WV Predictions

I've got mine:

HRC 61
BO 38
Edwards 1

I think Hillary's tremendous poll lead will keep some of her supporters home (She doesn't need me. She's got it wrapped up). and the media narrative will keep some others home ( She doesn't need me, He's got it wrapped up). Obama's enthusiastic but relatively small number of supporters will show up for their candidate... over performing his expected number and giving him a slight bump in the final tally.

Hillary still wins by a wide margin, Obama over performs expectations... nothing changes in the race.

Let's hear yours.

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VOTE! Do you know? NC? IN? BO? HRC? Go on Record!

The scenarios are Stolen from Elrod's Prediction Thread, but I thought it would be fun to put it up as a poll. We can find out how good at predicting results this community is on aggregate. Users who want to go on record individually can use the comments.

Elrod picks:
North Carolina: Obama wins by 8-11 points
Indiana: Clinton wins by 5-8 points

Harold Ford: Obama has to Win Indiana [Updated]

On April 22nd, as Hillary Clinton's win was declared in Pennsylvania, an L.A. Times blog reported on a statement by Harold Ford Jr. to MSNBC:

Harold Ford Jr. -- not so long ago the rising black politician within Democratic ranks -- now heads an arm of the party that seeks to keep its focus on "middle" America and crafting centrist messages: the Democratic Leadership Council. Often vilified by liberal activists, the DLC sees itself as quintessentially practical.

From that perspective, and in the wake of Hillary Clinton's win in the Pennsylvania primary, Ford just set a political bar for the black politician that surpassed him in prominence.

"You have to win Indiana," Ford told Barack Obama (via an interview on MSNBC). And, Ford added, Obama has to "steamroll" Clinton in the other state with a primary two Tuesdays from now, North Carolina.

The Obama camp will not publicly embrace that equation. But for him to truly regain the momentum he captured during his February surge, most party pros will see Ford's formulation as spot-on.

Interestingly, the Obama campaignreleased a spreadsheet back in February (mistakenly, they said) predicting results for all primaries and caucuses.  Many Obama supporters on this and other blogs have since boasted about its accuracy.

Take a look at the spreadsheet...

Today the Clinton campaign sent out a memo to Interested Parties. It reads in part:

MEMO: Why Did the Obama Campaign Predict Victory in Indiana? Does That Prediction Still Stand?

Three months ago the Obama campaign produced a spreadsheet that, with one exception, has accurately predicted the winners in each of the upcoming primaries and caucuses.

Tellingly, that spreadsheet predicted an Obama victory in Indiana by 7 points, as well as an Obama victory in North Carolina.  

Does the Obama campaign still stand by that prediction?  If not, why not, and what has happened?

It is easy to see why the Obama campaign predicted victory in Indiana.  Senator Obama has won each of the primaries in the states that border Illinois Iowa, Wisconsin, and Missouri, and 25% of Hoosiers get their television from Illinois stations a huge advantage for Senator Obama. Indiana s primary is open, and Senator Obama has tended to do better in those contests.

The Obama campaign has also dramatically outspent Senator Clinton in Indiana by more than $2.4 million -- $5.6m - $3.2m and has even gone up on broadcast television in the very expensive Chicago media market.

Despite Senator Obama's advantages and his prediction of victory, we have worked hard in Indiana to do as well as we can and anticipate a close finish.

In North Carolina, Tuesdays other contest, Senator Obama enjoyed a lead of over 20 points in public polls throughout this year and outspent us there on TV by $1.3m -- $4.9 - $3.5.   Senator Clinton has been working hard to narrow that 20 point gap.

The Clinton campaign certainly raises some fair questions, especially in light of Obama's shrinking support among the working class, as reported today by the A.P.:

Barack Obama's problem winning votes from working-class whites is showing no sign of going away, and their impression of him is getting worse.

~snip~

The April poll -- conducted before the Pennsylvania contest -- also showed an overwhelming preference for Clinton over Obama among working-class whites. They favored her over him by 39 percentage points, compared to a 10-point Obama lead among white college graduates. Obama also did worse than Clinton among those less-educated voters when matched up against Republican candidate John McCain.

~snip~

"It's the stuff about his preacher ... and the thing he said about Pennsylvania towns, how they turn to religion," Keith Wolfe, 41, a supermarket food stocker from Parkville, Md., said..."I don't think he'd be a really good leader."

Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton has consolidated her coalition of women, labor households, seniors, Catholics, Jews, blue collar voters, Hispanics, and others -- a winning coalition which has continued to grow stronger since February.  In terms of momentum, Hillary is looking like a champion.

Obama's momentum has been fading since February, and he's been falling short of his own expectations.  Obama's spreadsheet predicted a 5-point loss in Pennsylvania (Clinton won by nearly 10 points) and an 11-point win in Guam (currently he's winning by 6 points.)

Does Obama have revised projections for Indiana and North Carolina?

UPDATED: Obama won Guam by 7 VOTES, a statistical tie, and a re-count has been announced.

Cross posted at texasdarlin.wordpress.com

The author is unaffiliated with the Hillary Clinton campaign.

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Obama Camp's Predictions: Setting the Stage

As the primary contest begins to wind down, I thought it would be good to review, at this point, what the Obama camp's predictions were for the rest of the contest from here on out:

State     Obama     Clinton
NC          53            45
IN          53            46
WV          43            55
KY          42            56
OR          52            47
MT          55            44
SD          57            42
PR          44            55

Now, as we've seen in the past -- especially Ohio and Texas, the camp's been pretty good at predicting not only the vote split but also delegates coming out of the states. Based on this, it seems that Obama's predicting a narrow NC and IN win. Looking at the demos of NC & IN and the voting trends so far, I think he has underestimated his margin in NC & overestimated his margin in IN. Perhaps he's also overestimated in KY & WV; we'll see. OR looks close too.

So while all this talk of Clinton's chances being 'make or break' in NC, it seems that the Obama team was already at that conclusion months ago: An 8% Obama win.

So, I'm going out on a limb: Obama wins NC by 13%.

So what do you all think? What margin will Obama win by, and why? Will the 36-40% African American state Dem. electorate decisively swing this to Obama, or could the large military population -- which Clinton has strongly emphasized in NC -- pull a surprise?

http://www.politicalbase.com/profile/Mar k%20Nickolas/blog/&blogId=1701

Update [2008-4-28 12:23:17 by VAAlex]: My bad, reversed the PR numbers ... they have been fixed.Update [2008-4-28 12:29:59 by VAAlex]:... and the South Dakota numbers have also been fixed. :)

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Expert Predicts Clinton Pa. Win

An election expert today predicted a Hillary win in tomorrow's election, indicating his belief it can be close. Yes, Barack Obama predicted Monday that Democratic presidential rival Hillary Rodham Clinton would get the critical victory she needs in Tuesday's Pennsylvania primary.http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080421/ap_o n_el_pr/democrats

It appears with this that Obama is throwing in the towel in this primary race. No one now is able to predict how this Obama prediction will affect his campaign workers on the ground, although some observers feel it could demoralize them. One Obama supporter was heard to voice great disappointment regarding Obama's prediction: "Why couldn't he just keep it all to himself, we are out there trying to change voters to us, and he is telling them that we are going to lose." Another said: "How in the world could we convince people about change and hope, when Obama says it's hopeless," continuing, "he won't even give us a chance to change their vote."

When Obama was asked if he will now make prediction's in all the remaing races, he sharply said; "Let's talk issues, and stop all this gotcha politics." He continued: "Ok she got me in this race, I admit it," as tears filled his eyes. Someone volunteered that "maybe that would be good for a few votes."

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