It's Working! Obama up two in Gallup

Obama has regained the lead in Gallup!

Whatever Obama is doing seems to be working. Or, if denegrating Obama is still en vogue for you, whatever John McCain isn't doing seems to be working.

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SIENA: Obama down from 18 to 5 pt lead in NY

John Kerry won NY in 2004 by 18 points. Al Gore won NY in 2000 by 25 percentage points. NY's 31 electoral votes should be a sure thing.

NY is solidly Democratic, with 5.5 million registered Democrats and 2.9 million registered Republicans. But, as stated in the polling synopsis, "New York's overwhelming Democratic enrollment advantage is not reflected in how voters tell Siena they plan to vote."

Honestly, I'm not trying to be a concern troll. But seriously, what is happening here?!? I live in NYC and I do believe that Obama will carry NY State and its 31 electoral votes. But why is it so close, why is it tightening? There are still 13% undecideds, how does Obama hold them / keep them from swinging McCain? _id=562&id=19322

Siena New York Poll:
With 50 Days Left, New York Is Far From True Blue
Obama's Lead Falls to 5 Points; Down From 18 Points in June
Obama Seen As Stronger Than McCain on 4 of 6 Issues;
Voters See McCain As Better Than Obama on 4 of 6 of Attributes

Seven weeks until Election Day, the race for President has tightened in New York, with Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) leading Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) 46-41 percent among likely voters, according to a new Siena (College) Research Institute poll released today.  Obama's five point lead is down from eight points in August, 13 points in July and 18 points in June, when he led 51-33 percent.  On a series of  six questions concerning current issues in the campaign - economy, Iraq, terrorism, health care, America's position in the world, and education - likely voters believe Obama will do a better job on four.  Conversely, out of six attributes voters often look at in choosing a candidate - compassion, patriotism, experience, intelligence, integrity, and leadership - New York's electorate gives the edge to McCain on four.

"Although New York has long been regarded as a `safe' state for the Democrats in presidential politics, likely voters in the Empire State are currently only giving Senator Obama a five-point cushion," said Steven Greenberg, spokesman for the Siena New York Poll.  "The conventions are over.  The running mates are set.  And as voters begin to focus on the race, New York's overwhelming Democratic enrollment advantage is not reflected in how voters tell Siena they plan to vote."

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Signs it's time to stop panicking 3

Although it was just yesterday that I demonstrated how the Gallup Daily tracking poll pretty much negates the wholly unwarranted panic that all has been lost, the results from today reinforce my assertion that the polling percentages aren't that much different today than when we began the democratic convention, despite a vastly changed nature of the race.

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What The Hell Is Going On?

(cross posted at kickin it with cg)

A new Gallup poll suggests the RNC post-convention bump may now be affecting down ticket congressional races.

Today's released USA Today/Gallup poll posting generic Democratic or Republican candidates, show a Democrats' double-digit ballot lead shrinking to just 48% to 45%, within the 3% margin of error.

That is a dramatic shift from a consistently shown a strong advantage for Democrats throughout most of the year (actually Democrats have led in the Gallup generic ballot measure since early 2004)

More startling is the Republicans' new advantage among likely voters. While the Democrats lead by 3 among registered voters, likely voters say they will vote for a generic Republican candidate over a generic Democrat by a 50-45 margin.  Prior to the DNC convention, this number favoured the Democrats by a 51-42 margin.

A CNN/Opinion Research poll conducted over the same span also showed a 3% gap, 49-46, while other polls from this week have seen the generic ballot narrowing but still clearly favouring Democrats by 7 or 8...

Now while these results come from a September 5-7 survey conducted immediately after the Republican National Convention - what the hell is going on?

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Signs it's time to stop panicking 1

In the first sign that the hysterical panic that set in after the RNC is, in fact, hysterical, John McCain's surge in the Gallup Daily tracking poll has halted. John McCain now leads Barack Obama by 4% (49% to 44%)

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