If there's a Wave, then Dan will Win...

i'm not particularly a believer in (national) wave elections.  they occur too infrequently and you cannot plan for them, hence i don't count on them.  as an old surfer, i easily identified rahm's electoral strategy: whip a bunch of campaigns into shape, and keep looking over his shoulder for that big wave to ride.  this gamble now looks like it may be paying off.

a lot of what i call (democratic) official-dom here in illinois has been focused on IL 6th, but the duckworth-roskam race will only offer a hint of whether there is a true wave election undertoe.  a better indicator to the strength of the national wave is IL 10th, with the race between dan seals and incumbent mark kirk.  

under normal conditions, kirk should be a safe incumbent.  kirk won 64% of the vote in 2004, pulling 174,158 votes to 97,701.  but kerry won the district (53%), kirk's re-elect number has hovered around 50%, and the generic ballot test has increasingly favored a democrat.  bush's popularity in the district has dived into the toilet with the rest of the country.

the key here is clearly to tie kirk to bush and the administration's failures.

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Effect of Lamont-Lieberman race on House of Reps. Election in November

    District          Lieberman     Lamont     Total    % Lamont
    1- Larson (D)      34,021    35,783    69,804    51.3%
    2- Simmons (R)   24,783    30,682    55,465    55.3%
    3- DeLauro (D)   32,232    29,572    61,804    47.8%
    4- Shays (R)       22,476    25,253    47,729    52.9%
    5- Johnson (R)    22,949    25,288    48,237    52.4%

    Connecticut      136,461   146,578  283,039    51.8%

Above are the Democratic primary results by Congressional District in Connecticut.  It is interesting to note that Lamont performed best in the three Republican-held districts.  Granted, the results here apply only to those who voted in the Democratic primary, and do not factor in the larger numbers of Republicans found in Districts 2, 4 and 5.  Nevertheless, it appears that at least Democrats in Simmons', Shays' and Johnson's districts are more pro-Lamont than Democrats in the two Democratic-held districts (Larson & DeLauro).  I believe that this is a net plus for the Democratic Congressional candidates in Districts 2, 4 and 5 as the Democrats in those districts will be more motivated to vote a "straight-Democratic" ticket.  Does anyone else have any thoughts on the numbers above ?

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Panic Building in the GOP?

I was quite amused to read this in the Washington Post

How nervous are Republicans that the Iraq war could hurt them in November? Nervous enough that Rep. Christopher Shays visited the same senior center twice in one week to defend his stand.

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CA-50: Francine Busby's Inspiring Speech in LA 2.4.06 (Audio)

bumped from the diaries... for more, check out this post from MyDD reader Words Have Power -- jonathan

Francine Busby is inspiring candidates across the nation to believe the impossible can happen. When you hear this speech you will know why. But also notice how she paid her dues before deciding to run for Congress. She served locally. She ran for other offices and won.

And she knows the value of fundraising! She spends hours everyday on the phone raising money so she can win the race. How do I know this? She told me so. Most of our new candidates have a hard time doing the same things that Francine Busby takes for granted.  And remember....she is her second run for the same seat...she doesn't give up!
She's the Model.....listen and learn....

And she still needs your donations. The closing weeks of this campaign will get increasingly expensive. Money is a key factor. Please give generously either at her site or the Netroots site.**The Flash Audio (no download) is at The Political Dogfight and is a short and vigorous speech! There is also an MP3 link for iPOD's.


[Before anyone asks...no I am not on staff as a Blogger for the Busby Campaign.]

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Orator wanted?: Wes Clark at LA Rally ( Audio)

Wes Clark has been one of the few major Democratic voices that has focused 100% of his time on the 2006 elections. In a private function that same evening he voiced a deep and emotional concern over what may happen if we don't win in 2006.

His themes:

  • Country over Party
  • Selflessness over Decision Making
  • Making more Friends than Enemies
and many more that were in that private time.

But at The Political Dogfight you can hear the intro from a local Air America personality and his full length speech. It's worth the 29 minutes it takes. iPOD link is there too.

Listen to this man and see if you think there aren't themes that every Democrat should have in every speech. I do.

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