Mexican Immigrants and the 2012 Mexican Presidential Election

By: Inoljt, http://mypolitikal.com/

There are quite a number of Mexican citizens living in America. Much political attention has been paid to these people by both American political parties. Liberals hope that the votes of their children will carve out a new permanent Democratic majority. Conservatives, on the other hand, relentlessly campaign against undocumented immigrants and “amnesty.”

When immigrant rallies occur, conservative media frequently focus on immigrants from Mexico waving Mexican flags. The implication is that these people are more loyal to Mexico than the United States.

Let’s take this thought a bit further, to a subject which most conservatives don’t think about. Like the United States, Mexico will have a presidential election in 2012. There are a lot of Mexican citizens in the United States (whether documented or undocumented). What if they voted?

So far they have not. Before the 2006 presidential election, Mexicans living abroad had to physically be present in Mexico to vote. Given the difficulty and expense of doing this (for all expatriates, not just Mexican), this effectively disenfranchised the Mexican expatriate population.

Before the 2006 presidential election, a new law was passed. This allowed Mexicans living abroad to register for an “overseas” ballot. The expectations were quite high; imagine the power of Mexico’s enormous expatriate vote to affect domestic Mexican politics.

As it turns out, however, only 32,632 Mexican citizens living in America bothered to take the offer. Most of them probably didn’t know about the procedure, or perhaps found it too complex. Apparently Mexican immigrants are just as disconnected to Mexican politics as they are to American politics (or more disconnected, in all probability).

Whether turn-out will be just as low in 2012 is still a mystery. Still, it’s pretty fascinating to consider what might happen if expatriate voting actually went into high-gear. What if the current ban on campaigning abroad was overturned? Imagine the PRI holding a political rally in California (or better yet, Arizona!). How about the PAN running advertisements on Univision?

Probably nothing more would piss nativists off than having Mexican political parties physically campaigning in the United States for the Mexican immigrant vote. It’s a humorous, if slightly unrealistic, thought.

 

 

Is China’s Economy Overheating?

Much interest – and muted apprehension – has been focused on the rapid growth of China’s economy. The Great Recession barely put a dent on the country’s continuing expansion, in stark contrast to the troubled economies of the First World.

Yet now an interesting thing is occurring; one hears murmurs about weakness in the Chinese economy, murmers which were not heard last year. Analysts are starting to advance the possibility that China’s economy is overheating. This is based upon economic indicators such as rising inflation (a classic sign of an economy running too fast).

Perhaps the most widely held view is that China faces a property bubble, whose bust would do quite a bit of damage to the economy. The New York Times, for instance, has written several articles examining excesses in China’s property boom. One article talks about a city named Ordos in northeastern China, full of recently built apartments that sit empty of residents. Such stories strongly recall tales during America’s property bubble, of empty suburban lots built around cities like Phoenix and Las Vegas, founded on the confident assumption that prices would keep on rising forever.

To be fair, there is a rationale for the speculation in Ordos. Despite its economic success, China has a lot of room to grow. Per capita income in China is still below that of Jamaica, for instance. So the new houses in Ordo will be filled, eventually, as poor peasants migrate to the cities.

Another article in the Times describes the building boom in Hainan Island – something that is harder to defend as economically rational. The Chinese government is apparently hoping to make the place a tourist destination, and such plans have set up an orgy of new construction. It is not immediately apparent, however, why Hainan Island is a better tourist spot than anyplace else in the world. In ten years its numerous golf resorts may well be languishing in red ink. The Hainan Island boom constitutes a strong indication of a property bubble.

China’s government seems to be recognizing these signs; the official rhetoric has shifted to cooling down the economy. Recently China’s central bank surprisingly raised interest rates in an attempt to do just that.

What would a property bust in China look like?

Well, China has actually had a previous property boom go awry. This was in the 1990s, and it may have temporarily lowered growth rates from ~12% to ~8% (although that bust apparently had little effect on the average Chinese person). The last time China had non-Chinese growth rates was in 1989 and 1990; the last time it had negative growth was during 1976, the year Chairman Mao Zedong died.

