Counter-Narrative?

Hillary gets a big bump in the latest Gallup polling, although we won't see the impact from Feb. 5 results until tomorrow.

PRINCETON, NJ -- The increase in support for Hillary Clinton at the national level that Gallup saw in interviewing conducted Sunday and Monday continued in interviewing Tuesday night. Gallup Poll Daily tracking conducted Feb. 3-5 now includes three consecutive days in which Clinton has done well, giving her a 13-percentage point lead over Barack Obama, 52% to 39%.

Democratic preferences in Tuesday night's interviews -- mostly conducted before Super Tuesday election results were known -- were similar to Sunday and Monday night's interviews. Gallup Poll Daily tracking will not begin to reflect the impact of Tuesday's voting on national Democratic preferences until tomorrow.

Obama had been competitive with Clinton in interviews conducted Feb. 2 (as well as earlier last week), but those interviews have now dropped out of Gallup's continuous three-day rolling average reporting.

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Gallup: Obama closing the gap and getting most of Edwards' supporters

The latest Gallup poll shows that Obama now trails Hillary by just 3 pts. Early indication shows that Obama is getting most of John Edwards supporters.

Gallup Poll Daily tracking shows Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama as close as they have been since the polling program started at the beginning of 2008. Forty-four percent of Democratic voters nationwide support Clinton, while 41% support Obama, within the poll's three-point margin of error. The data suggest that Obama has gained slightly more -- at least initially -- from John Edwards' departure from the race. In the final tracking data including Edwards in all three days' interviewing (Jan. 27-29 data), Clinton had 42%, Obama 36%, and Edwards 12%. Since then, Clinton's support has increased two points and Obama's five. Tomorrow's release will be the first pure post-Edwards three-day rolling average

A similar story is emerging from the lastest Rasmussen poll too.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Barack Obama inching closer to Hillary Clinton in the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination. It's now Clinton 43%, Obama 37%. (see recent daily numbers). A week ago, Clinton had an eleven point advantage, 41% to 30%.

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The last two nights of tracking were the first without John Edwards in the race. For those two nights, it's Clinton 44% and Obama 42% meaning that Clinton's support is essentially unchanged. This suggests that many former Edwards supporters now support Obama, many others have yet to make a decision, and few currently support Clinton.

Clearly Obama is riding a wave right now and Hillary might be unable to withstand this tsunami especially after his strong debate performance last night.

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[UPDATED] USA Today/Gallup: Clinton Maintains Lead

USA Today/Gallup, in the field November 2-4 2007 reports little change in the Democratic primary race with Hillary Clinton leading Barack Obama by 28 points.


The Democratic race "is a locomotive with Hillary Clinton's face on it," political analyst Charlie Cook says. "On the Republican side, it looks like the TV show Survivor."

Poll results

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Gallup: Clinton 48%, Obama 26%, Edwards 12%

New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton has significantly widened her lead over Illinois Sen. Barack Obama for the Democratic presidential nomination," USA TODAY Washington bureau chief Susan Page writes.

She tells us that according to the latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll, Clinton's support among Democrats and independent voters who "lean" Democratic stands at 48%. -- up eight percentage points from three weeks ago.

Obama's support: 26%, down two points. In third: Former North Carolina senator John Edwards, at 12%.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2007-08-06-poll_N.html

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What the Hell is Going On with the Polls?

One quick question to you political junkies out there:

What the hell is going on with Rasmussen?  Every other poll has Bush at around 30% or lower (ARG now says 25%) but Rasmussen has him at 38%.  That's a spread of over 13 percentage points.  Can someone explain to me the methodology between Rasmussen and everyone else?

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Diaries

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