by Jonathan Singer, Tue Nov 03, 2009 at 07:11:26 PM EST
Fox News calls the race for Democrat Owens
With three-quarters of the vote in up in New York, Democrat Bill Owens continues to lead. Marriage equality hanging in the balance in Maine, now trailing.
New York 23
Bill Owens (D): 58,787 votes (49.0 percent)
Doug Hoffman (C): 54,518 votes (45.4 percent)
With 85 percent of precincts reporting as of 11:45 PM Eastern
Maine Marriage Equality (vote to overturn)
No: 227,251(47.61 percent)
Yes: 250,108 (52.39 percent)
With 83 percent of precincts reporting as of 12:30 AM Eastern
More as we hear it, and more over at Twitter @jonathanhsinger...
Update [2009-11-4 0:34:40 by Charles Lemos]: I have ceased to update the NY-23 results now that Hoffman has conceded. I am still updating the Maine Marriage Equality results.
by Jonathan Singer, Mon Nov 02, 2009 at 08:38:16 AM EST
SurveyUSA is out with its own final poll out of the New Jersey Governor's race, and as was the case with the polls from Quinnipiac and Public Policy Polling, it found that Republican Chris Christie leads Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine by a narrow margin (45 percent to 42 percent, to be specific). But perhaps the more interesting number is this: Among those voters who had already cast their ballots, Corzine leads by a healthy margin.
Among those who already voted
Jon Corzine (D): 50 percent
Chris Christie (R): 38 percent
Chris Daggett (I): 9 percent
These numbers largely track with SurveyUSA polling from last week also showing Corzine leading among early voters, though by a narrower 45 percent to 37 percent margin.
It's worth noting that the margin of error for this subsample is very high -- likely in excess of 8 percentage points, doing some back of the napkin math. But the fact that these numbers have been by and large consistent, showing that the Democrats' superior early voting machine is working at turning out its voters to a greater extent than the much weaker GOP effort, should lead some to wonder just how durable Christie's projected overall lead actually is.
Update [2009-11-2 14:7:29 by Jonathan Singer]: A new poll from Monmouth (.pdf) finds just about the same thing:
The poll also finds that about 6% of New Jersey voters have already cast their ballot by mail, similar to the percentage of mail ballots received in last years presidential race. For these ballots, Jon Corzine looks to have the decided advantage. A majority of 53% of mail voters say they voted for the incumbent, compared to just 31% for Christie, 11% for Daggett and 5% for other candidates.
Not only is Corzine performing strongly in absolute terms, leading Christie in the early vote by a double-digit margin in two separate surveys, but he is also turning out a similar proportion of early voters as Barack Obama was able to last year. If that doesn't speak to the continuing strength of the Democrats' GOTV apparatus in New Jersey, I'm not sure what does.
by Jonathan Singer, Mon Nov 02, 2009 at 07:16:31 AM EST
Just out this morning:
In the see-saw New Jersey Governor's race, Republican challenger Christopher Christie has 42 percent to Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine's 40 points, with 12 percent for independent candidate Christopher Daggett, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Six percent remain undecided.
This compares to a 43 - 38 percent Gov. Corzine lead, with 13 percent for Daggett, in an October 28 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.
Separately, Public Policy Polling (.pdf) also shows Republican Chris Christie leading Democrat Jon Corzine, 47 percent to 41 percent, a net one-point increase in Christie's lead from the previous week.
One more poll bears mentioning, too:
President George W. Bush has closed a four-point gap with Democratic challenger John Kerry and the two candidates are locked in a 46 - 46 percent tie among New Jersey likely voters, with 2 percent for independent candidate Ralph Nader, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Six percent remain undecided.
Come election day, that supposed tie ended up in a nearly 7-point win for John Kerry in the Garden State -- a clear reminder that surveys in the state have a known tendency to underestimate Democratic strength. And with the polling indicating that Corzine has been banking more early votes than Christie, I'm not entirely certain I'm ready to buy that he is trailing by five or even two points a day before election day.
Update [2009-11-2 12:47:39 by Jonathan Singer]:Democracy Corps (D) chimes in, showing Corzine leading 41 percent to 37 percent.
by JoeTrippi, Sat Oct 31, 2009 at 11:21:48 AM EDT
Bumped from the diaries -- Jonathan
In yesterday's Wall Street Journal Karl Rove presented a thoughtful opinion piece on how to read the results of elections to be held Tuesday in Virginia, New Jersey, New York and Pennsylvania. Regardless of Rove's projected outcomes in these elections, he makes the mistake of seeing the results, as most of Washington will see them, through the lens of partisanship, and he measures the outcome, only as Washington has come to measure all outcomes, in terms of partisan advantage .
According to Rove, "Voters have lived under Democratic rule for nine months, and many of them, especially independents, don't like what they are seeing. Tuesday's election will provide the most tangible evidence of how strong a backlash is building - and just how frightened centrist Democrats should be of 2010. For Republicans, it looks as if hope and change are on the way."
I have a different view of what Tuesday's results may tell us and not because I am a Democrat.
by mole333, Sat Oct 31, 2009 at 07:49:40 AM EDT
November 3rd is election day. PLEASE VOTE!!!! I highlight candidates in several states like Minnesota, Washington State, NYC, and Pennsylvania. I also highlight the elections in Texas, Virginia and New Jersey. Voter turn out will be low so PLEASE read up on these elections, make your choices and vote. I should note that many more places have elections than I have been able to cover, so even if I am not covering your local elections, please vote.
For other states I continue highlighting the same facts and figures on healthcare reform that I have for weeks. I want to keep these handy for everyone until we have a bill passed. Keep up the pressure!