Breaking China--Legally

 

by Walter Brasch

 

        Chinese President Hu Jintao's visit to the United States this past week has been met by both praise and political posturing. Hu, an intellectual with a strong sense of culture, hopes he is leading what he wishes to be "a Harmonious Society" with peaceful development. To that end, Hu said his government was prepared to “engage in dialogue and exchanges with the United States on the basis of mutual respect and the principle of noninterference in each other's internal affairs” on human rights questions. Although it seems as if Hu is saying that he wants each nation to continue to conduct its business without interference, he also acknowledged that “A lot still needs to be done in China in terms of human rights."

           But, some politicians, apparently feeling a need to make sure their home base knows they aren't weak on Communism, have called him a dictator, gangster, and emperor. Very few have spoken out about American-owned companies downsizing and outsourcing everything to China from toys and clothing to book printing and building materials.

           Although China is the world's second largest economic power behind the U.S. and this country's largest creditor, there is no need to fear either its economy or its military power. It has already sown the seeds of its own destruction.

           In 1996, there were almost no lawyers in China. By 2000, there were 110,000. There are now almost 200,000.

           With a society of lawyers, China is likely to collapse. Let's take an example. Ling Chou is riding his bicycle on Chairman Mao Boulevard. He starts to turn left, but is hit by a bicycle being ridden by Chang Liu. Under the principles of Confucianism, before there were lawyers, the two would see if each other was hurt, help out if necessary, and apologize profusely. If a bicycle was dented, the other person would fix it. If there weren't injuries or dents, they would shake hands and go their own ways. With lawyers, you don't do that. Ling grabs his lawyers; Chang grabs his own lawyers. It takes six inches of paperwork, a preliminary hearing before a magistrate, and two, maybe three continuances before the case comes before a judge. Then there are the bailiffs, marshals, clerks, typists, stenographers, and court reporters. After a three-day trial—during which three doctors from each side testify, and get paid very well for their conflicting opinions about back injuries and mental trauma—the judge decides the case. The whole thing takes a year. Maybe two.

           Now, let's look at the criminal side of law. In the past, Chinese citizens could walk down any street late at night and wouldn't even worry about a "Boo!" Now, with lawyers, you have to have criminals. So, the crime statistics go up. More lawyers show up. Some to prosecute. Some to defend. Before lawyers, China had work camps. Now there will be guards and wardens and rehabilitative counselors and parole boards and committees for prisoner rights, followed by committees for victim rights.

           With everyone suing, defending themselves from criminals, or being criminals, the Chinese won't have time to sew cheap coats or launch any wars.

           However, in the past couple of years, President Hu's government has gotten wise to the proliferation of lawyers. The licensing tests have become harder—only about one-fifth of the applicants pass them; and the annual fees have increased significantly.

           This has caused even greater problems. When lawyers get tired of being lawyers, they become politicians, just as in the U.S. And, as in the U.S., it isn't scientists, social workers, teachers, and other decent people who are running our government. Imagine what will happen when the lawyers finally take over the Chinese government. In a country with four times America's population there will be four times as many mortgage crises scandals, four times as many morals scandals, and four times the number of self-serving statements that they weren't responsible for whatever it was that went wrong in the country.

           More important, there will no longer be just one Communist Party, but at least two, each one screaming at the other one, fighting meaningless battles, and filling radio, television, and the Internet with equally meaningless blather. It'll only be a short time until the lawyer-led political system paralyzes a 4,000-year-old civilization that has given us great literature, music, sculpture, fashion, architecture, cuisine, and the use of martial arts for peaceful reasons.

           With the rise of lawyers and political parties, even America's corporations wouldn't outsource their products to a nation like that—not for all the tea (parties) in China.

