Delegates Out of Nevada -- Obama to Outpace Clinton?

From MSNBC's First Read:

The following delegates are allocated in the NV Democratic caucus:
Clinton -- 13
Obama -- 12

None remaining to be allocated.

The Obama campaign, via email, disagrees:

Senator Obama was awarded 13 delegates to Senator Clinton's 12.

A statement released under Obama's name reads as follows:

We came from over twenty-five points behind to win more national convention delegates than Hillary Clinton because we performed well all across the state, including rural areas where Democrats have traditionally struggled.

Not quite sure what to make of this divergence. I'm trying to follow up and find out exactly what's up. At best for Clinton, it looks like there will be an overall tie between her and Obama in terms of pledged delegates, with 37 apiece for the two candidates. If the Obama campaign is to be believed, the Illinois Senator might still hold a 38 delegate to 36 delegate lead out of Nevada. More to come as I find out...

Update [2008-1-19 18:32:3 by Jonathan Singer]: I've gotten a confirmation from the Obama campaign that indeed they project winning 13 delegates to Clinton's 12 -- in effect a win even though the New York Senator won statewide. Ari Melber over at The Nation is reporting as much as well:

A current estimate of the national convention delegate count is below, though not all precincts have fully reported.

District 1 Clinton 3, Obama 3

District 2 (Washoe) Clinton 1, Obama 2

District 2 (Rural) Clinton 0, Obama 1

District 2 (Clark) Clinton 1, Obama 1

District 3 (Clark) Clinton 2, Obama 2

At-Large Clinton 2, Obama 1

PLEO Clinton 3, Obama 3

Very interesting stuff. If this is indeed a delegate battle (leaving aside for a moment issues of momentum, which are extremely important), this could actually be somewhat of a win for Obama. Interesting.

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Delegate Count Update

From First Read below find the delegates won tonight (plus the new delegate totals):





[editor's note, by Todd Beeton]I deleted the incorrect First Read tidbit about 4 different people winning the first two contests. As Jonathan explains below:

This is the second time, not the first, that four different people won the Iowa and New Hampshire Republican and Democratic contests, with Dick Gephardt and Bob Dole winning Iowa and Michael Dukakis and George H.W. Bush winning New Hampshire (First Read incorrectly has Dukakis winning Iowa on their chart despite him coming in third in the contest behind Gephardt and Paul Simon).

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Please fix the ticker - Edwards has 15

Please fix the ticker on the front page.  It currently shows Hilary with 15 and Edwards with 14.  That is backwards.  Edwards has 15.

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Michigan and Florida - In response to Jerome

This is a response to Jerome's very precient diary. I wanted to expand on what he wrote about Michigan and Florida. I think I'm coming around to his point of view, but there is much more to be said.

I agree that the Michigan and Florida delegates may eventually be counted and reseated...but at a VERY LATE DATE.


If history is a guide, a long and drawn out delegate battle is not likely.

In the VERY UNLIKELY event of an actual delegate battle, if Florida and Michigan are suddenly reallocated and PROVIDE HILLARY'S MARGIN OF VICTORY, then this will likely ignite such a furor that will CAUSE CHAOS IN THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY. Seriously. Hillary doesn't want to get the nomination through DNC machinations and reseating of delegates months after they were unseated. That would be fairly bitter. Tons of chaos and hatred between the Obama and Clinton camps - lots of recriminations about corrupt bargains.

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Barack Obama's Ace in the Hole

Cross-posted from DailyKos:

This weekend me and one hundred and sixty of my fellow Obama supporters were taught the secret to this campaign: us.  Barack Obama has, first and foremost, reinvested in our success, in our future.  And in turn, we have been taught to be better organizers, better leaders, better supporters, and perhaps, better people.  

I cannot stress enough how powerful this training was.  I feel empowered.  No other campaign has ever done anything like this.  Barack is pushing down responsibility, asking us to organize ourselves instead of waiting for instructions from the campaign.  We are organizing and creating support in a way that no other campaign has ever attempted.  We are drawing more small dollar supporters than any campaign ever has before.  We are the future.

More specifics below the fold...    

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