by Jonathan Singer, Fri Jun 27, 2008 at 03:55:27 AM EDT
It's tough times when a party's presidential nominee manages to score just 38 percent support in his home state (even when the poll in question didn't push leaners, and thus more than a third of respondents are deemed "undecided").
Republican presidential candidate John McCain is apparently leading Democrat Barack Obama in the race for Arizona, a poll released Tuesday says.
The statewide poll found 38 percent of voters said they would probably vote for McCain, while 28 percent said they would likely back Obama. Thirty-four percent of voters were undecided.
The poll of 350 registered voters was conducted June 20-21 by the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communications at Arizona State University and Channel Eight/KAET-TV. The survey has a sampling error of plus or minus 5.2 percentage points.
The last presidential poll by KAET, taken in late April, said McCain had roughly the same advantage over Obama.
Because the overall sample size for this poll wasn't super large and the head-to-head question was only asked to half of respondents (the other half being asked their opinion of a match-up between John McCain and a Barack Obama/Hillary Clinton ticket), the margin of error for this question is fairly high. A rough estimate this morning puts it somewhere in the neighborhood of plus or minus 7.5 percentage points. However, even when that number is factored in, McCain doesn't look particularly strong judging by these numbers, with his support likely ranging from somewhere between about 30 points to about 46 points -- not the type of level of support you expect from a nominee hoping to be competitive around the country.
In short, if this is the kind of tepid support McCain is seeing in Arizona -- where voters know him and his shenanigans better than any other voters in the country outside of the Beltway -- what is his level of backing around the country going to look like come November when voters from Alaska to Florida have begun to learn about the real McCain?
by conspiracy, Wed Jun 25, 2008 at 05:01:02 AM EDT
Politico interviews Deputy Campaign Manager Steve Hildebrand who tells Ben Smith "[Obama] will focus his resources largely in 14 states George W. Bush won in 2004... hoping to score upsets in places like Virginia, Indiana, and Georgia."
"In an unusual move, Obama's campaign will also devote some resources to states it's unlikely to win, with the goal of influencing specific local contests in places like Texas and Wyoming."
Which leads to perhaps the greatest spin of the cycle. McCain spokesman Brian Rogers: "It's revealing that Barack Obama has now been forced to expand the states on his map because he's so weak in traditional Democratic targets such as West Virginia, Arkansas, Tennessee and Florida, not to mention his ongoing problems in Pennsylvania and Ohio,".
Hilarious. The whole article is very revealing of how the campaign is thinking. Also from the Chicago Tribune:
Sen. Barack Obama "could make major gains in at least nine states the Democratic ticket lost in 2004 if he can achieve a relatively modest increase in turnout among young and African-American voters,"
Long way to go yet but it is encouraging to read about all this offense.
by Jonathan Singer, Wed Jun 25, 2008 at 03:39:27 AM EDT
When news emerged that the Obama campaign was running ads in and sending a key staffer to Indiana, the first reaction from some was that this might be a "head-fake" designed to trick the McCain campaign into wasting resources in a state that will likely follow its tradition in 2008 by voting GOP on the presidential level. Maybe not. Here's SurveyUSA:
In an election today in Indiana, Barack Obama takes 48% of the vote, John McCain 47% of the vote -- a statistical tie -- according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WHAS-TV Louisville and WCPO-TV Cincinnati. Obama's 1-point lead is within the survey's 4 percentage point margin of sampling error, and these results should be reported as a tie. Among men, McCain leads by 5; among women, Obama leads by 7 -- a 12-point gender gap. Among voters age 18 to 49, Obama leads by 5; among voters 50+, McCain leads by 3. Obama leads by 22 points among voters under age 35. 16% of Republicans cross over to vote for Democrat Obama; 19% of Democrats cross over to vote for Republican McCain; Independents favor Obama by 7 points. Among those voters who say they have already made up their minds, the two candidates are tied; among the 25% who say they could still change their mind, Obama leads by 2.
