Election Eve: The 2008 Senate races

Bumped - Todd

This is it.  It's time for my final look at all the 2008 Senate races.  There are 35 seats up for election because of a scenario in Wyoming and Mississippi where both seats are up, due to the passing of Craig Thomas and the resignation of Trent Lott, respectively.  Obviously, quite a few of the races are considered "safe" for the incumbent.  So what are the competitive races?

Again, just to be clear, I don't do predictions.  Every time I do, horrible things happen.  So I won't even make an actual prediction on the Virginia Senate race, because doing so would effectively jinx Mark Warner.  And with the election tomorrow, tiers no longer matter, so I'll simply rank the competitive races where party control of the seat may switch.  All others are deemed safe seats, which now include all of the Tier II and III seats from last time.

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My 2008 White House and Senate Predictions

With barely 48 hours until polls all over this country finally close on the 2008 presidential election, I figured it time to make my White House and Senate predications. I'm going to stick them here in the diaries rather than on the front page because my educated guesses are hardly worth that level of attention; all of us are arm-chair prognosticators.

I believe that Barack Obama will win the White House with 364 electoral votes and that the Democrats will pick up 7 Senate seats, giving them 57 (58, but I expect Lieberman to fly the coop). These predictions are based on polls from RealClearPolitics, statistical analysis from FiveThirtyEight, and my own understanding of history, geography, and culture.

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A look at the 2008 Senate races, mid-October edition

Bumped - Todd

With the election less than 3 weeks away from us, it's time for another look at all the 2008 Senate races.  There are 35 seats up for election because of a scenario in Wyoming and Mississippi where both seats are up, due to the passing of Craig Thomas and the resignation of Trent Lott, respectively.  Obviously, quite a few of the races are considered "safe" for the incumbent.  So what are the competitive races?

Again, just to be clear, I don't do predictions.  Every time I do, horrible things happen.  So I won't even make an actual prediction on the Virginia Senate race, because doing so would effectively jinx Mark Warner.  So, I'll rank these in terms of tiers.  The top tier will be the races where the party holding the seat has a legitimate chance of switching (but I ain't guaranteeing anything).  The second tier are races that could become top tier races, but are not at this point.  Tier III are ones where a major event would need to happen for the seat to come into play.  And the safe seats?  Well, Mike Gravel has a better shot at winning the presidency than those incumbents have of losing their races.

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VA-Sen: Warner Won't Rule Out Voting For Warner

Senator John Warner (R-VA) hosted a "Why Barack Obama and Joe Biden Are Wrong for Virginia" conference call for reporters today and responded to a question about the Virginia Senate race.

From The Politico:

"I'm watching that race, following the positions of the two candidates," John Warner told reporters on a conference call Saturday. "There have been occasions when I have supported Democratic candidates. ... But I'm not there yet." [...]

When a reporter on the call said to Warner, "So it sounds like you're open to voting for a Democrat in the Senate race, even when you're supporting Mr. McCain?"

Warner replied: "I told you very carefully: I'm watching that race, following the positions of the two candidates. I just commented: I have differing opinions in what Gilmore expressed on the rescue package. But that did not in any way indicate a lifelong support of Republican candidates in this state. There have been occasions when I have supported Democratic candidates -- you know that well. But I'm not there yet."

Not that his vote could swing the election one way or the other, of course; this one's been a done deal for months. But think about it -- this is the vote for the man who will replace him in the Senate. John Warner doesn't trust his own party to represent him in his stead -- that's very telling about the moment we find ourselves in right now.

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Senate rankings: Democrats have their 9th target

Posted on Campaign Diaries. You can also check the House ratings here.

Over the past two months, the Senate playing field has gotten much clearer, and the gap between competitive seats and sleeper races has widened.

On the one hand, Democrats have solidified their position in the top-tier. They have managed to catapult North Carolina into the toss-up category, finally reaching their goal of putting 9 GOP-held seats in play. As a series of stunning developments in Alaska left the GOP pinning its hopes on an indicted incumbent, there now are five Republican-held seats that are leaning towards Democrats. That is not to say that Democrats can take 5 seats for granted (in fact, they appear to have sealed the deal in only two contests), but a testament to the fact that Senate Democrats remain poised to have a strong night on November 4th.

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