Gallup poll: Hillary leads Giuliani by 6%, helped by Bloomberg

Gallup has just released a poll in which Michael Bloomberg is included for the first time. Hillary Clinton received 45% of votes, against 39% for Giuliani and 12% for Bloomberg.

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Peer Pressure caused USA TODAY/Gallup Poll to change their results.

USA TODAY/Gallup Poll Organization lost their credibility.

Frank Newport, editor in chief of the Gallup Poll, said the previous poll "either picked up a short-term change or ... was a function of unusual sampling, which happened to pick up Democrats who were more pro-Obama than the underlying population."Translation: Our poll will always show Clinton with a lead because no other candidate could possibly have more support than her.

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Polls: Young People Are More Supportive of the War in Iraq

Gallup has a new poll out on age as factor in Iraq war support.  Read it quick, because these articles usually go up behind a pay firewall after a while.  The study yields this conclusion:

Here again, we find evidence for the persistence of the age factor in views of the war regardless of one's gender or political orientation. Within every subgroup of the American population created by the combination of age, gender, and party identification, those who are 50 and older are more likely than those under age 50 to say the war was a mistake.

All in all, perceptions that the war was a mistake range from a low of 20% among 18- to 49-year-old Republican women to a high of 89% among Democratic men and Democratic women aged 50 and older.

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Poll Warning: Bush is climbing steadily

I (wearing my Pollkatz hat) just want to point out that Bush has been
climbing in the polls, steadily, since he bottomed out in May.  Before you say "gasoline prices," wait a minute.

Yes, Bush's approval tanked as gas prices rose (pun sort of intended) in the winter and spring, but gas prices topped out in April, and only in August did they start to fall appreciably.  But Bush has been trending up since May.

What's really ominous is that this is only the second time in Bush's reign where he's enjoyed a steady rise in approval in the absence of a crisis (9/11, going to war, capture of Saddam).  The other time began in the summer of 2004, and peaked just in time for the election.  Bush is about 12-15 points lower now than then, but the trend line looks eerily the same.

What this bodes for the fall elections, I don't know.

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