Money and the 2010 Midterms

A bit of cold water for those who think the outcome of the 2010 midterms has already been decided, with the Republicans set to retake one or both Houses of the Congress.

The top 3 Dem campaign committees have outraised their GOP rivals, adding to a financial gap that some on the GOP side believe could rob them of opportunities come Nov.

The DSCC will report having raised $6M in March, barely higher than the NRSC's $5.14M raised. The DSCC also has a narrow cash on hand advantage, with $17M in the bank versus the NRSC's $15M.

Also this month, the DNC outraised the RNC by a $13M to $11M margin. Earlier today, the DCCC announced it would file reports showing it had outraised the NRCC, $9.77M to $8M.

Both the DCCC and the DSCC have paid off all their debt. The DNC still had $3.7M in obligations at the end of last month, though they have yet to report a debt figure this month. None of the GOP committees have showed a debt for months.

Looking deeper into the numbers, specifically into those relating to the House of Representatives, which is viewed as more tenuously in the hands of the Democrats than the Senate, the party in power now holds a $26 million to $10 million cash-on-hand advantage over the challenging Republicans. What does this mean? The national Democrats now have the capability to play in 2 1/2 times more seats than the national Republicans. While this financial disparity isn't assured to remain through November, the fact that the Democrats continue to raise more than their Republican counterparts suggests that all of the talk of the House already having been all but lost for the Democrats might be a bit overblown.

What the DCCC?

The Hawaii special election seems pretty bizzare. We have a couple of Democrats in the running, and a Republican. Whomever wins a plurality gets the nod.

On the onehand, AFSCME is backing Democratic state Sen. Colleen Hanabusa, so is EMILY's list, so are both Democratic Senators, Inouye and Akaka. On the otherhand, we have Ed Case, a former Representative that was a pretty conservative vote, considering he's represented Hawaii.No one is backing him, but the DCCC thinks he's more "electable" so they are:

In recent weeks, the DCCC reached out to Inouye and Akaka, both of whom have endorsed Hanabusa, to inform them the committee is considering lining up behind Case, according to two sources with knowledge of the conversations. 

"We have to figure out how we convince them that it's not in our interest to take a loss," said a top Democratic official who is not involved in the DCCC’s efforts.

Practically speaking, though, the key to delivering a win for Case may have less to do with Akaka and Inouye than with the Hawaii's most powerful union— the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, which is also backing Hanabusa.

Case has burned too many bridges in HI to get the full backing of the party. His staying in the race is probably the only way that the Republican could win with a plurality. This would be the time that you'd think the DCCC comes in and tells Case he doesn't have a chance, but instead is working at tearing down Hanabusa:

...the DCCC is providing under-the-radar organizational support to former Rep. Ed Case against state Sen. Colleen Hanabusa, including assistance from DCCC western regional political director Adam Sullivan.

Those efforts have coincided with the circulation of opposition research within Washington advancing the notion that Hanabusa is a longtime insider who received significant legislative pay raises at a time when the state has suffered through economic hard times—an emerging storyline that led Hanabusa to pull down her first campaign ad touting a vote to cut state legislative salaries and concede that the spot was misleading.

A pretty bone-headed ad, to be sure. So the DCCC did the oppo research on the Democrat and brought about a possible scenario in which Democrats lose the special election in Hawaii.

THings also don't look too rosey in Mutha's CD, where the more-electable Hafer was pushed dropped out of the primary:

The contest to replace the late Democratic Rep. John Murtha is still taking shape but Democrats in Pennsylvania and Washington are expressing worries is that the party nominee, former Murtha district director Mark Critz, is uniquely vulnerable to being painted as a political insider at time when that is no asset.

“Locally, there’s a lot of anger, people know things aren’t right. And it taps into the general anxiety out there that things are on the wrong track,” Barbara Hafer, Critz’s one-time primary opponent and a former state treasurer, told POLITICO. “That could lead into a throw-the-bums out attitude.”

One Democratic operative following the race, noting that public polling shows Critz with a narrow lead over Republican businessman Tim Burns in a district with a significant Democratic voter registration advantage, was blunter in his assessment: “It’s easy to make an argument that he’s part of the problem. He was a Hill staffer, he asked for questionable earmarks. There’s a lot to beat him up on.”

It's looking like Democrats will be lucky to come out of this with a split.

What the DCCC?

