Progressive Democrat Newsletter Issue 231

This week, because of increased readership, I am expanding my coverage in Georgia and Virginia. Right now NY, CA, TX, VA, GA and NJ are the states where most of my readers live. I consider that quite an interesting mixture.

Last week I ended my introductory statement by saying, "It may not always seem this way, but things have been moving (slowly) in the right direction." This last week adds a great deal of emphasis to my statement. Looked at from afar, what Obama has been doing is amazing. Of course there is the Nobel Peace Prize, which I discuss in this week's newsletter. Whether or not you think Obama has earned it, it is a sincere expression of just how relieved the world is that America has a good President again and of how hopeful the world is that Obama can turn things around. But the Nobel Prize is just the most obvious expression of this. Simply put, almost every nation in the world views America better thanks to Obama. From Reuters:

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Corzine Takes Lead in Second Straight Poll

October poll average: Christie 42.75 - Corzine 42.25 - Daggett 9.5

When non-partisan pollster Fairleigh Dickinson University released a survey out of New Jersey finding that Democratic Governor Jon Corzine had taken a lead over his Republican challenger Chris Christie after nearly nine months of trailing in the race, Christie meekly retorted, "All I can tell you is this: 45 polls, 44 of them we've been ahead. We're still ahead in every other public poll except the FDU poll." What, then, will Christie say about new Democracy Corps (D) polling also showing Corzine in the lead?

Jon Corzine (D): 41 percent
Chris Christie (R): 38 percent
Chris Daggett (I): 14 percent

Much of the movement in this race, apparently, comes as voters sour on Christie.

Christie's standing has declined markedly in the last two weeks, with 42 percent now rating the Republican unfavorably versus just 30 percent who rate him favorably. This net -12 point favorability rating is a 10-point decline from two weeks ago. Corzine is rated favorably by 37 percent of voters and unfavorably by 46 percent, for a net favorability rating of -9 points.

Corzine's lead isn't large, and it's still very possible that he will not be able to pull off the major come from behind victory. That said, considering that not so long ago Christie was leading by 10 points, the fact that now not one but two polls place Corzine in the lead is nothing short of remarkable.

Update [2009-10-8 14:56:28 by Jonathan Singer]:SurveyUSA comes in with Christie up 3:

Jon Corzine (D): 40 percent
Chris Christie (R): 43 percent
Chris Daggett (I): 14 percent

Pollster.com does not appear to have punched either of these two latest surveys into their trend estimate on the race, but if you average the four public polls in the field on the race in October, the numbers look like this:

Jon Corzine (D): 42.25 percent
Chris Christie (R): 42.75 percent
Chris Daggett (I): 9.5 percent

About as tight as they come. What a race.

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A Surge in New Jersey

Earlier today I noted the release of a non-partisan poll out of New Jersey showing the state's incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine leading his Republican challenger, Chris Christie -- the first such finding in nearly nine months. Take a look, now, too, at the Pollster.com trend estimate, with sensitivity turned up to high to catch the latest trend in the race:

Looking at the movement over the past month or so, with Corzine climbing about 6 points in the aggregate, it's pretty clear who has the "big mo."

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And Corzine Takes the Lead

It's not a big lead, or even one outside of the margin of error, but it's a lead. And it's from a reputable non-partisan pollster (.pdf):

According to the most recent poll by Fairleigh Dickinson University's PublicMind, Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine edges Republican challenger Chris Christie 44% to 43% among likely voters in the race for New Jersey governor.  Another 4% volunteer they will vote for independent Chris Daggett and 5% say they are undecided.  "With the start of an advertising blitz and the raw exposure of the debate, the race has tightened to a dead heat," said Peter Woolley, a political scientist and director of the poll.

With Independent Chris Daggett's name included in the poll (rather than being open to be volunteered by respondents), Democrat Jon Corzine holds a similar 1-point lead over Republican Chris Christie, 38 percent to 37 percent, with 17 percent backing Daggett.

The numbers from this poll don't mean that Corzine is now on the inside track to reelection, or that he necessarily has much of a genuine lead. What they do confirm, however, is what he have known now for months: That Corzine has the momentum as Christie continues to sink badly. What's more, as I noted last week, considering that pre-election polling in New Jersey has consistently underestimated support for Democratic candidates -- in the 2002 Senate campaign, in the 2004 presidential campaign, in the 2005 gubernatorial campaign, and in the 2006 Senate campaign -- the fact that Corzine has now caught up with Christie in this polling means that the Democrat has a much greater shot at victory in this race than at virtually any other previous point in this campaign. And even if you gave me some odds, I'm not sure that at this point I'd put any money on Christie to eek out a victory.

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Progressive Democrat Newsletter Issue 230

I am still not in the full swing of things in regards to the newsletter since I am preparing for a conference next week and Jacob's birthday was this last week. I will say that in the NYC runoffs, the candidate I expected to win (John Liu) did win, and the candidate I hoped would win but didn't expect to win (Mark Green) lost. I will have endorsements for November soon. We sure have a lot of ground to cover in NYC elections, don't we?

Despite my lack of time, I am still keeping things fairly up to date here, complete with calenders, news articles, highlights of progressive candidates, etc. in many areas I cover. So keep reading and keep up the activism. It may not always seem this way, but things have been moving (slowly) in the right direction.

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Diaries

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