Given the political turmoil that occurred on both dates, a bad enough property bust might spark similar unrest. On the other hand, China’s government probably has enough domestic credibility to weather even negative economic growth. Moreover, the country’s economy probably has enough steam – the percentage of GDP in investment and savings is unparalleled in modern history – to continue growing at >6% per year even were such a bust to occur. It would take quite a shock to throw the economy off from its current upsloping course.

--Inoljt, http://mypolitikal.com/ 

 

Is China’s Economy Overheating?

Much interest – and muted apprehension – has been focused on the rapid growth of China’s economy. The Great Recession barely put a dent on the country’s continuing expansion, in stark contrast to the troubled economies of the First World.

Yet now an interesting thing is occurring; one hears murmurs about weakness in the Chinese economy, murmers which were not heard last year. Analysts are starting to advance the possibility that China’s economy is overheating. This is based upon economic indicators such as rising inflation (a classic sign of an economy running too fast).

Perhaps the most widely held view is that China faces a property bubble, whose bust would do quite a bit of damage to the economy. The New York Times, for instance, has written several articles examining excesses in China’s property boom. One article talks about a city named Ordos in northeastern China, full of recently built apartments that sit empty of residents. Such stories strongly recall tales during America’s property bubble, of empty suburban lots built around cities like Phoenix and Las Vegas, founded on the confident assumption that prices would keep on rising forever.

To be fair, there is a rationale for the speculation in Ordos. Despite its economic success, China has a lot of room to grow. Per capita income in China is still below that of Jamaica, for instance. So the new houses in Ordo will be filled, eventually, as poor peasants migrate to the cities.

Another article in the Times describes the building boom in Hainan Island – something that is harder to defend as economically rational. The Chinese government is apparently hoping to make the place a tourist destination, and such plans have set up an orgy of new construction. It is not immediately apparent, however, why Hainan Island is a better tourist spot than anyplace else in the world. In ten years its numerous golf resorts may well be languishing in red ink. The Hainan Island boom constitutes a strong indication of a property bubble.

China’s government seems to be recognizing these signs; the official rhetoric has shifted to cooling down the economy. Recently China’s central bank surprisingly raised interest rates in an attempt to do just that.

What would a property bust in China look like?

Well, China has actually had a previous property boom go awry. This was in the 1990s, and it may have temporarily lowered growth rates from ~12% to ~8% (although that bust apparently had little effect on the average Chinese person). The last time China had non-Chinese growth rates was in 1989 and 1990; the last time it had negative growth was during 1976, the year Chairman Mao Zedong died.

Given the political turmoil that occurred on both dates, a bad enough property bust might spark similar unrest. On the other hand, China’s government probably has enough domestic credibility to weather even negative economic growth. Moreover, the country’s economy probably has enough steam – the percentage of GDP in investment and savings is unparalleled in modern history – to continue growing at >6% per year even were such a bust to occur. It would take quite a shock to throw the economy off from its current upsloping course.

--Inoljt, http://mypolitikal.com/ 

 

Is China’s Economy Overheating?

Much interest – and muted apprehension – has been focused on the rapid growth of China’s economy. The Great Recession barely put a dent on the country’s continuing expansion, in stark contrast to the troubled economies of the First World.

Yet now an interesting thing is occurring; one hears murmurs about weakness in the Chinese economy, murmers which were not heard last year. Analysts are starting to advance the possibility that China’s economy is overheating. This is based upon economic indicators such as rising inflation (a classic sign of an economy running too fast).

Perhaps the most widely held view is that China faces a property bubble, whose bust would do quite a bit of damage to the economy. The New York Times, for instance, has written several articles examining excesses in China’s property boom. One article talks about a city named Ordos in northeastern China, full of recently built apartments that sit empty of residents. Such stories strongly recall tales during America’s property bubble, of empty suburban lots built around cities like Phoenix and Las Vegas, founded on the confident assumption that prices would keep on rising forever.

