The Final Insult

I almost pity poor John McCain.  Almost.  How did he end up with this 'crap job'?  It has fallen upon him to fight the last battle of slaveholders and plantation owners.  I expect this bile from Rush Limbaugh, Newt Gingrich, Dick Cheney and any of the rest that fall into the 'angry white patriarch' model that is interchangeable with KKK grand wizard or plantation owner.

The thinly veiled race baiting of the GOP that has been in force since Richard Nixon's 'Southern strategy' is no longer thinly veiled at all.  For a generation, the GOP was able to reliably manipulate themselves into power by scaring white voters about the danger to them from 'the other'.  They have expanded the cast of dangerous people to include gays, Latinos, (always) women and Muslims.

(Cross posted at The National Gadfly

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Yet Another Election Prediction Contest

Here's yet another election prediction contest covering all 50 states, 11 Governor's races, 35 Senate races, and 109 House races.

Instructions:

Presidential: for each state, indicate the winner, Obama or McCain.

Governors, Senate, House: delete the line of who you think will be the loser.

Tie-breaker: Indicate what you think Obama's winning (or losing) margin will be to the nearest tenth of a percentage point, e.g, +6.3, -1.2, etc.

Complete contest below the fold.

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Obama v. McCain state-by-state fundraising numbers: the map might surprise you!

Over the last week I've been working on Who Contribued?, a site that uses the FEC financial data to track the geographic distribution of campaign contributions and expenditures and display it in a nice map. This includes numbers from the primaries, too.

The first thing that jumped out is how truly dominating Obama is when it comes to state-by-state contributions, but there's more interesting facts and trends I'll share below.

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Gallup Just Exploded

Wow, wonder if Drudge the Fedora will be front paging this one with 42pt fonts and flashing lights.

As of today, all 3 models show decisive leads for Obama.

Of course as we all know, State polls are what really matters right now, but the National trackers are great for surveying trends, and the trends look very good heading into the final weekend.

Here's Gallup's numbers for 10-31-08

The Registered Voter model shows it as: Obama 52%, McSame 41%. That's a gain of 2 points for Obama and a loss of one for McWalking Cane.

The "Traditional" (based on 2004 turnout) Voter model shows it as: Obama 51%, McShame 43%. gain of one point for Barry, loss of two points for Gramps.

The "Expanded" (based on estimations of higher turnout this year) Voter model shows it as: Obama 52%, McFailin 43%. Gain of one point of That One, loss of one point McKitchenSink.

UPDATE: Here's a snippet from the Write-up:
Thursday night's interviews are the first conducted entirely after Obama's widely viewed 30-minute prime-time campaign ad, which ran on several television networks Wednesday evening. Obama held a substantial lead over McCain in last night's polling, however no greater than what Gallup found on Wednesday.

Obama's lead among expanded likely voters is only slightly greater than that seen among traditional likely voters. He now leads McCain by nine-points, 52% to 43%, using this looser definition that does not factor in whether respondents have voted in past elections, but strictly relies on their reported level of interest and intention to vote in the 2008 election.

Again, it cannot be stressed enough that we must continue fighting for this election! But it's good to see the tightening we saw earlier in the week reverse itself, either way.

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10/31 Zogby: Obama 50.1, McCain 43.1

Statistical noise.  

Obama drops .1 from yesterday, McCain drops .2 from yesterday.

I'm cautious in my own take on turnout models and I expect McCain to close from 1.5 to 2.5 points on election day between some Republicans coming home and the undecideds breaking slightly against Obama.

Otoh, if the Obama turnout machine is really effective and the newly registerd voters turn out in high proportion, it'll be a rout.

And that's where it stands right now:  somewhere between a victory and a rout.

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Diaries

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