by a gunslinger, Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:36:07 AM EST
Texas reminds me more and more of California.
Recall how Hillary had a lot of momentum while the EARLY VOTING was going on, then Barack started to gain traction, leading to first a closing of the polls, then a final Zogby poll showing that momentum and a LEAD.
However, the benefits of the early voting (in the primary) in CA, led to a Clinton win of about 10 points. Respondents in Zogby's poll may have WANTED to vote for Obama, but had already cast their vote for Clinton.
In Texas, there are TWO things at work. One, is of course the same thing that benefitted Hill in CA. Early voting. Obama is going to CRUSH Hillary in the early voting, which was conducted before she started trending up a bit. Secondly, Obama's ground game (especially for the caucas portion) is much stronger. Don't believe me? From Politico's Smith...
"Behind the scenes, meanwhile, the Clinton campaign was scrambling Monday to put a field operation in place for Texas's two-step electoral process, in which the primary election is followed by caucuses at each of about 8,000 precincts around the state. One aide said that while the campaign had rounded up thousands of volunteers to represent the campaign at those locations, they were still well over a thousand short.
The organizing scramble was matched by an internal struggle to tamp down flashes of public sparring between senior aides, with many damaging leaks focused on chief strategist Mark Penn. Penn did himself few favors internally Monday with an email to the Los Angeles Times in which he noted that he was responsible only for the campaign's message, not its organizing or its spending."
In the end, I think that Obama will wind up winning TX by about 5-7 points and win more delegates.
In OH...I think HRC used every arrow in the quiver and will win by about 7-9 points.
In RI...I think HRC will win by about 5-7.
In VT...I think that Obama wins by 15-21.
Net GAIN of 10-20 delegates for Obama.
Now, if this is the case...remember that I have PROMISED to not post any diaries until the end of the week, for fear of making it look like I am rubbing it in. I will hold to that guarantee, so this may well be my last diary for a while. Try not to miss me!