NH Fox News Poll: Bad News For Clinton, Good News For Edwards

Latest Fox News poll out of New Hampshire (500 LVs, Nov. 27-29, MOE 4%) has been released.

On the Democratic side, contrary to the past several polls, Fox finds Clinton falling. While there are no trendlines, Clinton's 30% is her lowest level of support in the state since July and is 3.5% below her recent average. One thing that this poll would appear to confirm, though, is that Obama's momentum in Iowa is not carrying over to New Hampshire as his level of support tracks with his recent average. Edwards on the other hand is exceeding his. Edwards's movement in New Hampshire appears to be real.

CandidateFox NewsRCP 4-poll Ave.
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Fox Poll: Clinton's Lead Over Republicans Grows, Obama's Fades

The latest Fox News poll out today (9/25-26) has national general election head-to-head match-ups between the top two Democrats and the top three Republicans (nationally.) While both Clinton and Obama beat each of their Republican opponents, the results show Clinton has strengthened her hand against the Republicans over the last two months while Obama's has weakened (July 17-18 results in parentheses.)

Hillary Clinton 46 (46)
Rudy Giuliani 39 (41)

Barack Obama 41 (45)
Rudy Giuliani 40 (41)

Hillary Clinton 48 (47)
Fred Thompson 35 (38)

Barack Obama 45 (48)
Fred Thompson 32 (33)

Hillary Clinton 46 (45)
John McCain 39 (42)

Barack Obama 40 (47)
John McCain 38 (37)

Two factors are contributing to this shift. One is Clinton's increased support among Democrats. Since July, Clinton's net gains among Democrats versus Giuliani, Thompson and McCain are +8, +10 and +12 respectively. This contrasts with Obama whose comparable net gains were -2, -4 and +7. In fact, not only is Obama's post-partisan message not winning over Democrats, but it's not even paying dividends among Republicans or Independents, which is the heart of Obama's unity pitch. In fact, in every head to head match-up, Obama's level of support among Republicans and Independents declined from July to September. Clinton lost support among Republicans but gained slightly among independents in each match-up.

Here are how the match-ups look just among independents (again July 17-18 results in parentheses):

Hillary Clinton 44 (42)
Rudy Giuliani 33 (41)

Barack Obama 37 (37)
Rudy Giuliani 36 (42)

Hillary Clinton 46 (42)
Fred Thompson 29 (39)

Barack Obama 42 (43)
Fred Thompson 30 (31)

Hillary Clinton 43 (40)
John McCain 33 (39)

Barack Obama 32 (45)
John McCain 37 (31)

Interestingly, while independent support for Clinton grows modestly, their support for the Republicans in match-ups against her absolutely plummets. Against Clinton, independent support for Giuliani drops 8 points, support for Thompson drops 10 points and support for McCain drops 6 points. (The undecided column is a larger beneficiary of these defections than Clinton is.) Independents flee Giuliani and Thompson against Obama as well, although in fewer numbers: 6 points and 1 point respectively. But independents' support of John McCain actually jumps 6 points when against Barack Obama and Obama's support falls a stunning 13 points; in fact, independents now prefer McCain to Obama 37% to 32%. But one thing is clear: no matter who he is matched up against, Rudy Giuliani is losing independents.

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