 

[Walter Brasch is a multiple award-winning humor and general/politics columnist in competition sponsored by the National Society of Newspaper Columnists, Society of Professional Journalists, National Federation of Press Women, Pennsylvania Press Club, and Pennsylvania Women's Press Association. social issues columnist and He is the author of 17 books, most of which are available through amazon.com. You may contact him at walterbrasch@gmail.com]

 

 

Breaking China--Legally

 

by Walter Brasch

 

        Chinese President Hu Jintao's visit to the United States this past week has been met by both praise and political posturing. Hu, an intellectual with a strong sense of culture, hopes he is leading what he wishes to be "a Harmonious Society" with peaceful development. To that end, Hu said his government was prepared to “engage in dialogue and exchanges with the United States on the basis of mutual respect and the principle of noninterference in each other's internal affairs” on human rights questions. Although it seems as if Hu is saying that he wants each nation to continue to conduct its business without interference, he also acknowledged that “A lot still needs to be done in China in terms of human rights."

           But, some politicians, apparently feeling a need to make sure their home base knows they aren't weak on Communism, have called him a dictator, gangster, and emperor. Very few have spoken out about American-owned companies downsizing and outsourcing everything to China from toys and clothing to book printing and building materials.

           Although China is the world's second largest economic power behind the U.S. and this country's largest creditor, there is no need to fear either its economy or its military power. It has already sown the seeds of its own destruction.

           In 1996, there were almost no lawyers in China. By 2000, there were 110,000. There are now almost 200,000.

           With a society of lawyers, China is likely to collapse. Let's take an example. Ling Chou is riding his bicycle on Chairman Mao Boulevard. He starts to turn left, but is hit by a bicycle being ridden by Chang Liu. Under the principles of Confucianism, before there were lawyers, the two would see if each other was hurt, help out if necessary, and apologize profusely. If a bicycle was dented, the other person would fix it. If there weren't injuries or dents, they would shake hands and go their own ways. With lawyers, you don't do that. Ling grabs his lawyers; Chang grabs his own lawyers. It takes six inches of paperwork, a preliminary hearing before a magistrate, and two, maybe three continuances before the case comes before a judge. Then there are the bailiffs, marshals, clerks, typists, stenographers, and court reporters. After a three-day trial—during which three doctors from each side testify, and get paid very well for their conflicting opinions about back injuries and mental trauma—the judge decides the case. The whole thing takes a year. Maybe two.

           Now, let's look at the criminal side of law. In the past, Chinese citizens could walk down any street late at night and wouldn't even worry about a "Boo!" Now, with lawyers, you have to have criminals. So, the crime statistics go up. More lawyers show up. Some to prosecute. Some to defend. Before lawyers, China had work camps. Now there will be guards and wardens and rehabilitative counselors and parole boards and committees for prisoner rights, followed by committees for victim rights.

           With everyone suing, defending themselves from criminals, or being criminals, the Chinese won't have time to sew cheap coats or launch any wars.

           However, in the past couple of years, President Hu's government has gotten wise to the proliferation of lawyers. The licensing tests have become harder—only about one-fifth of the applicants pass them; and the annual fees have increased significantly.

           This has caused even greater problems. When lawyers get tired of being lawyers, they become politicians, just as in the U.S. And, as in the U.S., it isn't scientists, social workers, teachers, and other decent people who are running our government. Imagine what will happen when the lawyers finally take over the Chinese government. In a country with four times America's population there will be four times as many mortgage crises scandals, four times as many morals scandals, and four times the number of self-serving statements that they weren't responsible for whatever it was that went wrong in the country.

           More important, there will no longer be just one Communist Party, but at least two, each one screaming at the other one, fighting meaningless battles, and filling radio, television, and the Internet with equally meaningless blather. It'll only be a short time until the lawyer-led political system paralyzes a 4,000-year-old civilization that has given us great literature, music, sculpture, fashion, architecture, cuisine, and the use of martial arts for peaceful reasons.

           With the rise of lawyers and political parties, even America's corporations wouldn't outsource their products to a nation like that—not for all the tea (parties) in China.

