Election Scorecard & Prediction Contest

(Originally posted 10/7/06, reposted as Election Day draws nigh)

Well now that we're 12 days out from election day, I've put together an election scorecard of the 36 Governors races, all 33 Senate races, and 90 of the most likely House races.  

I've aleady been using a printout to note polling results, etc.

Aside from a tracking device, I've decided to use it as an elections predictions contest, probably the biggest and most comprehensive out there.  In addition to posting it on MyDD, I'll be posting it in a couple of other venues.  More below the fold.

There's more...

A MyDD Prediction Pool

Come join the newly created prediction pool for MyDD community members!

When you click here, you'll be prompted to sign in or sign up.  Once you have, you can predict the outcome of the upcoming midterms and compare your predictions with other members of the Kos community.  We'll quickly approve all who request to join the group.

If you'd like to create a group of your own, Kos members or work friends or readers of your blog, you can do that, too.

On November 8th, Predict06 will recognize the pools and individuals whose predictions are the closest to the actual results.  Considering how much information you gather here, a MyDD pool should be very competitive.

Want to find out more about what Predict06 is?  Check out this piece from the Personal Democracy Forum!

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Partisan Line Predictions?

[Cross-posted from the Predict06 Blog]

We here at Predict06 knew all along that one of the most difficult parts of this project would be balancing people's political loyalties with their abilities as unbiased predictors.  We didn't, however, think that the partisanship of prediction would be this stark.

Allow me to illustrate.  In the first 24 hours after we went live, 102 members predicted half or more of the Senate races.  Most of those 102 predicted all 13 races.

Of those 102, 80 members predicted one party or the other would sweep the competitive Senate races or miss a sweep by just one race.  In other words, 80% of active members made straight partisan predictions.

And it was on both sides.

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Way cool Senate map based on trading data

My colleague Lance Fortnow, a computer scientist at the University of Chicago, has just put up a map that shows the status of the U.S. Senate races based on the current trading prices at Tradesports.com, with a nice feature -- the color of the state on the map is a shade between red and blue (or green for independents) that proportionally reflects the relative prices of the red and blue contracts.  You can find the prices for each state by moving the cursor over it.

The trading community is now very confident of Democratic pickups in MT, OH, PA,  and RI, and are fairly sure Lieberman will hang on it CT.  They favor the GOP in VA and TN, favor the Dems in MD, and consider MO and NJ tossups.

There's more...


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