Election Scorecard & Prediction Contest

(Originally posted 10/7/06, reposted as Election Day draws nigh)

Well now that we're 12 days out from election day, I've put together an election scorecard of the 36 Governors races, all 33 Senate races, and 90 of the most likely House races.  

I've aleady been using a printout to note polling results, etc.

Aside from a tracking device, I've decided to use it as an elections predictions contest, probably the biggest and most comprehensive out there.  In addition to posting it on MyDD, I'll be posting it in a couple of other venues.  More below the fold.

There's more...

NV-GOV: Gibbons' accuser to defend herself in press conference

This is just the break Dina Titus needed. I've been anticipating it ever since Jim Gibbons' wonderfully stuffy officer and a gentleman presser last Thursday. A blurb today in the Las Vegas Review Journal says lawyers for Chrissy Mazzeo indicate she will hold a press conference Wednesday to defend herself.

http://www.reviewjournal.com/...

If Mazzeo comes across as sincere, specific and credible there is potential for huge ongoing coverage and further scrutiny of Gibbon's version of what happened on October 13. Titus was basically hamstrung by the issue, unable to use it effectively in commercials since Mazzeo declined to press charges. The final debate last Friday was after the story broke but not televised in Las Vegas, and with only vague reference in one question to the incident. Titus has been lagging in the womens vote and independent vote compared to Democrats with poll leads, so this issue potentially impacts both areas.

There's more...

Did Dems peak too early?

If the election had been held two weeks ago, we would have won.  We would have taken back the House with a big majority, taken the Senate with a slim majority, and at least come close to holding a majority of the governor's mansions.

But the Foley story seems to have died down a bit, and the only Republican seats that truly seem to have been put in jeopardy because of it are Foley's seat and Tom Reynolds's.  The Senate races have been affected little by it, and while the dialogue now seems to be mostly focused on Iraq, it seems that our gains won't be as great as they would have been two weeks ago.

There's more...

Election Scorecard & Prediction Contest

Well now that we're a month out from election day, I've put together an election scorecard of the 36 Governors races, all 33 Senate races, and 90 of the most likely House races.  

I've aleady been using a printout to note polling results, etc.

Aside from a tracking device, I've decided to use it as an elections predictions contest.  In addition to posting it on MyDD, I'll be posting it in a couple of other venues.  More below the fold.

There's more...

What a Tsunami Could Mean for Democrats: The Long Term Effects of 1994

Twelve years have passed since Newt Gingrich led a historic charge that gave Republicans control of the House for the first time in 40 years.  The class of 1994 is till (unfortunately for Democrats) alive, well, and providing Republicans with their governing majority.

Republicans won a net gain of 54 seats in the House in 1994.  As of today (9/17), 31 members of the Republican class of 1994 are serving in the House.  That figure does not include Bob Ney of Ohio who recently pled guilty to a crime but does include Brian Bilbray.  Even twelve years later, this is still the largest Republican class in the House by a comfortable margin.

Of course, not all Republicans who were first elected to the House are still serving at such a low level.  Saxby Chambliss of Georgia is a Senator, courtesy of his TV attack ads on Max Clelland.  Sam Brownback of Kansas is a Senator and a potential Presidential candidate.  Richard Burr of North Carolina is a Senator.  Tom Coburn of Oklahoma and Lindsey Graham of South Carolina are also member of the Senate.  Mark Sanford is the Governor of South Carolina and Angus King was the Governor of Maine   So the class produced 5 Senators and two Governors from its House Republican ranks.

There's more...

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