by InigoMontoya, Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 08:21:58 PM EST
Zogby's final tracking poll is out and he's on crack.
Obama 54.1, McCain 42.7, Other 3.1
No, it's not the results that say Zogby is on crack. It's the wild swing from a just over 4 point lead just 3-4 days ago.
by InigoMontoya, Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 10:25:13 PM EDT
Apparently just posted on the Zogby website. Obama needs these numbers to hold for another week so that Republicans lose all hope of closing the gap. Then the retributions, circular firing squad, and plummeting morale can hurt GOP turnout even more and help some down-ballot races.
But first things first...let's hope that something like these numbers hold.
by AsiansVote, Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 08:17:41 AM EDT
Last week, Markos argued that now's the time to press our advantage and "crush the spirits" of the conservative movement by delivering "a defeat worse than they ever imagined." I humbly suggest that as part of the program, it's time to poll Arizona and prove the theory that McCain's home state only supports him by single digits. It's time to move Arizona from "likely" to "lean," give a leg up to Democratic challenger Bob Lord in AZ-03, and saddle the McCain campaign yet another embarrassment to spin in the waning days of the election.
And, who knows, the results of an Arizona poll might just surprise even us...
Back in August, the Mason-Dixon poll made headlines by showing McCain up only six points in Arizona. But post-RNC, three polls gave McCain double digit leads, with an ASU outlier from 9/25-28/09 giving McCain a seven point edge [Pollster].
But the state hasn't been polled since September 29. And just to refresh, here's a bit of what's happened since then:
by chiefscribe, Mon Oct 13, 2008 at 09:53:48 AM EDT
The more we know about 2004, the more we know how wrong the conventional wisdom was and has been: No, Bush didn't win. No, this wasn't a victory of right-wing so-called "values voters". And no, marriage initiatives did not make a difference in the vote.
Kerry pollster Mark Mellman has found that  anti-gay-marriage ballot initiatives didn't boost voter turnout for either party. Moreover, political scientists at MIT found that Bush's share of the 2004 vote increased in most battleground states, but not the three that had gay marriage bans on the ballot. Stephen Ansolabehere, one of the study's authors, concludes that the gay marriage referenda may have given Kerry a bump. "That suggests there might even be some sort of backlash against this kind of politics," he notes.
Of course, we already knew that civil rights battles should not wait for the mythical time when no elections are on the horizon, and that pro-equality plaintiffs can't be expected to back out of their years-long case because the timing is inconvenient. We already knew that Karl Rove, not people fighting for their civil rights, "pushed the issue" in 2004. Now we know that it didn't even work. This should put an end to any more "those darn impatient gays!" nonsense about 2004.
by FISG, Thu Oct 09, 2008 at 09:37:01 AM EDT
From a friend in Alaska:
PBS is conducting an online poll right now which asks people to vote on whether or not they believe Sarah Palin is qualified to run for Vice President of the US. It seems the Republican machine has flooded the poll w/"yes" votes and we have a urgent need for everyone to hurry and put in a reality check.
Here's the website:
Vote and spread the word!