To be fair, there is a rationale for the speculation in Ordos. Despite its economic success, China has a lot of room to grow. Per capita income in China is still below that of Jamaica, for instance. So the new houses in Ordo will be filled, eventually, as poor peasants migrate to the cities.

Another article in the Times describes the building boom in Hainan Island – something that is harder to defend as economically rational. The Chinese government is apparently hoping to make the place a tourist destination, and such plans have set up an orgy of new construction. It is not immediately apparent, however, why Hainan Island is a better tourist spot than anyplace else in the world. In ten years its numerous golf resorts may well be languishing in red ink. The Hainan Island boom constitutes a strong indication of a property bubble.

China’s government seems to be recognizing these signs; the official rhetoric has shifted to cooling down the economy. Recently China’s central bank surprisingly raised interest rates in an attempt to do just that.

What would a property bust in China look like?

Well, China has actually had a previous property boom go awry. This was in the 1990s, and it may have temporarily lowered growth rates from ~12% to ~8% (although that bust apparently had little effect on the average Chinese person). The last time China had non-Chinese growth rates was in 1989 and 1990; the last time it had negative growth was during 1976, the year Chairman Mao Zedong died.

Given the political turmoil that occurred on both dates, a bad enough property bust might spark similar unrest. On the other hand, China’s government probably has enough domestic credibility to weather even negative economic growth. Moreover, the country’s economy probably has enough steam – the percentage of GDP in investment and savings is unparalleled in modern history – to continue growing at >6% per year even were such a bust to occur. It would take quite a shock to throw the economy off from its current upsloping course.

--Inoljt, http://mypolitikal.com/ 

 

Is China’s Economy Overheating?

Much interest – and muted apprehension – has been focused on the rapid growth of China’s economy. The Great Recession barely put a dent on the country’s continuing expansion, in stark contrast to the troubled economies of the First World.

Yet now an interesting thing is occurring; one hears murmurs about weakness in the Chinese economy, murmers which were not heard last year. Analysts are starting to advance the possibility that China’s economy is overheating. This is based upon economic indicators such as rising inflation (a classic sign of an economy running too fast).

Perhaps the most widely held view is that China faces a property bubble, whose bust would do quite a bit of damage to the economy. The New York Times, for instance, has written several articles examining excesses in China’s property boom. One article talks about a city named Ordos in northeastern China, full of recently built apartments that sit empty of residents. Such stories strongly recall tales during America’s property bubble, of empty suburban lots built around cities like Phoenix and Las Vegas, founded on the confident assumption that prices would keep on rising forever.

To be fair, there is a rationale for the speculation in Ordos. Despite its economic success, China has a lot of room to grow. Per capita income in China is still below that of Jamaica, for instance. So the new houses in Ordo will be filled, eventually, as poor peasants migrate to the cities.

Another article in the Times describes the building boom in Hainan Island – something that is harder to defend as economically rational. The Chinese government is apparently hoping to make the place a tourist destination, and such plans have set up an orgy of new construction. It is not immediately apparent, however, why Hainan Island is a better tourist spot than anyplace else in the world. In ten years its numerous golf resorts may well be languishing in red ink. The Hainan Island boom constitutes a strong indication of a property bubble.

China’s government seems to be recognizing these signs; the official rhetoric has shifted to cooling down the economy. Recently China’s central bank surprisingly raised interest rates in an attempt to do just that.

What would a property bust in China look like?

Well, China has actually had a previous property boom go awry. This was in the 1990s, and it may have temporarily lowered growth rates from ~12% to ~8% (although that bust apparently had little effect on the average Chinese person). The last time China had non-Chinese growth rates was in 1989 and 1990; the last time it had negative growth was during 1976, the year Chairman Mao Zedong died.

Given the political turmoil that occurred on both dates, a bad enough property bust might spark similar unrest. On the other hand, China’s government probably has enough domestic credibility to weather even negative economic growth. Moreover, the country’s economy probably has enough steam – the percentage of GDP in investment and savings is unparalleled in modern history – to continue growing at >6% per year even were such a bust to occur. It would take quite a shock to throw the economy off from its current upsloping course.

--Inoljt, http://mypolitikal.com/ 

 

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