Texas Reminds Me of CALIFORNIA for HRC/BO!

Texas reminds me more and more of California.

Recall how Hillary had a lot of momentum while the EARLY VOTING was going on, then Barack started to gain traction, leading to first a closing of the polls, then a final Zogby poll showing that momentum and a LEAD.  

However, the benefits of the early voting (in the primary) in CA, led to a Clinton win of about 10 points.  Respondents in Zogby's poll may have WANTED to vote for Obama, but had already cast their vote for Clinton.

In Texas, there are TWO things at work.  One, is of course the same thing that benefitted Hill in CA.  Early voting.  Obama is going to CRUSH Hillary in the early voting, which was conducted before she started trending up a bit.  Secondly, Obama's ground game (especially for the caucas portion) is much stronger.  Don't believe me?  From Politico's Smith...

"Behind the scenes, meanwhile, the Clinton campaign was scrambling Monday to put a field operation in place for Texas's two-step electoral process, in which the primary election is followed by caucuses at each of about 8,000 precincts around the state. One aide said that while the campaign had rounded up thousands of volunteers to represent the campaign at those locations, they were still well over a thousand short.

The organizing scramble was matched by an internal struggle to tamp down flashes of public sparring between senior aides, with many damaging leaks focused on chief strategist Mark Penn. Penn did himself few favors internally Monday with an email to the Los Angeles Times in which he noted that he was responsible only for the campaign's message, not its organizing or its spending."

In the end, I think that Obama will wind up winning TX by about 5-7 points and win more delegates.  

In OH...I think HRC used every arrow in the quiver and will win by about 7-9 points.

In RI...I think HRC will win by about 5-7.

In VT...I think that Obama wins by 15-21.

Net GAIN of 10-20 delegates for Obama.

Now, if this is the case...remember that I have PROMISED to not post any diaries until the end of the week, for fear of making it look like I am rubbing it in.  I will hold to that guarantee, so this may well be my last diary for a while. Try not to miss me!

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*Breaking* Clinton Now Projected to Win the Ohio Primary

HC is projected to win the Ohio Primary according to final polls taken early this morning. The Nafta Blunder by the Obama campaign is resonating with voters in that state and HC has opened up a bigger lead among likely voters. Obama has found himself on the defensive on several fronts - fending off accusations that his campaign had privately told the Canadian government not to take his populist anti-free trade rhetoric too seriously, and distancing himself from a former donor, Chicago property developer Tony Rezko, who went on trial yesterday on political corruption charges.  

An Ice Storm moving across Northern Ohio could knock out power to polling stations complicating the voting process and a snow alert has been issued for the surrounding Dallas area.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/ americas/clinton-stays-cool-as-icestorm- heads-in-790950.html

Clinton does stand a good chance of winning not only Ohio on Tuesday, but Vermont and Rhode Island as well, because polls in all three states show her ahead, according to reports.

Clinton reportedly said she expects to win on Tuesday and is looking forward to Pennsylvania's primary on April 22 when 188 delegates are up for grabs.

http://www.bizjournals.com/cincinnati/st ories/2008/03/03/daily6.html

PPL Polling shows HC leading in Texas this morning. Hispanic voters are turning out in record numbers to vote for Hillary.

http://www.boston.com/news/politics/poli ticalintelligence/2008/03/clinton_gains_ i.html

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Gunslinger's Brother's Cancer...Hope?


I am looking for an Obama win, but am nervous for two compelling reasons.  One, I do not like the media cycles that I have been observing.  It seems that HRC may be gaining traction with her complaints about the media, AND with her "3 a.m." ad.  The polls and the coverage all suggest as much.  I am worried that she will be able to claim victory, even with small-margin wins, even though to actually make gains in the delgates..she needs BLOWOUTS. But with help of her insiders and media sympathy...anything is possible.  If this happens, we might be on our way to being doomed to experience 4-8 years more of the sort of infighting and bickering that have exacerbated our problems in the first place.  The stakes are higher for me perosnally...onto reason #2.

My twin brother "Steven Severson" on the site here, has had cancer for 2 years now.  it started as small cell lung cancer, which was put into remission, but has since gone to his brain.  Now, this last week...he has experienced a significant setback, andI fear that he may not make it to November to witness the election.

Steve has been volunteering for Barack (we both have) since about Xmas. He has made calls, has gone on the local Air America radio station (92.1, the Mic) to talk about Barack, and has poured all of his hopes for his future and yours into the Barack campaign.  Steve NEEDS something to look forward to, folks.

If Barack can win TX and OH and VT...it will give Steve some needed impetus to fight THAT much harder.  If he can see Hillary end her campaign, I beleive that such will turn Steve back into the hopeful, energetic volunteer he has been.  As of now, his tumor had grown by 1-2 cm, and it has effected his ability to walk, type, and talk.  On a quasi-emergency basis, we took him to the radiologist and they quickly blasted the tumor, but we won't know just HOW much motor viability he'll get back.

Pray for Steve, but (for him) more importantly...WIN THIS in OH, TX, and VT.  It WILL make ALL the DFFERENCE to HIM and to ME.  

Do it for yourselves, your families...but also do it for Steven Severson.

Rob Severson

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BREAKING: Sen. Patrick Leahy's Endorsement For President

It's Sen. Barack Obama, a huge endorsement in my opinion, considering that Leahy's a true heavy-hitter for liberals in Congress.  Not to mention the Chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee.  The breaking story just hit TPM:

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Howard Dean Movie VT Sneak Previews

Hi Gang, here's that film I've been working on for years now. Thanks again to Jerome and the community for your continuing support!

Howard Dean Movie Sneak Previews In VERMONT!

Montpelier's Savoy on Jan. 26 and Burlington's Roxy on Jan. 27 @ 11 a.m.

Monday, January 14, 2008 CONTACT: HEATH EIDEN 802-253-4422 heatheiden@aol.com

    (Stowe, Vermont)  Three years after Howard Dean's revolutionary presidential campaign ended where it started in Burlington, Vermont, two sneak previews of a movie about the movement will be shown in Montpelier and Burlington on January 26 and 27 at 11 a.m. for a small donation ($10 or "whatever you think it's worth at the end").
    The 90-minute feature film, "Dean And Me: Roadshow Of An American Primary," follows Howard Dean in his run for President through the 2006 mid-term elections.

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