On Prioritizing the Popular Vote

Hello All,

Thanks for the recs yesterday.

There are a few outside factors involved in this controversy over the popular vote.

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NFL overturns Super Bowl XXXIX & XL results!

You may have heard the news this week that PA Senator Arlen Specter is considering an inquiry into the New England Patriots 'Spy-Gate' controversy. That NFL story will heading to the back pages after today's big announcement that the results of Super Bowl XXXIX and Super Bowl XL will be reversed.

These Super Bowls were held in Michigan and Florida, and NFL officials were inundated with calls of yard disenfranchisement. The Philadelphia Eagles and Seattle Seahawks can now claim victory in those Super Bowls, since it was determined that gaining more yards was a better metric in determining victory.

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112 to 0 : Obama vs. Clinton : Days leading in the Democratic Primary.

Obama has lead from day one of the Primary and leads today: Obama 112+ days , Hillary 0 days.

Obama's stable and uninterrupted lead:

1) Obama has lead in delegates for all 112 or more days of the primary, Clinton has lead for  0 days.

2) Voters have ratified Obama's as the Nominee of the Democratic Party by increasing his lead on more than 80% of the voting days of the 2008 primary. On the 16 days there were contests Obama has won more delegates on 14 days, Hillary has won on 2 days, the second was Pennsylvania.

3) Obama has held a consistent and modest 3-9 point lead in polls through out the primary. Gallup, Rasmussen, averages  and the voting results all agree.

4) Obama is closing the deal as planned in his campaign's 50 state strategy. The voters have not been indecisive but are continuing the support they provided Obama on day one of the primary season. The Democratic Primary Race does not reflect an electorate with "buyers remorse": Obama has a consistent modest majority but lacks that majority with less educated and older voters, these demographic variations manifest as wins for the trailing candidate in states like Pennsylvania. Demographic difference in a given state do not indicate a shift in voter sentiment. This consistent modest lead is born out by the national tracking polls.

Obama's lead is modest but has exhibited  no evidence of the polar swings that are reported.

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Metrics and Memes - How the Youth Narrative Changed

In response to the post I wrote a few weeks ago about the changing narrative around young voters, I received a call from Ivan Frishberg, who sits on the board of Young Voter PAC and the advisory board of CIRCLE.  Ivan wrote to me to both confirm and elaborate on my thesis: that the media narrative surrounding young voters has changed and is reaching a potential tipping point this November.  In our conversation, he painted an enlightening picture as to how and why the media misreported youth turnout in 2004, and why that narrative is finally changing.

In Ivan's recounting of the 2004 election, it begins with a strategic plan executed by a coalition that included the New Voters Project and the Youth Vote Coalition. This plan had two goals:
 

  1. Get campaigns to realize the importance of young voters and, consequently, spend a more proportionate share of their campaign warchest to reach young voters; and

  2. Improve media coverage of young voters.

The cornerstone of this strategy was the accumulation of reliable data about field work aimed at young voters.  Metrics.

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Who's Really Using Social Networks?

Cross-posted at Future Majority

By now there is a standard story about social networks and politics.  It goes something like "Young people congregate on MySpace and other social networks.  If politicians want to tap the power of the youth vote that emerged in '04, they need a presence on these networks.  This is starting to happen, and FaceBook and MySpace administrators are actively facilitating it."

But who really is on social networks?  A new study suggests that social networking isn't just for young people.  In fact, it's mostly for folks over 34.

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Diaries

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