The Hawaii special election seems pretty bizzare. We have a couple of Democrats in the running, and a Republican. Whomever wins a plurality gets the nod.

On the onehand, AFSCME is backing Democratic state Sen. Colleen Hanabusa, so is EMILY's list, so are both Democratic Senators, Inouye and Akaka. On the otherhand, we have Ed Case, a former Representative that was a pretty conservative vote, considering he's represented Hawaii.No one is backing him, but the DCCC thinks he's more "electable" so they are:

In recent weeks, the DCCC reached out to Inouye and Akaka, both of whom have endorsed Hanabusa, to inform them the committee is considering lining up behind Case, according to two sources with knowledge of the conversations. 

"We have to figure out how we convince them that it's not in our interest to take a loss," said a top Democratic official who is not involved in the DCCC’s efforts.

Practically speaking, though, the key to delivering a win for Case may have less to do with Akaka and Inouye than with the Hawaii's most powerful union— the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, which is also backing Hanabusa.

Case has burned too many bridges in HI to get the full backing of the party. His staying in the race is probably the only way that the Republican could win with a plurality. This would be the time that you'd think the DCCC comes in and tells Case he doesn't have a chance, but instead is working at tearing down Hanabusa:

...the DCCC is providing under-the-radar organizational support to former Rep. Ed Case against state Sen. Colleen Hanabusa, including assistance from DCCC western regional political director Adam Sullivan.

Those efforts have coincided with the circulation of opposition research within Washington advancing the notion that Hanabusa is a longtime insider who received significant legislative pay raises at a time when the state has suffered through economic hard times—an emerging storyline that led Hanabusa to pull down her first campaign ad touting a vote to cut state legislative salaries and concede that the spot was misleading.

A pretty bone-headed ad, to be sure. So the DCCC did the oppo research on the Democrat and brought about a possible scenario in which Democrats lose the special election in Hawaii.

THings also don't look too rosey in Mutha's CD, where the more-electable Hafer was pushed dropped out of the primary:

The contest to replace the late Democratic Rep. John Murtha is still taking shape but Democrats in Pennsylvania and Washington are expressing worries is that the party nominee, former Murtha district director Mark Critz, is uniquely vulnerable to being painted as a political insider at time when that is no asset.

“Locally, there’s a lot of anger, people know things aren’t right. And it taps into the general anxiety out there that things are on the wrong track,” Barbara Hafer, Critz’s one-time primary opponent and a former state treasurer, told POLITICO. “That could lead into a throw-the-bums out attitude.”

One Democratic operative following the race, noting that public polling shows Critz with a narrow lead over Republican businessman Tim Burns in a district with a significant Democratic voter registration advantage, was blunter in his assessment: “It’s easy to make an argument that he’s part of the problem. He was a Hill staffer, he asked for questionable earmarks. There’s a lot to beat him up on.”

It's looking like Democrats will be lucky to come out of this with a split.

What the DCCC?

The Hawaii special election seems pretty bizzare. We have a couple of Democrats in the running, and a Republican. Whomever wins a plurality gets the nod.

On the onehand, AFSCME is backing Democratic state Sen. Colleen Hanabusa, so is EMILY's list, so are both Democratic Senators, Inouye and Akaka. On the otherhand, we have Ed Case, a former Representative that was a pretty conservative vote, considering he's represented Hawaii.No one is backing him, but the DCCC thinks he's more "electable" so they are:

In recent weeks, the DCCC reached out to Inouye and Akaka, both of whom have endorsed Hanabusa, to inform them the committee is considering lining up behind Case, according to two sources with knowledge of the conversations. 

"We have to figure out how we convince them that it's not in our interest to take a loss," said a top Democratic official who is not involved in the DCCC’s efforts.

Practically speaking, though, the key to delivering a win for Case may have less to do with Akaka and Inouye than with the Hawaii's most powerful union— the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, which is also backing Hanabusa.

Case has burned too many bridges in HI to get the full backing of the party. His staying in the race is probably the only way that the Republican could win with a plurality. This would be the time that you'd think the DCCC comes in and tells Case he doesn't have a chance, but instead is working at tearing down Hanabusa:

...the DCCC is providing under-the-radar organizational support to former Rep. Ed Case against state Sen. Colleen Hanabusa, including assistance from DCCC western regional political director Adam Sullivan.

