McCain vs. Allen vs. Webb vs. Miller

Virginia has always been proud of its role as the "Mother of Presidents." I believe VA and Ohio still have the most Presidents to hail from a single state.  Too bad the last decent president from VA was Wilson, almost 100 years ago and his Presidency was ultimately a failure.

Of course, in 2006 there is a Senate race.  Still...

Sen. George Allen is running for President against John McCain and others...

Navy Secretary, author and war hero Jim Webb is running against Sen. George Allen...

Lobbyist Harris Miller is running against Jim Webb.

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SUSA USA: Progressive Independents Leaving Lieberman?

So I read Chris's piece on the Survey USA polling data.  I'd like to highlight a few weird and interesting pieces regarding Lieberman.  I noted last month that Lieberman's numbers were not cracking.  That trend changed in April, he's now sinking in response to Lamont's candidacy and the negative press coverage.  What is very interesting is that he's taken a hit among Democrats, with a drop of two in approvals and a rise in six of disapprovals, but that's not where most of the damage has been done.  Among independents, Joe's has just been crunched, with a ten point drop in approval rating and a twelve point rise in disapprovals.  That's a net approve/disapprove change of eight points among Democrats, and twenty two points among Independents.  Wow.

The second important nugget to draw out is that liberals have crossed the threshold against Lieberman.  Last month, approval among liberals for Lieberman was forty nine, and disapproval was forty one.  Now forty nine percent of liberals disapprove of Joe, and forty six approve.  And yes, liberals are the ones who vote in the primary.

I think Joe's going to jump.  The problem for Joe is that the independents are running away from his even faster than the Democrats.  That's really interesting, and I could posit a few guesses as to why this is going on.  Jerome has blogged about the 'indycrat' phenomenon, where it turns out independents trend very closely to Democrats.  And Chris has written about how the progressive netroots actually track closer to popular American opinion than the Democratic base.  Now, take this with salt, but that's what I think is going on in Connecticut.  When I registered to vote, I strongly considered registering as an independent.  I felt that the system wasn't something I wanted to be a part of despite my progressive leanings.  Psychologically, the netroots is probably more similar to the apathetic voter and their distrust of 'the system' than perhaps we might think.  I mean, yes, we're politically junkies, and independents aren't, but there is a mutual dislike towards insiders like Joe Lieberman.  That might explain the killer drop among independents.  

Regardless, it's a big problem for Lieberman, because it means that even if he does run as an independent, it's going to be very tough to win.  It looks like his popularity was an inch thick and a mile wide, and it's cracking.

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Giuliani Has No Chance in '08

The next time someone reminds you that former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani is leading in the national polls for the 2008 GOP Presidential Nomination, remind that person that:

1.) national polls are useless since there is no national primary;
2.) Giuliani is pro-choice so he has no chance with the evangelical Christian conservative voters which love to remind us that they are the reason Bush won in 2000 and 2004.

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McCain Breaks His Own Campaign Finance Law

From Itstime's diary at daily kos.

The Union Leader reported today that the NH Republican State Senate Victory PAC is breaking the law and accepting corporate contributions at an event connected with none other then Senator John McCain, a.k.a. Mr. Campaign Finance Reform. Republican State Senate President Ted Gatsas admitted that corporate checks have already been accepted for the event, even though the invitation he sent out clearly states that, "No corporate or labor funds will be accepted." Under McCain-Feingold Campaign Finance reform laws, federal office holders are prohibited from soliciting corporate or labor donations unless it is for a non-profit 501(c)3 organization. This is a clear violation of that law.

More below the fold...

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CONTEST: Re-Name the Straight Talk Express

Watching John McCain kiss up to the GOP far-right and kiss the, uh, ring, of George W. Bush makes me sick.  At the rate McCain is going by 2006 his campaign will be managed by Karl Rove and co-chaired by Pat Robertson & Jerry Falwell.

Let's have a contest to re-name the "Straight Talk Express" that McCain rode in 2000.  What was once straight talk from the Senator from Arizona has become the usual political drivel of conventional politics and party above country posturing.  I'll send a special prize (OK, I'll clean something out of my closet) to the person who suggests the best name for McCain's new vehicle that he hopes to ride to the White House in 2008.  And yes, I'll be the judge.  If you don't want to post your idea here send it directly to hpark@trellon.com  I'll report on the best names sometime the week after next.

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Diaries

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