Towards a Strategic View of the Primaries?

For now in the race for 2008 the focus is squarely on the early primary states, especially Iowa. This is not unnatural, since there's much more in the way of polling data for the earlier primaries and caucuses and they proved so decisive in 2004.

Nevertheless, none of the top three are likely to have dropped out by February 5th and it's entirely possible that some of the lower tier candidates could still be competing, especially if they do better than expected.

With this in mind, it's worth taking a look at the primary calendar and the delegates each state hands out so as to see whether there are any particular strategies that might prove useful to complete a victory or recover from a defeat in an earlier state.

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A new kind of event for a new kind of candidate!

Primary candidates typically spend lots of time in Iowa and New Hampshire. They typically hold fund raisers for $1000 per person.
And they typically limit them to swank private affairs at high end locations.

Sen Barack Obama is not your typical candidate.

Sen. Obama kicks off his campaign in Pennsylvania in Philadelphia THIS TUESDAY, May 22.  

Tickets range from $25 for students with ID, to $50 general admission, and VIP tickets top out at $100.

And the event will be at the Electric Factory, 421 N. 7th Street, and include Philadelphia DJ King Brit.

Doors open at 4:00 pm. Early arrival is strongly suggested and a photo ID is required.

Join us for this great event and be the first of your friends to see Sen. Obama in person!

This event will SELL OUT! Tickets must be purchased in advance online at

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"We must reject war as an instrument of policy"

Hey Everyone!!  

Democracy for America is at it again. Rep. Dennis Kucinich has stepped up to the plate with a double hitter by responding to the DFA Primary Petitions on Global Warming and Iraq. And the Congressman lets it rip.

Check them out back to back at this link: ich

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Florida's Sneak Attack Proves Folly of an Early California Primary

I wrote this for today's Beyond Chron.  I'm sure many folks here will disagree.

Several months ago, I opposed moving California's Presidential primary to February 5th because (a) there's no guarantee it will give us major influence in picking the next President, (b) it will front-load the primary schedule so that lesser-funded candidates have no chance in hell, and (c) California would be a "magnet" for other states to have an early primary - creating a primary season that starts early and ends early.  Now Florida has snuck ahead by pushing its primary to January 29th, despite sanctions from both national parties that the Sunshine State will get fewer delegates at the national conventions.  South Carolina is furious because Florida has jinxed its game, and now New Hampshire plans to exercise its God-given right of "always being first" by pushing its primary back to December - almost a year before the general election.  While it's easy to get mad at Florida for crashing the party (and who doesn't hate Florida when it comes to Presidential elections?), California and 24 other states have no one to blame but themselves for this fiasco when they pushed up their primaries to February 5th.

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I think a President should... ask Americans to be patriotic about something other than war"

Thousands of Democracy for America members (including many of you) signed the DFA Primary Petition demanding action on global warming in April. The goal is to keep the pressure up on the Democratic candidates for President.  We're demanding they stay true to progressive principles and articulate a clear vision on the most important issues of our time.

The first petition back in February demanded action on Iraq and the response from the Presidential candidates was illuminating.  Senator John Edwards responded first and made his position clear. Senator Barack Obama and Governor Bill Richardson responded back to back with solid specifics. And just today, Representative Dennis Kucinich sent DFA his Iraq response (preview it now before we make it officially public) and he doesn't hold back.  Interestingly, DFA has not yet heard from the other candidates.

Now the responses to the DFA Global Warming petition have started rolling in...  

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