How I Was a Part of Making History

Wow... Just wow. After all these months of waiting, Super Duper Tuesday finally came upon us. And like many of you, I actually had a chance to vote in it as I'm a registered California Democrat. But you know what's even more amazing? I got to personally take part in the campaign.

I watched with my own eyes as people poured into campaign event. I listened with my own ears as my fellow California Democrats were telling me how they intended to vote.  And most importantly, I worked my own behind off to make history happen.

Follow me after the flip for more...

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Undersampling of women in polls skews results ?

When I opened the newspaper this morning (Washington Post) the headline proclaimed "Obama, Clinton Are Even in Poll".  The accompanying article indicated that in a national poll Hillary is now leading Obama by 47 to 43, within the margin of error.  I went online to look at the crosstabs and one thing immediately jumped out from the numbers:  "sex (in sample): 48% male, 52% female"

Source: itics/polls/postpoll_020308.html

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Demographic Battle for Delegates: Obama wins February 5 Majority

With his win in South Carolina, Obama has just expanded his reach and demography.  Such expansion would help propel him to a huge win in February 5 states.  Let see how Obama's coalition is currently looking:
The Youth Vote   = more than 50%
Women Vote        =  between 35% to 65%
Latino Vote          =  less than 30%
White Men           =  better than Hillary
Black Vote          = consistently up to 80%

From the above observation, Obama needs to work for his Latino share of the votes as well as the Seniors, while at the same time keeping his base of Women and Youths very energized and motivated.

If John Edwards remains in this race through February 5, then Obama would win the majority of the delegates at stake with his current coalition.

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23 States May Hold Primaries On February 5

A total of 23 states may hold primaries on February 5, 2008. By the end of the day as many as 50% of the delegates will have been chosen. The end of the long primary season is changing the game plans of all candidates as they figure out how to put their resources into the larger delegate rich states and to assess if Iowa and New Hampshire will have as much impact as they had in the past.

The presidential primary system as we have known it for 35 years is dead. History books will record that the era that began with the Democratic National Committee's post-1968 reforms ended Aug. 19, 2006 at the hands of the very same DNC. yId=247

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