Pollster New Year

A look back at 2011 in polls with Gallup's Year in Review.  Some highlights:

January -

May -

June -

August -

October -

Nate Silver lines up FiveThirtyEight's hit's and misses of the year

At the Crystal Ball, Sabato takes to the YouTube for 2012 and Abramowitz reminds everyone that no, again, just like every other year, 2012 won't see and anti-incumbent wave.  So what are voters thinking then?  "Meh"  and "Go Packers!"

And finally, per tradition, polling on the first GOP candidates in Iowa is all over the place, but Mark Blumenthal says there's one last "one to watch" of 2011:

On New Year's Eve exactly four years ago, the Des Moines Register released its final poll of Iowa caucus-goers and turned the political world upside down.

While the newspaper's final Iowa Caucus poll of 2011, set to be published Saturday night at 7 p.m. Central Time (8 p.m. Eastern Time), may not confound the conventional wisdom this time, it is among the most eagerly anticipated political polls of the season for good reason. The Register has a hard-earned reputation for accuracy grounded in the fundamentals of survey research: Assume as little as possible about the likely caucus-goers, and let the voters speak for themselves.

Happy New Year.

Pollster New Year

A look back at 2011 in polls with Gallup's Year in Review.  Some highlights:

January -

May -

June -

August -

October -

Nate Silver lines up FiveThirtyEight's hit's and misses of the year

At the Crystal Ball, Sabato takes to the YouTube for 2012 and Abramowitz reminds everyone that no, again, just like every other year, 2012 won't see and anti-incumbent wave.  So what are voters thinking then?  "Meh"  and "Go Packers!"

And finally, per tradition, polling on the first GOP candidates in Iowa is all over the place, but Mark Blumenthal says there's one last "one to watch" of 2011:

On New Year's Eve exactly four years ago, the Des Moines Register released its final poll of Iowa caucus-goers and turned the political world upside down.

While the newspaper's final Iowa Caucus poll of 2011, set to be published Saturday night at 7 p.m. Central Time (8 p.m. Eastern Time), may not confound the conventional wisdom this time, it is among the most eagerly anticipated political polls of the season for good reason. The Register has a hard-earned reputation for accuracy grounded in the fundamentals of survey research: Assume as little as possible about the likely caucus-goers, and let the voters speak for themselves.

Happy New Year.

Two Polls

Biggest Worry:

Americans aged 30 to 49 -- who are the most worried about funding their retirement -- are also the most likely to say Social Security and Medicare are in a crisis. Additionally, Gallup has found non-retirees increasingly likely to believe they will have to fund their own retirement, relying more on 401(k)s and other self-directed retirement plans and less on Social Security and pensions than today's retirees. Thus, it is not surprising non-retirees' future financial security is a significant worry for them.

Economic Confidence:

The sharp drop in economic confidence in early June is consistent with the deterioration in the jobs situation, six consecutive weeks of decline on Wall Street, and fears of a global economic slowdown. Even a recent decline in gas prices to $3.78 a gallon has not been enough to offset the decline in consumer optimism -- possibly in part because overall pump prices remain more than $1 per gallon higher than they were a year ago.

There are a lot of takeaways from both Gallup polls here but most obvious for Democrats and the President (or obvious to everyone but the Democrats and the President?) is that Republicans are a) winning the messaging war on the social safety net gloom and doom even if they're losing the messaging war on what to do about it, and b) have backed Obama into a corner, gleefully reporting job numbers and negative projections as if they had no part in it.  The economy is going to need more than extending the tax holiday, Republicans know it, and they aren't going to let it happen. 

Bad place for an incumbent to be.

But it's early.  Democrats need to toss the finger pointing -- albeit justified -- own the poor state of things and offer an aggressive plan.  If recovery remains slow a politically impossible plan that dies on the House's tea party altar is still going to be a bigger boost than telling voters you did everything you thought you had the votes for knowing it wouldn't be enough.

UPDATE: Looks like the TeaGOP isn't even going to give him the tax cuts.  Welcome to the perpetual Republican campaign.

Two Polls

Biggest Worry:

Americans aged 30 to 49 -- who are the most worried about funding their retirement -- are also the most likely to say Social Security and Medicare are in a crisis. Additionally, Gallup has found non-retirees increasingly likely to believe they will have to fund their own retirement, relying more on 401(k)s and other self-directed retirement plans and less on Social Security and pensions than today's retirees. Thus, it is not surprising non-retirees' future financial security is a significant worry for them.

Economic Confidence:

The sharp drop in economic confidence in early June is consistent with the deterioration in the jobs situation, six consecutive weeks of decline on Wall Street, and fears of a global economic slowdown. Even a recent decline in gas prices to $3.78 a gallon has not been enough to offset the decline in consumer optimism -- possibly in part because overall pump prices remain more than $1 per gallon higher than they were a year ago.

There are a lot of takeaways from both Gallup polls here but most obvious for Democrats and the President (or obvious to everyone but the Democrats and the President?) is that Republicans are a) winning the messaging war on the social safety net gloom and doom even if they're losing the messaging war on what to do about it, and b) have backed Obama into a corner, gleefully reporting job numbers and negative projections as if they had no part in it.  The economy is going to need more than extending the tax holiday, Republicans know it, and they aren't going to let it happen. 

Bad place for an incumbent to be.

But it's early.  Democrats need to toss the finger pointing -- albeit justified -- own the poor state of things and offer an aggressive plan.  If recovery remains slow a politically impossible plan that dies on the House's tea party altar is still going to be a bigger boost than telling voters you did everything you thought you had the votes for knowing it wouldn't be enough.

UPDATE: Looks like the TeaGOP isn't even going to give him the tax cuts.  Welcome to the perpetual Republican campaign.

Two Polls

Biggest Worry:

Americans aged 30 to 49 -- who are the most worried about funding their retirement -- are also the most likely to say Social Security and Medicare are in a crisis. Additionally, Gallup has found non-retirees increasingly likely to believe they will have to fund their own retirement, relying more on 401(k)s and other self-directed retirement plans and less on Social Security and pensions than today's retirees. Thus, it is not surprising non-retirees' future financial security is a significant worry for them.

Economic Confidence:

The sharp drop in economic confidence in early June is consistent with the deterioration in the jobs situation, six consecutive weeks of decline on Wall Street, and fears of a global economic slowdown. Even a recent decline in gas prices to $3.78 a gallon has not been enough to offset the decline in consumer optimism -- possibly in part because overall pump prices remain more than $1 per gallon higher than they were a year ago.

There are a lot of takeaways from both Gallup polls here but most obvious for Democrats and the President (or obvious to everyone but the Democrats and the President?) is that Republicans are a) winning the messaging war on the social safety net gloom and doom even if they're losing the messaging war on what to do about it, and b) have backed Obama into a corner, gleefully reporting job numbers and negative projections as if they had no part in it.  The economy is going to need more than extending the tax holiday, Republicans know it, and they aren't going to let it happen. 

Bad place for an incumbent to be.

But it's early.  Democrats need to toss the finger pointing -- albeit justified -- own the poor state of things and offer an aggressive plan.  If recovery remains slow a politically impossible plan that dies on the House's tea party altar is still going to be a bigger boost than telling voters you did everything you thought you had the votes for knowing it wouldn't be enough.

UPDATE: Looks like the TeaGOP isn't even going to give him the tax cuts.  Welcome to the perpetual Republican campaign.

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