Those efforts have coincided with the circulation of opposition research within Washington advancing the notion that Hanabusa is a longtime insider who received significant legislative pay raises at a time when the state has suffered through economic hard times—an emerging storyline that led Hanabusa to pull down her first campaign ad touting a vote to cut state legislative salaries and concede that the spot was misleading.

A pretty bone-headed ad, to be sure. So the DCCC did the oppo research on the Democrat and brought about a possible scenario in which Democrats lose the special election in Hawaii.

THings also don't look too rosey in Mutha's CD, where the more-electable Hafer was pushed dropped out of the primary:

The contest to replace the late Democratic Rep. John Murtha is still taking shape but Democrats in Pennsylvania and Washington are expressing worries is that the party nominee, former Murtha district director Mark Critz, is uniquely vulnerable to being painted as a political insider at time when that is no asset.

“Locally, there’s a lot of anger, people know things aren’t right. And it taps into the general anxiety out there that things are on the wrong track,” Barbara Hafer, Critz’s one-time primary opponent and a former state treasurer, told POLITICO. “That could lead into a throw-the-bums out attitude.”

One Democratic operative following the race, noting that public polling shows Critz with a narrow lead over Republican businessman Tim Burns in a district with a significant Democratic voter registration advantage, was blunter in his assessment: “It’s easy to make an argument that he’s part of the problem. He was a Hill staffer, he asked for questionable earmarks. There’s a lot to beat him up on.”

It's looking like Democrats will be lucky to come out of this with a split.

What the DCCC?

The Hawaii special election seems pretty bizzare. We have a couple of Democrats in the running, and a Republican. Whomever wins a plurality gets the nod.

On the onehand, AFSCME is backing Democratic state Sen. Colleen Hanabusa, so is EMILY's list, so are both Democratic Senators, Inouye and Akaka. On the otherhand, we have Ed Case, a former Representative that was a pretty conservative vote, considering he's represented Hawaii.No one is backing him, but the DCCC thinks he's more "electable" so they are:

In recent weeks, the DCCC reached out to Inouye and Akaka, both of whom have endorsed Hanabusa, to inform them the committee is considering lining up behind Case, according to two sources with knowledge of the conversations. 

"We have to figure out how we convince them that it's not in our interest to take a loss," said a top Democratic official who is not involved in the DCCC’s efforts.

Practically speaking, though, the key to delivering a win for Case may have less to do with Akaka and Inouye than with the Hawaii's most powerful union— the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, which is also backing Hanabusa.

Case has burned too many bridges in HI to get the full backing of the party. His staying in the race is probably the only way that the Republican could win with a plurality. This would be the time that you'd think the DCCC comes in and tells Case he doesn't have a chance, but instead is working at tearing down Hanabusa:

...the DCCC is providing under-the-radar organizational support to former Rep. Ed Case against state Sen. Colleen Hanabusa, including assistance from DCCC western regional political director Adam Sullivan.

Those efforts have coincided with the circulation of opposition research within Washington advancing the notion that Hanabusa is a longtime insider who received significant legislative pay raises at a time when the state has suffered through economic hard times—an emerging storyline that led Hanabusa to pull down her first campaign ad touting a vote to cut state legislative salaries and concede that the spot was misleading.

A pretty bone-headed ad, to be sure. So the DCCC did the oppo research on the Democrat and brought about a possible scenario in which Democrats lose the special election in Hawaii.

THings also don't look too rosey in Mutha's CD, where the more-electable Hafer was pushed dropped out of the primary:

The contest to replace the late Democratic Rep. John Murtha is still taking shape but Democrats in Pennsylvania and Washington are expressing worries is that the party nominee, former Murtha district director Mark Critz, is uniquely vulnerable to being painted as a political insider at time when that is no asset.

“Locally, there’s a lot of anger, people know things aren’t right. And it taps into the general anxiety out there that things are on the wrong track,” Barbara Hafer, Critz’s one-time primary opponent and a former state treasurer, told POLITICO. “That could lead into a throw-the-bums out attitude.”

One Democratic operative following the race, noting that public polling shows Critz with a narrow lead over Republican businessman Tim Burns in a district with a significant Democratic voter registration advantage, was blunter in his assessment: “It’s easy to make an argument that he’s part of the problem. He was a Hill staffer, he asked for questionable earmarks. There’s a lot to beat him up on.”

It's looking like Democrats will be lucky to come out of this with a split.

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