BlogPac Netroots Survey, Part Two

Part One

In the first release of the netroots survey I focused on how the survey was conducted, what the netroots thought of the Democratic Party in general, and what the netroots thought of twenty-four different Democratic elected officials. This portion of the survey will focus on what strategic advice the netroots has for the Democratic Party and the progressive movement, as well as what the netroots thinks on certain key issues.

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Netroots Survey Results, Part One

Cross Psoted on Dailykos, where it could use a rec or two

This is the survey you paid for--the first survey conducted under BlogPac's new management. The results were already released at Yearly Kos, and parts of them have appeared in multiple news outlets. Also, back on Monday, I gave you a preview of the results of the netroots survey, showing that within the netroots, there is a direct correlation between frequency of political, progressive blog readership and favorable / unfavorable ratings of Hillary Clinton. Today, I would like to give you the rest of the results of the poll, broken up into two different posts. The first post can be found in the extended entry.

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Lieberman Under 50%

From Political Wire:Want to know why supporters of Sen. Joe Lieberman are planning an independent bid? A news Rasmussen Reports poll shows Lieberman leading primary challenger Ned Lamont (D) by just six percentage points, 46% to 40%.

There are some issues with the poll, such as a small sample size (218) and large margin of error (7%), but the results are a clear sign that Lamont is gaining traction. Lamont is not over the hump yet, but clearly the evidence is mounting that this is a winnable campaign.

Hillary Clinton and the Netroots Survey

Cross posted on Dailykos

This is the first release form the BlogPac netroots survey that you raised money for last week. The graph shows Hillary Clinton's favorable ratings according to frequency of blog readership among progressive netroots activists and compared to a recent Hotline poll of all Democrats:

This is what is known as a direct statistical correlation. The more frequently a netroots activist readers blogs, the less likely s/he is to have a favorable opinion of Hillary Clinton. While netroots activists who never read blogs have an opinion of Hillary Clinton roughly comparable to all Democrats, netroots activists who regularly read political blogs actually have an overall negative opinion of Hillary Clinton, at 45% favorable and 54% unfavorable.

Given these rather remarkable numbers, the $640,000,000 question is whether or not blog readers really are the influential, cutting edge of Democratic public opinion, or whether we are an isolated group that has little overall impact on the sentiment of the Democratic rank and file. Considering results from the recent Iowa poll, the recent Connecticut poll, and the Montana Senatorial primary (among other things), I am strongly inclined to believe that the opinions held by progressive, political blog readers eventually come to be shared by a wide percentage of the Democratic rank and file. If that is the case, given these results, the question is not whether or not Hillary Clinton is the heavy favorite for the Democratic nomination in 2008, but whether or not she will have any serious impact on the primary season at all.

With just under 2,000 email responses from members of MoveOn,org, the margin of error on the total sample of this poll is only 2.2%. Obviously the margin of error on the sub groups is higher than that. If you find this information useful and interesting, please become a BlogPac supporter.

Edwards Leads in First Iowa Poll

Nothing is certain in 2008:A new Iowa Poll conducted for The Des Moines Register shows that Edwards, the runner-up in the Iowa Democratic caucuses two years ago and a frequent visitor to the state since then, is the choice of 30 percent of Iowans who say they are likely to take part in the January 2008 caucuses.

U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York follows on Edwards' heels with 26 percent in the Iowa Poll.

Experts say it's the first poll showing anyone besides Clinton as the preferred Democrat in the race for the White House.

U.S. Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, who used his victory in the 2004 caucuses as a springboard to the Democratic presidential nomination that year, is a distant third in the Iowa Poll with 12 percent.

Vilsack, despite getting good marks in previous polls for the job he's done in two terms as governor, receives relatively tepid support from his home state in the Register's new presidential poll, taken May 29 to June 1. Ten percent of likely caucus participants say that if the caucuses were held today, they would vote for him.

Five other potential Democratic presidential candidates listed in the poll bring up the rear with no more than 3 percent each.

The poll has a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points. Polls like this, and the earlier one on the Senate race in Connecticut, are just the tip of the iceberg. We saw it in Montana, and we saw it building in places like IL-06. From now on, Democratic primaries are not going to be determined only by the typical strategy of raising early money or early buzz from a finite pool of donors / media and using that edge to knock other candidates out. With a newly energized, people-powered progressive movement, increasingly the key to success in Democratic primaries is going to be be determined by which candidate or candidates can inspire that movement and release its potential energy and resources. Edwards is one of the few candidates right now who I see with the potential to do just that. If other candidates instead decide that this new movement does not matter and focus on building an organization designed to procure the largest share of what they perceive to be a fixed pool of Democratic resources, not only will they not win the nomination, they may not even be significant players in the nomination battle.


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