 

[Walter Brasch is a multiple award-winning humor and general/politics columnist in competition sponsored by the National Society of Newspaper Columnists, Society of Professional Journalists, National Federation of Press Women, Pennsylvania Press Club, and Pennsylvania Women's Press Association. social issues columnist and He is the author of 17 books, most of which are available through amazon.com. You may contact him at walterbrasch@gmail.com]

 

 

Is China’s Economy Overheating?

Much interest – and muted apprehension – has been focused on the rapid growth of China’s economy. The Great Recession barely put a dent on the country’s continuing expansion, in stark contrast to the troubled economies of the First World.

Yet now an interesting thing is occurring; one hears murmurs about weakness in the Chinese economy, murmers which were not heard last year. Analysts are starting to advance the possibility that China’s economy is overheating. This is based upon economic indicators such as rising inflation (a classic sign of an economy running too fast).

Perhaps the most widely held view is that China faces a property bubble, whose bust would do quite a bit of damage to the economy. The New York Times, for instance, has written several articles examining excesses in China’s property boom. One article talks about a city named Ordos in northeastern China, full of recently built apartments that sit empty of residents. Such stories strongly recall tales during America’s property bubble, of empty suburban lots built around cities like Phoenix and Las Vegas, founded on the confident assumption that prices would keep on rising forever.

To be fair, there is a rationale for the speculation in Ordos. Despite its economic success, China has a lot of room to grow. Per capita income in China is still below that of Jamaica, for instance. So the new houses in Ordo will be filled, eventually, as poor peasants migrate to the cities.

Another article in the Times describes the building boom in Hainan Island – something that is harder to defend as economically rational. The Chinese government is apparently hoping to make the place a tourist destination, and such plans have set up an orgy of new construction. It is not immediately apparent, however, why Hainan Island is a better tourist spot than anyplace else in the world. In ten years its numerous golf resorts may well be languishing in red ink. The Hainan Island boom constitutes a strong indication of a property bubble.

China’s government seems to be recognizing these signs; the official rhetoric has shifted to cooling down the economy. Recently China’s central bank surprisingly raised interest rates in an attempt to do just that.

What would a property bust in China look like?

Well, China has actually had a previous property boom go awry. This was in the 1990s, and it may have temporarily lowered growth rates from ~12% to ~8% (although that bust apparently had little effect on the average Chinese person). The last time China had non-Chinese growth rates was in 1989 and 1990; the last time it had negative growth was during 1976, the year Chairman Mao Zedong died.

Given the political turmoil that occurred on both dates, a bad enough property bust might spark similar unrest. On the other hand, China’s government probably has enough domestic credibility to weather even negative economic growth. Moreover, the country’s economy probably has enough steam – the percentage of GDP in investment and savings is unparalleled in modern history – to continue growing at >6% per year even were such a bust to occur. It would take quite a shock to throw the economy off from its current upsloping course.

--Inoljt, http://mypolitikal.com/ 

 

Is China’s Economy Overheating?

Much interest – and muted apprehension – has been focused on the rapid growth of China’s economy. The Great Recession barely put a dent on the country’s continuing expansion, in stark contrast to the troubled economies of the First World.

Yet now an interesting thing is occurring; one hears murmurs about weakness in the Chinese economy, murmers which were not heard last year. Analysts are starting to advance the possibility that China’s economy is overheating. This is based upon economic indicators such as rising inflation (a classic sign of an economy running too fast).

Perhaps the most widely held view is that China faces a property bubble, whose bust would do quite a bit of damage to the economy. The New York Times, for instance, has written several articles examining excesses in China’s property boom. One article talks about a city named Ordos in northeastern China, full of recently built apartments that sit empty of residents. Such stories strongly recall tales during America’s property bubble, of empty suburban lots built around cities like Phoenix and Las Vegas, founded on the confident assumption that prices would keep on rising forever.

To be fair, there is a rationale for the speculation in Ordos. Despite its economic success, China has a lot of room to grow. Per capita income in China is still below that of Jamaica, for instance. So the new houses in Ordo will be filled, eventually, as poor peasants migrate to the cities.

