Conservatives Nominates Allen

Need proof that public opinion polls about the 2008 race are horribly useless? Well, I'm going to give it to you anyway. In mid-December, data from a Gallup poll was released that indicated a lead for Rudy Giuliani in the race for the 2008 GOP nomination. He wound up with an impressive 30%. In fourth place was Virginia Senator George Allen, who came in with a relatively dismal 7%.

A straw poll was held at this weekend's Conservative Political Action Conference, or CPAC, that showed some very different results. For those of you unfamiliar with CPAC, it's billed (and I'm not arguing) as "the largest gathering of conservatives nationwide," so it's essentially a who's-who of rightist America. The list of speakers and sponsors reads like Jack Abramoff's Rolodex -- Ann Coulter, Dick Cheney, Rick Santorum, Grover Norquist, Sam Brownback, Tom Tancredo, Wayne LaPierre, Oliver North, Ken Mehlman, Phyllis Schlafly, George Will, Michelle Malkin, J.D. Hayworth, John Fund, Tony Blankley, Bill Frist, John Bolton, Bob Novak, and so on and so forth. I would consider a straw poll held at this event to be far more credible than anything Gallup can glean from questioning the general public.

In a straw vote for presidential favorites in 2008, Virginia Sen. George Allen received 22 percent of the vote of conference participants. Arizona Sen. John McCain garnered 20 percent, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani 12 percent and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice 10 percent, according to results from Fabrizio, McLaughlin and Associates. [Newt] Gingrich was at 5 percent.

So what does this tell us? The candidacies of George Pataki, Mitt Romney, and Chuck Hagel are likely dead on arrival. The same could probably be said for Mike Huckabee, though I think he could very well be the sleeper of the '08 GOP race. But most of all, it tells us that conservatives who are 'in the know' are not backing the same candidates as your average Republican voter. This is something we're very familiar with as the netroots straw polls show almost always exactly the opposite results as polling of average Democrats.

It also tells us that George Allen is one to watch as 2008 draws near. This makes it incredibly important that we make ourselves very aware of his record and positions. And since he's up for re-election this year, it's also incredibly important that we go out of our way to support Democratic candidates James Webb or Harris Miller in the Virginia Senate race. Picking off Allen's seat won't be easy, but it is possible, especially in light of the fact that he doesn't seem to be doing his job, too busy running for President to actually worry about representing his constituents.

There's more...

MyDD Poll: Our Approach on Impeachment, Removal

Next on the analysis agenda, we'll see what the Terrorism Threat Index tells us about responses to impeachment questions and right-wing extremism. Before I do that, though, let me today provide my view of the impeachment questions we asked, primarily because it's such a hot topic right now and there's legitimate discussion about how/what to measure concerning it.

Mystery Pollster has started an excellent discussion on the subject and I think many people will be very interested to check out his comments in Part I (link above) and also when he posts Part II. Me included. His primary points as I see them involve the lack of knowledge of Americans about the process of impeachment and the question as to how best to measure their attitudes now on the subject, a hypothetical outcome in the future. Both excellent issues to discuss in order to generate solid information on the issue.

Which is exactly what we did in the design phase of our poll. And I firmly believe the MyDD Poll has set the standard on impeachment because our questions specifically take into account the impeachment process and ask relevant questions Americans can reasonably respond to now. And in the future.

There's more...

PA Zogby Poll

He's not well-known. His name sounds like Pinocchio. He's a teacher. He doesn't have money... All of those things have been said about my candidate for US Senate Chuck Pennacchio. Well, fuck that shit. commissioned Zogby International to poll Pennsylvanians about the issues at stake. The Senate race, Alito, paper ballots, W, the War... The results are in and the analysis has begun.

There's more...

Breaking MyDD News

The poll is finished. Just got the final results ten minutes ago. Sorting the data. Thinking of posts and press releases to write. Amazing stuff. Will begin release tomorrow.

Stay tuned...


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