Rasmussen Poll in the field in California

I got called late in the afternoon with a robocall from Rasmussen

Grabbed a pen and noted the questions, reproduced as accurately as I could below.  Wording may be slightly off, intent is accurate.

Do you Strongly Approve, Somewhat Approve, Somewhat Disapprove, Strongly Disapprove of the job President Obama is doing?

Repeated with Governor Schwarzenegger substituted.

More below the fold.

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PA-Sen: Joe Sestak Flips the Electability Argument (Rasmussen Part Two)

Following its PA-Sen Democratic primary numbers released yesterday showing Congressman Joe Sestak closing the gap on recent Republican Arlen Specter, Rasmussen Reports released general election match-up numbers:

Pat Toomey (R) 48
Arlen Specter (D) 36
Other 4
Not Sure 12
Pat Toomey (R) 43
Joe Sestak (D) 35
Other 5
Not Sure 18

Two obvious takeaways here.  One, Toomey has taken the lead.  Is it discontent over the protracted health care reform debate?  Is it burgeoning discontent with Specter himself harming the Democratic brand in Pennsylvania?  And how temporary will this lead be?  Unclear.

Two, the "electability" argument in the Democratic primary has flipped.  In previous polls, Specter matched up against Toomey better than Congressman Sestak did (no doubt relying largely on Specter's strong name ID).  In this poll, however, Congressman Sestak matches up better.  His deficit against Toomey is only 8 points (and, remember, Congressman Sestak has never run statewide, unlike Toomey, and is still working to build name recognition across the state, which should improve his numbers significantly), while Specter's deficit against Toomey is 12 points.  This is probably due to a plummetting favorable-unfavorable rating for Specter, as Rasmussen points out; Specter's is down to 43-54.

While the numbers against Toomey are nothing to celebrate, this poll further cements the notion that Arlen Specter would not serve Democrats well as the Party's Senate nominee.

By the way, want integrity?  Congressman Sestak went on Fox News to promote that he is "a strong proponent of the public health care plan option." He's not going to pander or sugar coat.  He's going to fight for Democratic values everywhere.  (And you can help Congressman Sestak's fight with a contribution via the Expand the Map! ActBlue page.)

For daily news and updates on the U.S. Senate races around the country, regularly read Senate Guru.

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PA-Sen: Joe Sestak Closes the Gap on Arlen Specter

45, 29, 19, 20, 32.  What are those numbers?  Those numbers are the gaps between recent Republican Arlen Specter and Democratic Congressman Joe Sestak in the five public, independent, non-partisan polls of the 2010 Democratic Senate primary in Pennsylvania from May to July.

13.  What's that number?  It's the gap between Specter and Congressman Sestak in the latest Rasmussen Reports poll.  Specter's lead over Congressman Sestak is only 47-34 according to Rasmussen.  Rasmussen's last poll, in June, showed the 19-point deficit, a 51-32 result.

Rasmussen also reminds us that Specter still remains "much better known" across the state than Congressman Sestak.  In other words, Congressman Sestak still has plenty of room to grow in terms of name ID as his campaign gets underway, but has already cut his deficit by a third.  Also, this is the very first non-Franklin & Marshall poll (F&M's numbers were relatively very low for both candidates) to show Specter under 50%.

Additionally, the Rasmussen poll found the following:

Among voters who favor the congressional health care plan, Specter leads 55% to 26%. However, among those who oppose the plan, Sestak leads 61% to 25%.

Assuming that those who favor health care reform are more liberal Democrats and opponents are more conservative, this would indicate that Congressman Sestak has already made inroads into the moderate-to-conservative Democrats that one would think ought to lean toward Specter.  If Congressman Sestak can hold these Democrats while later making inroads with more liberal Democrats (perhaps by pointing out that Specter was a pretty staunch ally of George W. Bush's), the gap between the two should tighten further still.

This poll is bad news for Specter and great news for Congressman Sestak - not just because it shows Congressman Sestak closing the gap, but also because it adds credibility to his campaign.  Specter winning is not remotely a foregone conclusion.  The more that PA-Dem primary voters recognize that, the more open they'll be to Congressman Sestak's candidacy, and the less power the Ed Rendell machine will have to stop the political dam from breaking.

As polls continue to tighten, Congressman Sestak's fundraising continues to grow, and endorsements for Congressman Sestak's campaign get announced, a critical mass of political will to unseat Specter will be achieved.  You can help that critical mass get reached with a contribution to Congressman Sestak via the Expand the Map! ActBlue page.

For daily news and updates on the U.S. Senate races around the country, regularly read Senate Guru.

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Republicans are going to the loonies - part 583

This latest poll really emphasizes that Republicans are going to the loonies (as if we didn't already know).  Only 42% of Republicans in the DKoss poll think that the President is a U.S. citizen!  And 30% "don't know"!

Their tent gets smaller and smaller every day.  While the breakdowns aren't there in this summary story, since 77% overall think he is (with only 11% dissenting) I guess the opinions of Democrats and Independents must be nearly unanimous.

Republican's inability to kill this nonsense is emblematic of their total disarray.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2009/0 7/31/fewer_than_half_of_republicans_thin k_obama_is_a_citizen.html

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Please answer this opinion poll on single payer universal health care.

Answer this poll on single payer health care: http://www.twiigs.com/poll/Politics/1796 0

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