged around 10 to 12% points. Pennsylvania holds it's primary on April 22 or 12 days away. http://www.presidentpolls2008.com/primar y-election-poll-results/pennsylvania-dem ocratic-republican-polls.html

In INDIANA: Clinton continues to lead by 9% in a poll conducted on April 8 by Survey USA. http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo rtEmail.aspx?g=35417ff6-4985-47ce-8e1b-3 fbe566d108d

Another Poll conducted on April 3 by American Research also shows Clinton up by 9%. Indiana holds it's primary on May 6, or 26 days away.

In NORTH CAROLINA: Clinton has closed the gap between herself and Obama according to a poll taken by Survey USA on April 8. Obama leads by 10% points. http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo rtEmail.aspx?g=74905ad1-a0ca-4dc3-a26e-5 b2d63c96cdb
N.C. holds their primary on May 6.

In WEST VIRGINIA: Clinton maintains a commanding 28% point lead. This is one state in which Obama has absolutely no chance of winning and is taylor made for Clinton. She will carry this state my large margins. W.V. holds it's primary on May 13.
http://www.presidentpolls2008.com/primar y-election-poll-results/west-virginia-de mocratic-republican-polls.html

In KENTUCKY: Clinton holds a commanding 29% point lead since March 31. Kentucky holds their primary on May 20.
http://www.presidentpolls2008.com/primar y-election-poll-results/kentucky-democra tic-republican-polls.html

In OREGON: Clinton is apparently closing the gap in this state according to a recent poll taken on April 8 by Survey USA. Obama leads by only 10%. It is important to remember that Oregon votes only by mail-in ballot. This process could actually favor Clinton in that she has done well with mail-in votes in the past. There are some media pundits reporting that Oregon could become a very close contest leading up to their primary on May 20th.
http://www.presidentpolls2008.com/primar y-election-poll-results/oregon-democrati c-republican-polls.html

The other remaining contests, S.D. and Montana have yet to report any polling data. Their primaries are both scheduled for June 3

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Baseline Puerto Rico Poll Puts Clinton Up 13 Points

Puerto Rico is the last large primary ahead of the Democratic National Convention, and we now finally have some numbers on the race in the state commonwealth (whoops!). The survey, commissioned by El Nuevo Dia from pollster Research & Research, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points (though I can't quite figure out if the sample is of adults, registered voters or likely voters).

Hillary Clinton: 50 percent
Barack Obama: 37 percent

Although Puerto Rico is late in the process, and the race won't even necessarily still be going on by early June (though I have a hunch that it will), given that 55 pledged delegates will be up for grabs in its primary, the largest amount of any of the contests to be held in June, it could play an outsized role in setting expectations and momentum in the early summer -- a key period in which superdelegates should finally be making their decisions leading into the convention. As such, this will definitely be a race to keep an eye on.

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New Puerto Rico poll--Hillary leads by 13

http://www.talkleft.com/story/2008/4/10/ 3556/36298

A new Puerto Rico poll has Hillary Clinton 13 points ahead of Barack Obama. The news article is in Spanish, but from my (admittedly not fluent) translation skills, it says:

The poll was done by Research & Reasearch.

Those polled identified themselves as Democrats. They endorsed Hillary by 50% and Obama by 37%. 13% were undecided.

Interesting. I was hoping for a larger margin, but it is what it is and we'll start from there. Then again, I don't know how trusted polling methods are in Puerto Rico, given the fact that we've never been there before and it's completely different from anything we've seen up there. I wouldn't be surprised with any result in terms of what comes out of PR, including an Obama lead.

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