Another article in the Times describes the building boom in Hainan Island – something that is harder to defend as economically rational. The Chinese government is apparently hoping to make the place a tourist destination, and such plans have set up an orgy of new construction. It is not immediately apparent, however, why Hainan Island is a better tourist spot than anyplace else in the world. In ten years its numerous golf resorts may well be languishing in red ink. The Hainan Island boom constitutes a strong indication of a property bubble.

China’s government seems to be recognizing these signs; the official rhetoric has shifted to cooling down the economy. Recently China’s central bank surprisingly raised interest rates in an attempt to do just that.

What would a property bust in China look like?

Well, China has actually had a previous property boom go awry. This was in the 1990s, and it may have temporarily lowered growth rates from ~12% to ~8% (although that bust apparently had little effect on the average Chinese person). The last time China had non-Chinese growth rates was in 1989 and 1990; the last time it had negative growth was during 1976, the year Chairman Mao Zedong died.

Given the political turmoil that occurred on both dates, a bad enough property bust might spark similar unrest. On the other hand, China’s government probably has enough domestic credibility to weather even negative economic growth. Moreover, the country’s economy probably has enough steam – the percentage of GDP in investment and savings is unparalleled in modern history – to continue growing at >6% per year even were such a bust to occur. It would take quite a shock to throw the economy off from its current upsloping course.

--Inoljt, http://mypolitikal.com/ 

 

Is China’s Economy Overheating?

Much interest – and muted apprehension – has been focused on the rapid growth of China’s economy. The Great Recession barely put a dent on the country’s continuing expansion, in stark contrast to the troubled economies of the First World.

Yet now an interesting thing is occurring; one hears murmurs about weakness in the Chinese economy, murmers which were not heard last year. Analysts are starting to advance the possibility that China’s economy is overheating. This is based upon economic indicators such as rising inflation (a classic sign of an economy running too fast).

Perhaps the most widely held view is that China faces a property bubble, whose bust would do quite a bit of damage to the economy. The New York Times, for instance, has written several articles examining excesses in China’s property boom. One article talks about a city named Ordos in northeastern China, full of recently built apartments that sit empty of residents. Such stories strongly recall tales during America’s property bubble, of empty suburban lots built around cities like Phoenix and Las Vegas, founded on the confident assumption that prices would keep on rising forever.

To be fair, there is a rationale for the speculation in Ordos. Despite its economic success, China has a lot of room to grow. Per capita income in China is still below that of Jamaica, for instance. So the new houses in Ordo will be filled, eventually, as poor peasants migrate to the cities.

Another article in the Times describes the building boom in Hainan Island – something that is harder to defend as economically rational. The Chinese government is apparently hoping to make the place a tourist destination, and such plans have set up an orgy of new construction. It is not immediately apparent, however, why Hainan Island is a better tourist spot than anyplace else in the world. In ten years its numerous golf resorts may well be languishing in red ink. The Hainan Island boom constitutes a strong indication of a property bubble.

China’s government seems to be recognizing these signs; the official rhetoric has shifted to cooling down the economy. Recently China’s central bank surprisingly raised interest rates in an attempt to do just that.

What would a property bust in China look like?

Well, China has actually had a previous property boom go awry. This was in the 1990s, and it may have temporarily lowered growth rates from ~12% to ~8% (although that bust apparently had little effect on the average Chinese person). The last time China had non-Chinese growth rates was in 1989 and 1990; the last time it had negative growth was during 1976, the year Chairman Mao Zedong died.

Given the political turmoil that occurred on both dates, a bad enough property bust might spark similar unrest. On the other hand, China’s government probably has enough domestic credibility to weather even negative economic growth. Moreover, the country’s economy probably has enough steam – the percentage of GDP in investment and savings is unparalleled in modern history – to continue growing at >6% per year even were such a bust to occur. It would take quite a shock to throw the economy off from its current upsloping course.

--Inoljt, http://mypolitikal.com/ 

 

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