Think this poll is a mere aberration, an outlier that shows Obama unusually and incorrectly strong in his neighboring state of Indiana? The Pollster.com trend estimate, which tracks all of the recent polling from the state, doesn't, showing Obama leading by an average of 48 percent to 47 percent. Neither does Real Clear Politics, which shows Obama up 47.0 percent to 46.5 percent, or Five Thirty Eight, which shows Obama up 46.5 percent to 45.4 percent and gives the Illinois Democrat at 55 percent shot of carrying Indiana (a state it now calls a "tossup").
These numbers underscore a couple of important points. First, the maps from previous years cannot be taken for granted as the starting point for this fall's election. They just can't. The country has changed and moved a significant amount during the last four years, and the internal politics in a number of states have shifted dramatically during this time (think states like Ohio and New Hampshire tending to move towards the Democrats, or a state like Louisiana moving towards the GOP). Second, campaigning matters. Nate Silver suggests this point as one explanation for the latest Indiana numbers: "Apart from Obama being a Midwesterner, the explanation for his results in Indiana may be as simple as this: the Democrats had never really bothered to compete in the state before, until the presence of an important primary there forced them to." That's spot on. You campaign somewhere, you move numbers (but not necessarily always upwards -- see: Rudy Giuliani). If you cower away and refuse to play in states you think you'll lose, you're going to lose those states.
Does this mean that Obama has Indiana in the bag because he waged a competitive primary there, because he has sent a top political staffer there, and he is willing to invest advertising dollars there? No. But at the same time, the Obama campaign has now put Indiana, a state the Democrats last carried during the 1964 presidential election and only won four times during the 20th century, into play, a big achievement that almost undoubtedly increases his shot at winning the White House come November.
by Jonathan Singer, Wed Oct 17, 2007 at 09:26:40 AM EDT
Starting today the folks over at Tech President, along with a few dozen co-sponsors (including MyDD), are putting forward a really exciting effort: 10Questions.com.
The concept is fairly simple. Record a question for a presidential candidate. Upload it to YouTube or other online video sites with the the tag "10Questions". Vote on the submitted questions. The top 10 questions will be selected to be passed on to the presidential candidates, who will post video answers. You will then vote on whether the candidate actually answered the question.
Taking a step back, the co-creators of the effort Andrew Rasiej, Micah L. Sifry, and David Colarusso explain,
Why a new online presidential forum, on top of all the others this year? Well, we believe the internet offers our democracy the chance to end the era of soundbite TV politics and start the era of community conversation. Old fashioned televised debates have their value, but TV has several inherent limits. Only a few people get to ask questions. The candidates have very little time to answer, forcing them to speak in canned sound bites. The audience has no way of providing meaningful feedback. If the candidate doesn't answer the questions, we have no way of pushing them to do so.
Now for the specifics.
Starting today, the sponsors of 10Questions are asking their millions of readers and the larger public to submit online video questions addressed to the candidates using a variety of platforms (YouTube, MySpace, Yahoo, andBlip.tv), tagging their video with the word "10Questions." The 10Questions site will then find and display those questions and enable the public to vote up or down on these submissions. At the end of four weeks, on November 14, we'll stop the voting and after a quick audit to check against ballot-stuffing, the top ten vote-getting questions will be submitted to all the major candidates.
The candidates will then have four weeks, from November 17 to December 15, to submit answers to be posted online. As those responses are posted, the public will be given the opportunity to vote again, up or down, on whether the candidates have answered the questions to their satisfaction. Users can vote on as many videos as they like, but they only get one vote per IP address. The process will end December 31.
This is an effort I'm really excited about and one that I hope the MyDD community can really get involved in. So head over to 10Questions.com today and get started.
by dannybauder, Mon Jul 30, 2007 at 04:40:56 PM EDT
H/T to the Chicago Tribune:
But Romney showed some unfamiliarity with the Internet when he discussed the problem of sexual predators and children.
"YouTube is a website that allows kids to network with one another and make friends and contact each other," Romney explained. "YouTube looked to see if they had any convicted sex offenders on their web site. They had 29,000."