83%

According to ABC's The Note:

<With the NGA conference taking place this weekend, it's a big weekend for governors on the Sunday shows. Fresh from signing California's budget, Schwarzenegger will appear Sunday morning on ABC's "This Week with George Stephanopoulos."</p>

Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal (R) will join Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (R) on NBC's "Meet the Press.""Fox News Sunday" has booked Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell (D), South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford (R), and Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R). >

That means 5 of the 6 governors appearing on the Sunday shows, or 83%, are Republicans.  This is despite the fact that 56% of our nation's governors are Democrats.

Am I the only one getting sick of our news organizations' overrepresentation of Republican voices?

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Yet Another Election Prediction Contest

Here's yet another election prediction contest covering all 50 states, 11 Governor's races, 35 Senate races, and 109 House races.

Instructions:

Presidential: for each state, indicate the winner, Obama or McCain.

Governors, Senate, House: delete the line of who you think will be the loser.

Tie-breaker: Indicate what you think Obama's winning (or losing) margin will be to the nearest tenth of a percentage point, e.g, +6.3, -1.2, etc.

Complete contest below the fold.

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How Blue? Downticket strength

The familiar imagery of blue state and red state America reduces politics to a simplistic split of a smaller number of Democratic states clustered in the Northeast, the Great Lakes, and the Pacific Coast and a larger number of less populous Republican states in the south and middle of the country.

To some extent, the 2006 midterm election solidified the Democratic hold on "their states." Twenty of the thirty pickups came from either blue states or from Ohio and Indiana.  Democrats picked up state legislatures and governorships (MA, OH)from within the area.  

The narrative below the fold examines the overall status of both blue and red states and indicates that the blue states are, in fact, more strongly Democratic than red states are Republican.  The upcoming 2008 Senate races may well further confirm this trend.

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Rating the Fifty States

This is an "off the top of my head" look at each of the fifty states, mostly looking at how possible it is for a Democratic presidential candidate to carry the state:

REPUBLICAN BASE:

These states haven't gone Democrat since I was old enough to vote (1972) and have a preponderance of Republican representing them and sitting in the Governor's chair.

1)  Idaho:  LBJ carried Idaho in '64.  No Democrat has been close since.  Both Congressmen and both Senators are Republicans, the Governor-elect is Republican.  I haven't checked, but I am pretty sure the legislatures in the state are solidly red.  It has been a long time since Frank Church and Cecil Andrus.  

2)  Mississippi:  In the solid red category, I am going to switch back and forth between the deep South and the inner-Mountain West.  Mississippi has two Democratic representatives, but clearly the national Democratic party is not looked on with favor.  Jimmy Carter carried Mississippi in '76, but another "son of the South", Bill Clinton, couldn't carry the state in his two successful elections.  

3)  Utah:  While the state has one Democratic representative, the numbers look daunting for any Democrat to carry the state.  Even W is popular here.  Two Republican US Senators.  LBJ carried Utah in '64, it hasn't really been close since.

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Who Can Succeed Bush Other Than Hillary?

I don't think Obama can do it.  But even if he does, considering other contenders at this point might help to groom potential running mates.

What makes a good (vice) presidential candidate?  Looks, age, experience, personality, and concealability.  Who ranks as a success under these combined criteria?  Governor Mike Easley of North Carolina.

1993-2001:  Attorney General
2001-2009:  Governor

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Diaries

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